The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VY184 # Created Tue May 7 01:17:02 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 5 observations of 5 # Arc: 31.95d # First observation: 2015/11/07 # Last observation: 2015/12/09 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000000 0.051605 -0.000000 0.019349 0.037155 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 2.87 DOF: 5 RMS: 0.13 # Min/Max residuals: -0.30 0.29 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.727539E-05 3.830171E-02 8.154891E-06 1.804614E-02 3.495674E-02 2.021120E-03 # Covariance matrix: 4.3401E-11 8.7278E-08 2.7777E-12 9.3691E-09 1.6061E-08 -1.1410E-07 8.7278E-08 1.7774E-04 5.6470E-09 1.9049E-05 3.2648E-05 -2.5645E-04 2.7777E-12 5.6470E-09 6.6759E-13 6.0095E-10 1.0399E-09 -7.0625E-09 9.3691E-09 1.9049E-05 6.0095E-10 2.0459E-06 3.5073E-06 -2.4070E-05 1.6061E-08 3.2648E-05 1.0399E-09 3.5073E-06 6.0134E-06 -4.0285E-05 -1.1410E-07 -2.5645E-04 -7.0625E-09 -2.4070E-05 -4.0285E-05 3.1815E-03 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 10.383907 30.039379 -0.242672 0.174000 -0.948622 2457333.736799 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457330.5000 = 2015/11/04 Mean Anomaly: 24.63903 +/- 186.575 Argument of Peri: 351.90933 +/- 345.878 Long of Asc Node: 10.19152 +/- 5.202 Inclination: 27.02425 +/- 5.772 Eccentricity: 0.11037234 +/- 0.6902 Semi-Major Axis: 32.75790368 +/- 12.3423 Time of Perihelion: 2452643.5143 +/- 103939.1 Perihelion: 29.14233727 +/- 25.1345 Aphelion: 36.37347009 +/- 26.4386 Period (y) 187.4918 +/- 105.96 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 25.06824780 +/- 1.7088 Ecliptic Y 14.77813191 +/- 0.9880 Ecliptic Z 5.15639096 +/- 0.3617 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00158886 +/- 0.0039 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00254063 +/- 0.0020 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00141882 +/- 0.0008 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 29.55331789 +/- 1.5327 Geocenter to KBO 28.60678875 +/- 2.0068 # Hcoef: 9.76
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VY184. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VY184) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 11 07.23601 01 36 12.860 +21 10 33.52 24.3r 15VY184 568 C~3wqO 2015 11 07.33054 01 36 12.213 +21 10 30.42 24.4r 15VY184 568 C~3wqO 2015 11 07.44914 01 36 11.405 +21 10 26.61 24.4r 15VY184 568 C~3wqO 2015 12 09.16465 01 33 16.333 +20 53 21.02 15VY184 304 C~3wqO 2015 12 09.18769 01 33 16.280 +20 53 20.50 15VY184 304 C~3wqO
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
2 0.0003 -9.55 -0.04 0.46 -0.03
3 0.0006 -21.46 0.02 1.09 0.02
4 0.0874 -2678.33 -0.30 -40.65 0.03
5 0.0875 -2679.21 0.29 -40.86 -0.03
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VY184 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0