Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 21DS15

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 21DS15    
# Created Fri Mar 29 01:19:28 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     41 observations of     41
# Arc:  18.37y
# First observation: 2005/09/06
#  Last observation: 2024/01/19
# Chi-squared of fit:    21.10 DOF:     76 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.27    0.39
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.590063E-05  2.299794E-02 -1.094624E-06 -1.024710E-03  2.349628E-02  1.388834E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  4.4306E-13 -6.5026E-14 -7.4987E-15  2.1326E-15 -2.5375E-14 -9.8019E-14
 -6.5026E-14  2.4114E-14  3.4340E-15 -9.6522E-16  4.9360E-14  4.6572E-14
 -7.4987E-15  3.4340E-15  2.8924E-13 -1.9115E-14  6.8097E-15  7.0740E-15
  2.1326E-15 -9.6522E-16 -1.9115E-14  1.4468E-15 -1.8835E-15 -1.9898E-15
 -2.5375E-14  4.9360E-14  6.8097E-15 -1.8835E-15  1.9898E-13  9.6865E-14
 -9.8019E-14  4.6572E-14  7.0740E-15 -1.9898E-15  9.6865E-14  9.5722E-14
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    0.086656   96.049790    0.938428   -0.000461    0.377418  2453620.079511
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2453620.5000  =  2005/09/07
Mean Anomaly:           49.26789 +/-     0.049
Argument of Peri:      124.65773 +/-     0.054
Long of Asc Node:      276.74507 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             2.54856 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.04562290 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     43.43052804 +/-    0.0030
Time of Perihelion: 2439313.3699 +/-      14.2
Perihelion:          41.44910126 +/-    0.0031
Aphelion:            45.41195482 +/-    0.0034
Period (y)              286.2206 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -3.51733483 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Y           42.04491897 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Z            0.06432907 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00268010 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00012801 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00011914 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   42.19181218 +/-    0.0008
Geocenter to KBO     42.55990808 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  5.95

