Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 21TP15

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 21TP15    
# Created Thu Mar 28 01:19:46 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     90 observations of     90
# Arc:   4.42y
# First observation: 2019/07/04
#  Last observation: 2023/12/04
# Chi-squared of fit:   156.91 DOF:    174 RMS:  0.23
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.85    0.84
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  3.801322E-05  3.627014E-01 -1.125876E-05 -7.936137E-02  1.449521E-01 -1.409523E-01
# Covariance matrix:
  6.8680E-10 -1.8823E-10 -5.3351E-10  1.6148E-10  5.2977E-11 -2.7375E-12
 -1.8823E-10  4.2563E-10  1.4620E-10 -1.0095E-10 -1.4517E-11 -3.1319E-11
 -5.3351E-10  1.4620E-10  4.1556E-10 -1.2578E-10 -4.1195E-11  2.1290E-12
  1.6148E-10 -1.0095E-10 -1.2578E-10  2.6247E-10  1.2469E-11  1.0134E-11
  5.2977E-11 -1.4517E-11 -4.1195E-11  1.2469E-11  4.0906E-12 -2.1141E-13
 -2.7375E-12 -3.1319E-11  2.1290E-12  1.0134E-11 -2.1141E-13  6.1068E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -18.628961  -26.201252    0.792534   -0.199447   -0.591510  2458669.080475
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2458668.5000  =  2019/07/04
Mean Anomaly:          340.11914 +/-     0.000
Argument of Peri:      307.85803 +/-     0.000
Long of Asc Node:       98.27507 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            21.99305 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.59624836 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     13.32136798 +/-    0.0000
Time of Perihelion: 2459649.2411 +/-       0.0
Perihelion:           5.37852420 +/-    0.0000
Aphelion:            21.26421175 +/-    0.0000
Period (y)               48.6218 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X            6.07819149 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y           -3.88050432 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z           -2.20376024 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00033995 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00747208 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00057022 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO    7.54064251 +/-    0.0000
Geocenter to KBO      6.89895333 +/-    0.0000
# Hcoef: 13.92

