Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VS166

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VS166   
# Created Wed Dec  8 02:13:40 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     46 observations of     46
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000052   0.018164   0.000002   0.000804   0.021173   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     9.06 DOF:     86 RMS:  0.08
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.16    0.29
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.428659E-05  1.834805E-02  4.577699E-07  8.135595E-04  2.133716E-02  1.673549E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.7796E-13 -2.9734E-13  5.1441E-15 -9.3595E-15 -1.5959E-13 -3.9357E-12
 -2.9734E-13  4.2903E-13 -8.9379E-15  1.6369E-14  2.5976E-13  6.8724E-12
  5.1441E-15 -8.9379E-15  1.5334E-13 -8.3405E-14 -6.1948E-15 -1.6526E-13
 -9.3595E-15  1.6369E-14 -8.3405E-14  5.7810E-14  1.0885E-14  3.0380E-13
 -1.5959E-13  2.5976E-13 -6.1948E-15  1.0885E-14  2.5548E-13  4.6164E-12
 -3.9357E-12  6.8724E-12 -1.6526E-13  3.0380E-13  4.6164E-12  1.2743E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.041428   47.731384   -0.116289   -0.017711   -0.982457  2456978.797448
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          131.36026 +/-     0.194
Argument of Peri:      196.61394 +/-     0.190
Long of Asc Node:       69.74190 +/-     0.005
Inclination:             2.73692 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.13101512 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     43.69241246 +/-    0.0040
Time of Perihelion: 2418478.6356 +/-      56.7
Perihelion:          37.96804600 +/-    0.0152
Aphelion:            49.41677892 +/-    0.0155
Period (y)              288.8133 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           32.08931890 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y           35.48242465 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Z           -0.85181059 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00160077 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00173884 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00010057 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   47.84822283 +/-    0.0008
Geocenter to KBO     46.86660000 +/-    0.0011
# Hcoef:  7.34

