Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VY172

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VY172   
# Created Fri Mar 29 01:18:34 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     44 observations of     44
# Arc:   4.94y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2019/10/26
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000272   0.022771  -0.000007   0.000496   0.023316   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    11.38 DOF:     82 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.33    0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.510935E-05  2.264719E-02  3.522700E-07  4.946093E-04  2.340487E-02 -4.007000E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3770E-13 -2.0756E-13  2.9223E-15 -3.5007E-15 -6.1492E-14 -1.4126E-12
 -2.0756E-13  2.2582E-13 -3.4341E-15  4.1769E-15  6.3378E-14  1.6871E-12
  2.9223E-15 -3.4341E-15  9.7519E-14 -4.0482E-14 -1.7665E-15 -2.9265E-14
 -3.5007E-15  4.1769E-15 -4.0482E-14  2.5682E-14  1.4912E-15  3.5277E-14
 -6.1492E-14  6.3378E-14 -1.7665E-15  1.4912E-15  1.2534E-13  5.8484E-13
 -1.4126E-12  1.6871E-12 -2.9265E-14  3.5277E-14  5.8484E-13  1.4241E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.247235   48.147171   -0.110701   -0.021246   -0.983020  2456978.885908
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          335.91252 +/-     0.208
Argument of Peri:      341.88763 +/-     0.228
Long of Asc Node:       92.48425 +/-     0.009
Inclination:             1.74893 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.04137242 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     45.41017408 +/-    0.0028
Time of Perihelion: 2464449.0428 +/-      64.7
Perihelion:          43.53144531 +/-    0.0042
Aphelion:            47.28890285 +/-    0.0044
Period (y)              306.0116 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           29.07142405 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Y           32.62527491 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z           -0.93001355 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00200800 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00172868 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00005897 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   43.70836516 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     42.72615970 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  7.57