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 21TP15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (21TP15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2019 07  04.579674 22 52 46.516  -27 21 18.84  23.0G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2019 07  04.589962 22 52 46.485  -27 21 21.58  23.7G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2019 07  29.473211 22 49 14.172  -28 51 30.38  22.6G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2019 07  29.483456 22 49 14.013  -28 51 33.01  22.6G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 07  21.571698 00 40 08.767  -20 57 24.65  22.3G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 07  21.582821 00 40 08.829  -20 57 26.70  22.3G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 07  21.593970 00 40 08.901  -20 57 28.73  22.6G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 07  21.605119 00 40 08.965  -20 57 31.18  22.1G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 08  14.522052 00 40 06.119  -22 28 46.98  21.5G 21TP15    F52  C~59yI      
2020 08  14.533067 00 40 06.073  -22 28 49.06  19.5G 21TP15    F52  C~59yI      
2020 08  14.543978 00 40 05.957  -22 28 52.51  21.7G 21TP15    F52  C~59yI      
2020 11  17.314216 00 12 25.571  -24 48 29.36  22.1G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 12  10.207133 00 12 56.568  -23 17 59.15  22.4G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 12  10.218110 00 12 56.648  -23 17 56.02  22.1G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 12  10.229094 00 12 56.739  -23 17 52.73  22.6G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2020 12  10.240053 00 12 56.831  -23 17 49.95  22.1G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2021 09  04.586494 02 54 08.302  -07 43 44.86  21.2G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2021 09  04.598919 02 54 08.313  -07 43 46.83  21.7G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2021 09  04.611256 02 54 08.332  -07 43 48.75  21.5G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2021 09  04.623633 02 54 08.350  -07 43 50.75  21.9G 21TP15    F51  C~59yI      
2021 09  11.545053 02 54 05.520  -08 02 38.92  21.2G 21TP15    F52  C~59yI      
2021 09  11.556523 02 54 05.483  -08 02 40.85  21.4G 21TP15    F52  C~59yI      
2021 09  11.567988 02 54 05.440  -08 02 42.87  21.5G 21TP15    F52  C~59yI      
2021 09  11.579466 02 54 05.399  -08 02 44.61  21.2G 21TP15    F52  C~59yI      
2021 09  15.483492 02 53 49.170  -08 13 38.76  21.5G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 09  15.495523 02 53 49.094  -08 13 40.80  21.4G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 09  15.507603 02 53 49.026  -08 13 42.69  21.6G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 09  15.519648 02 53 48.948  -08 13 44.78  21.4G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 09  30.42270  02 51 14.733  -08 54 48.30  21.2w 21TP15    F51  C~59yJ      
2021 09  30.43626  02 51 14.531  -08 54 50.40  21.3w 21TP15    F51  C~59yJ      
2021 09  30.44981  02 51 14.316  -08 54 52.48  21.2w 21TP15    F51  C~59yJ      
2021 09  30.46333  02 51 14.102  -08 54 54.79  21.3w 21TP15    F51  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.400843 02 46 54.62   -09 27 31.4   21.3G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.407397 02 46 54.44   -09 27 31.9   20.7G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.413865 02 46 54.30   -09 27 32.2   21.3G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.420263 02 46 54.19   -09 27 33.2   20.9G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.433990 02 46 53.945  -09 27 35.17  21.4G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.445514 02 46 53.695  -09 27 36.55  21.3G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.455888 02 46 53.41   -09 27 37.7   21.3G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.457037 02 46 53.433  -09 27 37.66  21.7G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.468554 02 46 53.166  -09 27 39.09  21.4G 21TP15    F52  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.468879 02 46 53.06   -09 27 39.7   21.0G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  14.482103 02 46 52.78   -09 27 40.8   21.4G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  15.396616 02 46 32.71   -09 29 28.0   21.2G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  15.420436 02 46 32.18   -09 29 30.7   21.0G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  15.433781 02 46 31.89   -09 29 32.0   21.1G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  15.446061 02 46 31.59   -09 29 33.1   21.7G 21TP15    G96  C~59yJ      
2021 10  31.300343 02 40 05.43   -09 50 18.6   20.8G 21TP15    G96  C~5Br8      
2021 10  31.305533 02 40 05.28   -09 50 18.9   21.2G 21TP15    G96  C~5Br8      
2021 10  31.310736 02 40 05.14   -09 50 19.0   20.8G 21TP15    G96  C~5Br8      
2021 10  31.315935 02 40 05.02   -09 50 19.4   21.4G 21TP15    G96  C~5Br8      
2021 11  08.394550 02 36 36.231  -09 52 13.68  21.2w 21TP15    F51  C~5Br8      
2021 11  08.405897 02 36 35.936  -09 52 13.47  21.4w 21TP15    F51  C~5Br8      
2021 11  08.417285 02 36 35.629  -09 52 13.31  21.1w 21TP15    F51  C~5Br8      
2021 11  08.428640 02 36 35.331  -09 52 13.34  21.1w 21TP15    F51  C~5Br8      
2021 11  12.378564 02 34 54.907  -09 50 42.28  21.2w 21TP15    F51  C~5Fzf      
2021 11  12.390228 02 34 54.608  -09 50 41.97  21.1w 21TP15    F51  C~5Fzf      
2021 11  12.401907 02 34 54.310  -09 50 41.57  21.2w 21TP15    F51  C~5Fzf      
2021 11  12.413573 02 34 54.006  -09 50 41.13  21.0w 21TP15    F51  C~5Fzf      
2021 12  04.259611 02 26 58.69   -09 12 16.6   21.7G 21TP15    G96  C~5JFL      
2021 12  04.264795 02 26 58.63   -09 12 15.0   21.1G 21TP15    G96  C~5JFL      
2021 12  04.270008 02 26 58.56   -09 12 13.5   21.0G 21TP15    G96  C~5JFL      
2021 12  04.275501 02 26 58.40   -09 12 13.0   21.9G 21TP15    G96  C~5JFL      
2022 10  28.613381 05 11 46.594  +10 39 23.61  21.2w 21TP15    F51  C~5zIO      
2022 10  28.619950 05 11 46.505  +10 39 23.83  21.2w 21TP15    F51  C~5zIO      
2022 10  28.626458 05 11 46.426  +10 39 23.91  21.1w 21TP15    F51  C~5zIO      
2022 11  30.349534 04 59 47.015  +11 04 51.06  20.9G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 11  30.354666 04 59 46.878  +11 04 51.67  21.2G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 11  30.359817 04 59 46.716  +11 04 51.31  20.9G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 11  30.364961 04 59 46.576  +11 04 52.32  20.9G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 12  17.219422 04 51 57.575  +11 33 15.84  21.2G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 12  17.225041 04 51 57.449  +11 33 16.42  20.9G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 12  17.230641 04 51 57.265  +11 33 16.88  21.4G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 12  17.236237 04 51 57.157  +11 33 18.18  21.7G 21TP15    G96  C~67Jp      
2022 12  26.246346 04 48 04.806  +11 53 06.32  20.8G 21TP15    G96  C~69gD      
2022 12  26.251958 04 48 04.698  +11 53 07.30  21.5G 21TP15    G96  C~69gD      
2022 12  26.257563 04 48 04.543  +11 53 08.05  21.3G 21TP15    G96  C~69gD      
2022 12  26.263175 04 48 04.399  +11 53 08.77  20.9G 21TP15    G96  C~69gD      
2023 01  13.241894 04 42 06.453  +12 41 33.51  21.5w 21TP15    F52  C~6BCA      
2023 01  13.250763 04 42 06.275  +12 41 34.73  21.5G 21TP15    G96  C~6BCA      
2023 01  13.253487 04 42 06.285  +12 41 35.45  21.4w 21TP15    F52  C~6BCA      
2023 01  13.255951 04 42 06.156  +12 41 35.66  21.0G 21TP15    G96  C~6BCA      
2023 01  13.261125 04 42 06.077  +12 41 36.02  21.1G 21TP15    G96  C~6BCA      
2023 01  13.265127 04 42 06.096  +12 41 37.60  21.2w 21TP15    F52  C~6BCA      
2023 01  13.266298 04 42 05.980  +12 41 38.22  21.2G 21TP15    G96  C~6BCA      
2023 01  13.276892 04 42 05.917  +12 41 39.72  21.3w 21TP15    F52  C~6BCA      