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 21DS15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (21DS15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2005 09  06.578768 06 26 22.47   +23 23 15.3   22.2V 21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2005 09  06.584417 06 26 22.49   +23 23 15.3         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2005 09  06.590174 06 26 22.51   +23 23 15.3         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2011 02  06.273638 06 48 28.30   +22 44 05.0   22.0r 21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2014 03  29.028760 07 03 47.77   +22 12 44.4   22.2r 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2014 03  29.030844 07 03 47.77   +22 12 44.4   22.1r 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2016 01  06.308092 07 19 43.59   +21 38 35.0         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2016 01  06.335538 07 19 43.44   +21 38 35.4         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2016 01  06.362377 07 19 43.30   +21 38 35.5         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2016 01  06.494470 07 19 42.61   +21 38 36.7         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2016 01  06.521425 07 19 42.48   +21 38 36.8         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2016 01  06.548333 07 19 42.34   +21 38 37.0         21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2018 10  17.377068 07 40 18.39   +20 45 27.7   21.6z 21DS15    W84  C~5bqD      
2019 02  06.181352 07 33 57.32   +20 58 18.3   22.7V 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2019 02  06.183436 07 33 57.31   +20 58 18.4   22.7V 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2019 03  01.151512 07 32 27.09   +21 01 40.8   22.3V 21DS15    W84  C~5bqD      
2019 03  04.036685 07 32 18.40   +21 02 00.8   22.4g 21DS15    W84  C~5bqD      
2019 03  05.035738 07 32 15.56   +21 02 07.3   23.0g 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2019 03  05.037496 07 32 15.55   +21 02 07.3   22.9g 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2020 02  26.060211 07 38 08.94   +20 45 13.8   22.8V 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2020 02  26.062288 07 38 08.93   +20 45 13.8   22.9V 21DS15    W84  C~5Jzg      
2021 02  17.22937  07 44 08.954  +20 27 15.12  22.5r 21DS15    568  C~5bqD      
2021 02  17.40333  07 44 08.223  +20 27 16.95  22.5r 21DS15    568  C~5Jzg      
2021 03  09.04612  07 43 01.719  +20 30 07.57  22.6G 21DS15    304  C~5bqD      
2021 03  09.10083  07 43 01.573  +20 30 08.06  22.7G 21DS15    304  C~5bqD      
2021 03  17.09506  07 42 43.460  +20 30 56.29  22.8r 21DS15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 03  18.00923  07 42 41.760  +20 31 01.06  22.8r 21DS15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 04  12.00354  07 42 26.345  +20 31 53.63  22.9r 21DS15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 12  02.28312  07 55 31.364  +19 54 53.40  22.5r 21DS15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 12  06.25187  07 55 18.023  +19 55 24.72  22.4r 21DS15    304  C~5Jzg      
2023 01  13.357361 07 57 54.158  +19 44 07.04  21.8w 21DS15    F52  C~6BBn      
2023 01  13.368948 07 57 54.112  +19 44 07.00  21.9w 21DS15    F52  C~6BBn      
2023 01  13.380529 07 57 54.048  +19 44 07.20  21.9w 21DS15    F52  C~6BBn      
2023 01  13.392206 07 57 53.992  +19 44 07.30  21.8w 21DS15    F52  C~6BBn      
2024 01  10.73253  08 03 33.90   +19 24 28.9   22.4w 21DS15    O18  C~7gyj      
2024 01  10.74120  08 03 33.85   +19 24 29.2   22.0w 21DS15    O18  C~7gyj      
2024 01  10.74990  08 03 33.81   +19 24 29.1   22.5w 21DS15    O18  C~7gyj      
2024 01  19.560215 08 02 49.461  +19 26 33.94  22.0w 21DS15    F52  C~7gyj      
2024 01  19.572736 08 02 49.390  +19 26 33.90  21.9w 21DS15    F52  C~7gyj      
2024 01  19.585236 08 02 49.343  +19 26 34.29  21.8w 21DS15    F52  C~7gyj      
2024 01  19.597815 08 02 49.273  +19 26 34.58  21.9w 21DS15    F52  C~7gyj      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.09
     2   0.0000      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.10
     3   0.0000      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.11
     4   5.4174      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.26
     5   8.5570      0.00     0.20       0.00    -0.01
     6   8.5570      0.00     0.20       0.00    -0.01
     7  10.3319      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.02
     8  10.3320      0.00    -0.23       0.00     0.16
     9  10.3321      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.00
    10  10.3324      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.04
    11  10.3325      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.19
    12  10.3326      0.00     0.20       0.00    -0.23
    13  13.1110      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.06
    14  13.4171      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.06
    15  13.4171      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.02
    16  13.4800      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.06
    17  13.4879      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.07
    18  13.4906      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.04
    19  13.4906      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.02
    20  14.4709      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.08
    21  14.4709      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.06
    22  15.4487      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.14
    23  15.4492      0.00    -0.27       0.00    -0.11
    24  15.5030      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.11
    25  15.5031      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.01
    26  15.5250      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.09
    27  15.5275      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
    28  15.5960      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.01
    29  16.2374      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.09
    30  16.2482      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.39
    31  17.3519      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.22
    32  17.3519      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.02
    33  17.3520      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.06
    34  17.3520      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.00
    35  18.3440      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.13
    36  18.3440      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.05
    37  18.3441      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.17
    38  18.3682      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.03
    39  18.3682      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.18
    40  18.3683      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.03
    41  18.3683      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.15

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

21DS15    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        43.699    43.699    43.699
ecceobj         0.053     0.053     0.053
incobj          2.542     2.542     2.542
qmin           40.263    40.271    40.256
qmax           46.949    46.947    46.948
amean          43.484    43.484    43.484
amin           43.143    43.153    43.137
amax           43.843    43.843    43.845
emean           0.053     0.053     0.053
emin            0.034     0.034     0.034
emax            0.071     0.071     0.071
imean           4.282     4.282     4.282
imin            3.433     3.434     3.434
imax            5.078     5.077     5.079
excite_mean     0.092     0.092     0.092
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.085     3.085     3.085

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       188.7     188.8     188.7
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     179.9