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VY172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VY172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.38513  03 04 11.238  +16 02 11.05  23.8r 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2014 11  17.49897  03 04 10.693  +16 02 08.81  23.5r 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2014 11  19.28749  03 04 02.290  +16 01 34.93  23.8r 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2014 11  23.39103  03 03 43.197  +16 00 18.58  23.8r 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 08  11.59273  03 13 47.092  +16 43 59.32  24.4w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 09  06.62350  03 13 42.735  +16 43 05.55  24.2w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 09  12.51312  03 13 33.418  +16 42 21.25  24.4w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  07.43992  03 12 23.835  +16 37 20.55  24.7w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  07.44703  03 12 23.810  +16 37 20.68  24.8w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  08.45165  03 12 20.109  +16 37 05.32  24.6w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  08.51072  03 12 19.866  +16 37 04.09  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  07.35903  03 10 10.180  +16 28 18.25  24.1r 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  07.40112  03 10 09.977  +16 28 17.42  23.9r 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  07.44330  03 10 09.772  +16 28 16.66  23.6r 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  10.52886  03 09 55.083  +16 27 18.23  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  17.37547  03 09 22.470  +16 25 09.53  24.4w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  17.42215  03 09 22.242  +16 25 08.71  24.5w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 12  06.38432  03 07 55.830  +16 19 34.12  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 12  13.31874  03 07 27.362  +16 17 46.61  24.4w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 12  13.37723  03 07 27.124  +16 17 45.68  24.0w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 01  01.37186  03 06 23.718  +16 13 55.67  24.3w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 01  07.31862  03 06 09.249  +16 13 07.07  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 02  04.29505  03 05 43.108  +16 12 15.20  24.4w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 02  04.30157  03 05 43.125  +16 12 15.21  24.4w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 02  10.28486  03 05 47.084  +16 12 43.75  24.1w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 09  06.60560  03 18 49.688  +17 04 43.54  24.4w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 09  26.59656  03 18 07.205  +17 01 38.01  24.0w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  10.40230  03 17 20.589  +16 58 27.39  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  10.46065  03 17 20.364  +16 58 26.50  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  27.49100  03 16 08.654  +16 53 41.98  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  27.49679  03 16 08.629  +16 53 41.91  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 11  02.59707  03 15 40.420  +16 51 51.83  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 11  02.60285  03 15 40.390  +16 51 51.59  23.9w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 11  03.51606  03 15 36.104  +16 51 34.99  24.0w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 11  03.52184  03 15 36.071  +16 51 34.90  24.1w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 12  24.29598  03 11 53.801  +16 37 42.18  24.0w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  02.39822  03 11 26.623  +16 36 08.74        15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  26.28489  03 10 47.979  +16 34 19.30  24.0w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  26.32220  03 10 47.956  +16 34 19.28  24.0w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 09  23.57901  03 23 26.811  +17 23 39.55  24.5w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 09  23.58734  03 23 26.797  +17 23 39.05  24.8w 15VY172   568  C~2nwF      
2019 10  26.248320 03 31 58.562  +17 57 57.77  24.0G 15VY172   G37  C~3cuO      
2019 10  26.339080 03 31 58.171  +17 57 56.17        15VY172   G37  C~3cuO      
2019 10  26.436070 03 31 57.725  +17 57 54.56        15VY172   G37  C~3cuO      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.00
     2   0.0003     -8.17     0.03       0.02    -0.07
     3   0.0052   -133.96    -0.17       0.92    -0.08
     4   0.0164   -419.62     0.02       3.66    -0.01
     5   0.7316   8661.55     0.04     173.14    -0.02
     6   0.8028   8586.82    -0.10     137.84     0.02
     7   0.8190   8445.78     0.04     130.58     0.00
     8   0.8872   7400.37     0.05     106.39    -0.25
     9   0.8872   7400.06     0.13     106.61    -0.02
    10   0.8900   7344.62     0.02     105.98     0.03
    11   0.8901   7340.92    -0.33     105.73    -0.21
    12   0.9719   5401.60     0.09      98.52     0.15
    13   0.9720   5398.56     0.08      98.51     0.11
    14   0.9721   5395.51     0.07      98.57     0.15
    15   0.9805   5176.14     0.02      99.19     0.01
    16   0.9993   4689.34     0.06     101.82    -0.03
    17   0.9994   4685.95     0.04     101.92     0.03
    18   1.0513   3397.70     0.06     116.77    -0.03
    19   1.0703   2973.97     0.05     124.81     0.01
    20   1.0705   2970.42    -0.02     124.84    -0.05
    21   1.1225   2029.14    -0.04     152.78     0.00
    22   1.1388   1815.39     0.04     163.08     0.09
    23   1.2154   1439.05    -0.17     216.41     0.14
    24   1.2154   1439.28     0.03     216.35     0.07
    25   1.2318   1501.95    -0.08     228.15     0.06
    26   1.8048  13191.44     0.02     237.70    -0.00
    27   1.8596  12552.46     0.03     216.25    -0.02
    28   1.8974  11854.78     0.01     205.98     0.00
    29   1.8975  11851.42     0.03     205.96    -0.01
    30   1.9442  10780.60     0.01     200.03    -0.01
    31   1.9442  10780.24     0.04     200.05     0.01
    32   1.9609  10359.53     0.08     199.98     0.04
    33   1.9609  10359.06     0.01     199.86    -0.08
    34   1.9634  10295.17     0.04     199.99    -0.03
    35   1.9634  10294.69    -0.03     200.03     0.01
    36   2.1024   6989.60    -0.08     242.47    -0.01
    37   2.1273   6587.76     0.01     256.85    -0.04
    38   2.1927   6022.68     0.03     300.29     0.01
    39   2.1928   6022.36     0.02     300.36    -0.00
    40   2.8506  17342.84    -0.16     321.10     0.31
    41   2.8507  17342.52    -0.15     320.67    -0.12
    42   4.9387  25019.27    -0.02     507.86     0.12
    43   4.9390  25013.38     0.14     507.65    -0.11
    44   4.9392  25006.72    -0.04     507.63    -0.14

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VY172    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        45.763    45.771    45.754
ecceobj         0.046     0.046     0.046
incobj          1.749     1.749     1.749
qmin           42.600    42.642    42.640
qmax           48.353    48.422    48.395
amean          45.401    45.410    45.393
amin           45.049    45.060    45.036
amax           45.772    45.784    45.771
emean           0.044     0.044     0.044
emin            0.031     0.031     0.031
emax            0.057     0.058     0.057
imean           0.409     0.408     0.410
imin            0.268     0.266     0.268
imax            0.536     0.536     0.537
excite_mean     0.045     0.045     0.045
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.116     3.116     3.116

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       151.5     152.3     151.4
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0