2023 12  04.432878 07 14 06.761  +23 59 39.19  22.1w 21TP15    F52  C~7XPt      
2023 12  04.445120 07 14 06.541  +23 59 41.40  21.8w 21TP15    F52  C~7XPt      
2023 12  04.457370 07 14 06.283  +23 59 43.31  21.7w 21TP15    F52  C~7XPt      
2023 12  04.469685 07 14 06.070  +23 59 44.92  21.9w 21TP15    F52  C~7XPt      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.62
     2   0.0000      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.05
     3   0.0682      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.17
     4   0.0682      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.15
     5   1.0486      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.18
     6   1.0486      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.01
     7   1.0486      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.22
     8   1.0487      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.01
     9   1.1141      0.00    -0.25       0.00    -0.29
    10   1.1142      0.00     0.36       0.00     0.37
    11   1.1142      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.36
    12   1.3737      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.33
    13   1.4364      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.02
    14   1.4364      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.00
    15   1.4364      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.14
    16   1.4364      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.23
    17   2.1711      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.05
    18   2.1712      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.04
    19   2.1712      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
    20   2.1712      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.05
    21   2.1902      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.01
    22   2.1902      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
    23   2.1902      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.12
    24   2.1903      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.06
    25   2.2010      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.13
    26   2.2010      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.14
    27   2.2010      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.01
    28   2.2011      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.04
    29   2.2419      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.05
    30   2.2419      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.00
    31   2.2419      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.06
    32   2.2420      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.11
    33   2.2801      0.00     0.26       0.00     0.05
    34   2.2802      0.00    -0.23       0.00     0.32
    35   2.2802      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.78
    36   2.2802      0.00     0.35       0.00     0.54
    37   2.2802      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.12
    38   2.2803      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.13
    39   2.2803      0.00     0.63       0.00     0.23
    40   2.2803      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.12
    41   2.2803      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.06
    42   2.2803      0.00    -0.26       0.00    -0.25
    43   2.2804      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.20
    44   2.2829      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.44
    45   2.2829      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.42
    46   2.2830      0.00     0.31       0.00    -0.20
    47   2.2830      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.10
    48   2.3264      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.05
    49   2.3264      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.15
    50   2.3264      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.06
    51   2.3265      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.26
    52   2.3486      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.11
    53   2.3486      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.02
    54   2.3486      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.02
    55   2.3487      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.13
    56   2.3595      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.11
    57   2.3595      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.01
    58   2.3595      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.00
    59   2.3596      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.02
    60   2.4194      0.00    -0.72       0.00    -0.68
    61   2.4194      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.01
    62   2.4194      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.60
    63   2.4194      0.00    -0.85       0.00     0.14
    64   3.3184      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.10
    65   3.3184      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
    66   3.3184      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.03
    67   3.4080      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.21
    68   3.4080      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.41
    69   3.4080      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.37
    70   3.4080      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.23
    71   3.4542      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.09
    72   3.4542      0.00     0.29       0.00    -0.02
    73   3.4542      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.24
    74   3.4542      0.00     0.56       0.00     0.38
    75   3.4789      0.00    -0.41       0.00    -0.39
    76   3.4789      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.21
    77   3.4789      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.25
    78   3.4789      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.33
    79   3.5282      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.15
    80   3.5282      0.00     0.57       0.00     0.12
    81   3.5282      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.00
    82   3.5282      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.12
    83   3.5282      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.44
    84   3.5282      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.06
    85   3.5282      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.84
    86   3.5283      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.06
    87   4.4185      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.23
    88   4.4185      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.11
    89   4.4186      0.00    -0.27       0.00     0.16
    90   4.4186      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.11

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

21TP15    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        13.254    13.254    13.254
ecceobj         0.598     0.598     0.598
incobj         22.033    22.033    22.033
qmin            5.296     5.326     5.220
qmax           21.182    21.182    35.500
amean          10.728    11.165    15.122
amin            9.373     8.506    11.517
amax           13.254    13.254    20.532
emean           0.476     0.497     0.632
emin            0.399     0.357     0.547
emax            0.598     0.598     0.729
imean          19.133    20.487    19.610
imin           16.693    19.451    18.305
imax           20.476    21.075    20.521
excite_mean     0.579     0.610     0.716
fracstop        0.002     0.001     0.002
cjmean          3.829     3.740     3.057

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       182.6     248.8     166.3
kozaiamp        170.5     173.7     174.6