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VS166. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VS166) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.29667  03 02 17.225  +16 07 07.87  24.5r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2014 11  17.40560  03 02 16.758  +16 07 05.97  24.1r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2014 11  19.31306  03 02 08.422  +16 06 32.51  24.5r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2014 11  23.41643  03 01 50.676  +16 05 21.41  24.2r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 08  11.62323  03 10 40.503  +16 44 50.62  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 09  07.53281  03 10 31.162  +16 43 51.76  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 09  12.52956  03 10 23.012  +16 43 15.68  24.2w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 10  07.47166  03 09 16.046  +16 38 34.48  24.0w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 10  08.47583  03 09 12.565  +16 38 20.11  24.6w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 10  08.53403  03 09 12.356  +16 38 19.32  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 11  06.29151  03 07 15.799  +16 30 28.45  23.8r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 11  06.35485  03 07 15.527  +16 30 27.30  24.1r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 11  06.42547  03 07 15.205  +16 30 26.00  24.3r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 11  06.49480  03 07 14.899  +16 30 24.88  24.1r 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 11  07.51356  03 07 10.387  +16 30 06.85  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 11  17.27960  03 06 27.221  +16 27 15.73  24.2w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 11  17.32888  03 06 27.006  +16 27 14.89  24.2w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 12  06.40765  03 05 06.527  +16 22 01.22  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 12  13.34220  03 04 40.229  +16 20 20.87  24.2w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2015 12  13.40075  03 04 40.017  +16 20 20.07  24.3w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 01  01.39556  03 03 41.426  +16 16 44.05  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 01  07.34177  03 03 28.027  +16 15 57.96  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 02  04.27190  03 03 03.332  +16 15 03.52  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 02  10.26162  03 03 06.747  +16 15 28.32  24.8w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 09  07.55050  03 14 36.136  +17 02 53.49        15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 09  26.61279  03 13 55.456  +17 00 03.39  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 10  10.42589  03 13 11.010  +16 57 04.29  24.3w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 10  10.48430  03 13 10.798  +16 57 03.48  24.6w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 10  10.50790  03 13 10.712  +16 57 03.15  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 10  27.51417  03 12 03.511  +16 52 37.06  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 10  27.52577  03 12 03.461  +16 52 36.78  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 11  03.53920  03 11 33.195  +16 50 38.38  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 11  03.55078  03 11 33.139  +16 50 38.09  20.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 12  28.39306  03 07 56.340  +16 36 57.60  24.8w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 12  28.40104  03 07 56.306  +16 36 57.52  24.7w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 12  29.35861  03 07 53.682  +16 36 48.24  24.6w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2016 12  29.36878  03 07 53.659  +16 36 48.19  24.8w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 01  01.25561  03 07 46.141  +16 36 22.03  24.3w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 01  01.26608  03 07 46.110  +16 36 21.84  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 01  02.36563  03 07 43.399  +16 36 12.46  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 01  02.37586  03 07 43.368  +16 36 12.33  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 01  26.27054  03 07 07.808  +16 34 26.48  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 01  26.28489  03 07 07.807  +16 34 26.45  24.6w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 09  15.60092  03 18 29.072  +17 20 42.94  24.4w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 09  22.58685  03 18 13.677  +17 19 40.69  24.2w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      
2017 12  16.38250  03 12 42.257  +16 58 39.33  24.5w 15VS166   568  C~2lVg      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.03
     2   0.0003     -6.99     0.11       0.05    -0.03
     3   0.0055   -131.69    -0.01       1.38     0.05
     4   0.0168   -397.12    -0.02       4.41    -0.01
     5   0.7319   7586.93    -0.07     195.80    -0.02
     6   0.8056   7441.68    -0.14     175.13    -0.01
     7   0.8193   7319.06    -0.05     171.85    -0.00
     8   0.8875   6315.56    -0.13     160.41     0.07
     9   0.8903   6263.47     0.00     160.10    -0.00
    10   0.8905   6260.36     0.01     160.15     0.04
    11   0.9692   4518.54     0.16     161.86     0.10
    12   0.9694   4514.46     0.29     161.82     0.01
    13   0.9696   4509.65     0.19     161.83    -0.03
    14   0.9697   4505.11     0.28     161.95     0.05
    15   0.9725   4437.73    -0.04     162.30    -0.01
    16   0.9993   3793.44    -0.09     167.29    -0.01
    17   0.9994   3790.24    -0.02     167.33    -0.03
    18   1.0516   2590.32     0.01     183.45    -0.01
    19   1.0706   2198.76     0.02     191.24     0.04
    20   1.0708   2195.60     0.09     191.31     0.03
    21   1.1228   1325.19    -0.10     216.74    -0.08
    22   1.1391   1127.03    -0.07     225.89    -0.01
    23   1.2155    770.26    -0.09     272.22    -0.06
    24   1.2319    824.39    -0.10     282.39    -0.11
    25   1.8077  11142.45     0.00     339.81    -0.02
    26   1.8599  10533.10     0.10     329.83    -0.14
    27   1.8977   9869.18    -0.03     326.09    -0.00
    28   1.8978   9866.02     0.01     326.12     0.01
    29   1.8979   9864.74     0.02     326.13     0.02
    30   1.9445   8862.23    -0.04     326.29    -0.00
    31   1.9445   8861.46    -0.06     326.21    -0.08
    32   1.9637   8410.36    -0.07     328.17     0.04
    33   1.9637   8409.50    -0.16     328.11    -0.02
    34   2.1139   5185.72     0.14     377.71    -0.03
    35   2.1139   5185.23    -0.02     377.76     0.01
    36   2.1165   5146.39    -0.06     379.08    -0.00
    37   2.1166   5146.05     0.03     379.13     0.02
    38   2.1245   5034.88     0.04     383.34     0.14
    39   2.1245   5034.40    -0.05     383.28     0.06
    40   2.1275   4994.33     0.03     384.85     0.02
    41   2.1275   4993.86    -0.06     384.85     0.00
    42   2.1929   4472.89    -0.06     422.26     0.01
    43   2.1930   4472.86     0.03     422.24    -0.04
    44   2.8290  14657.56    -0.03     500.40    -0.03
    45   2.8482  14427.39     0.01     497.35     0.08
    46   3.0803   9495.93     0.08     527.55    -0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VS166    quality flag:3

Type:         7:4EEE    7:4EEE    7:4EEE

axisobj        44.018    44.030    44.005
ecceobj         0.129     0.130     0.128
incobj          2.732     2.732     2.732
qmin           37.236    37.213    37.271
qmax           50.733    50.721    50.660
amean          43.727    43.727    43.726
amin           43.274    43.292    43.282
amax           44.212    44.205    44.228
emean           0.135     0.135     0.134
emin            0.122     0.122     0.121
emax            0.148     0.148     0.146
imean           1.109     1.105     1.084
imin            0.115     0.117     0.040
imax            1.895     1.895     1.815
excite_mean     0.137     0.137     0.136
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.076     3.076     3.076

libcent 0       180.7     180.3     180.8
libamp  0       122.2     119.9     126.7
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       124.1     115.3     193.3
kozaiamp        178.9     179.9      95.2