Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VR202

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VR202   
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:46 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     31 observations of     31
# Arc:   1.20y
# First observation: 2015/08/20
#  Last observation: 2016/11/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000229   0.033162  -0.000008  -0.001894   0.029911   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     8.05 DOF:     56 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.24    0.25
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.725106E-05  3.233858E-02 -1.171461E-06 -1.845728E-03  2.954815E-02 -5.266644E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  3.2587E-13  5.3325E-13  2.8383E-14 -8.7953E-14  5.6038E-13  2.5426E-11
  5.3325E-13  7.4213E-12  2.4499E-13 -9.0967E-13  4.2177E-12  2.5989E-10
  2.8383E-14  2.4499E-13  1.3391E-13 -1.6088E-13  1.5054E-13  8.8942E-12
 -8.7953E-14 -9.0967E-13 -1.6088E-13  3.2578E-13 -5.3743E-13 -3.2834E-11
  5.6038E-13  4.2177E-12  1.5054E-13 -5.3743E-13  2.6805E-12  1.5391E-10
  2.5426E-11  2.5989E-10  8.8942E-12 -3.2834E-11  1.5391E-10  9.3837E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.764624   53.488753    1.012526   -0.002992   -0.064703  2457255.064109
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457250.5000  =  2015/08/16
Mean Anomaly:          305.89832 +/-     1.384
Argument of Peri:      279.06086 +/-     1.716
Long of Asc Node:      192.43296 +/-     0.007
Inclination:             4.34548 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.05739816 +/-    0.0026
Semi-Major Axis:     35.01994808 +/-    0.0063
Time of Perihelion: 2468626.2466 +/-     291.0
Perihelion:          33.00986749 +/-    0.0898
Aphelion:            37.03002866 +/-    0.0899
Period (y)              207.2438 +/-      0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           20.96086794 +/-    0.0011
Ecliptic Y           26.61882500 +/-    0.0015
Ecliptic Z           -1.63237193 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00244423 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00173063 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00016841 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   33.92026632 +/-    0.0014
Geocenter to KBO     33.84306742 +/-    0.0019
# Hcoef:  9.10

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VR202. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VR202) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  20.56332  03 27 16.771  +15 58 01.35  24.8w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 09  07.60859  03 27 12.469  +15 55 54.67  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 09  12.45964  03 27 04.912  +15 54 58.30  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  07.50935  03 25 46.483  +15 47 58.02  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  07.56783  03 25 46.221  +15 47 56.93  24.8w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  09.54866  03 25 37.532  +15 47 15.86  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.32308  03 23 09.611  +15 36 35.05  23.9r 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.38643  03 23 09.249  +15 36 33.32  24.2r 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.45719  03 23 08.817  +15 36 32.06  24.5r 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  07.47849  03 23 02.757  +15 36 07.12  24.5w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  17.45967  03 22 02.854  +15 32 07.99  24.5w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  17.54796  03 22 02.302  +15 32 05.91  24.4w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  06.32589  03 20 12.788  +15 25 11.15  24.8w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  06.45961  03 20 12.047  +15 25 08.43  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  31.37031  03 18 15.345  +15 18 31.36  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 01  07.39971  03 17 51.999  +15 17 23.72  24.7w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 02  05.29926  03 17 14.152  +15 16 51.31  24.9w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 02  11.25262  03 17 18.864  +15 17 35.09  24.7w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 09  07.60834  03 34 51.127  +16 16 40.42  25.0w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 09  27.53529  03 34 05.904  +16 12 06.31  24.8w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.52743  03 33 27.958  +16 09 02.87        15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.53507  03 33 27.942  +16 09 02.44        15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.62286  03 33 27.566  +16 09 00.71  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  09.52781  03 33 19.322  +16 08 22.92  24.2w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  09.59992  03 33 18.994  +16 08 21.40  24.8w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  10.55675  03 33 14.732  +16 08 02.07  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  10.60523  03 33 14.516  +16 08 01.06  24.8w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  28.47637  03 31 43.236  +16 01 30.75  24.5w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  29.53828  03 31 37.223  +16 01 06.43  24.6w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  29.55586  03 31 37.119  +16 01 05.89  24.5w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 11  02.59127  03 31 13.906  +15 59 32.45  24.7w 15VR202   568  C~4nAh      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.04
     2   0.0494    -91.33     0.04    -107.50    -0.08
     3   0.0627   -210.86     0.07    -135.29     0.01
     4   0.1313  -1411.31    -0.04    -262.84     0.04
     5   0.1314  -1415.24    -0.07    -262.96     0.16
     6   0.1369  -1546.93     0.01    -271.64     0.03
     7   0.2129  -3775.70    -0.15    -359.28     0.03
     8   0.2131  -3781.20     0.06    -359.65    -0.24
     9   0.2133  -3787.56     0.10    -359.30     0.21
    10   0.2161  -3878.60     0.05    -361.47    -0.04
    11   0.2434  -4776.89     0.01    -375.15    -0.01
    12   0.2436  -4785.14    -0.16    -375.15     0.06
    13   0.2950  -6422.93    -0.16    -375.56    -0.07
    14   0.2954  -6433.99    -0.02    -375.47    -0.13
    15   0.3636  -8169.58     0.11    -328.38    -0.07
    16   0.3829  -8513.97     0.15    -307.05    -0.01
    17   0.4620  -9052.47    -0.05    -197.42     0.01
    18   0.4783  -8975.17     0.04    -172.65     0.06
    19   1.0515   6625.90    -0.02    -496.98     0.04
    20   1.1060   5927.48     0.06    -608.44     0.02
    21   1.1334   5352.42    -0.16    -656.17     0.25
    22   1.1334   5352.09     0.01    -656.54    -0.08
    23   1.1336   5346.41     0.10    -656.92    -0.09
    24   1.1388   5221.96     0.08    -665.22     0.00
    25   1.1390   5217.00     0.04    -665.57    -0.05
    26   1.1417   5152.71    -0.03    -669.65    -0.02
    27   1.1418   5149.44     0.06    -669.89    -0.06
    28   1.1907   3777.93     0.10    -732.88    -0.06
    29   1.1936   3687.90    -0.02    -735.58     0.09
    30   1.1937   3686.32    -0.09    -735.74    -0.03
    31   1.2047   3338.86    -0.13    -745.64     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VR202    quality flag:2

Type:           5:4E  SCATNEAR      5:4E

axisobj        35.310    35.336    35.288
ecceobj         0.058     0.054     0.062
incobj          4.326     4.326     4.326
qmin           32.536    32.107    32.291
qmax           37.948    38.346    38.102
amean          34.950    34.971    34.950
amin           34.537    34.487    34.542
amax           35.380    35.423    35.371
emean           0.043     0.037     0.052
emin            0.014     0.001     0.024
emax            0.073     0.085     0.077
imean           3.811     4.267     3.725
imin            2.738     2.367     2.720
imax            4.824     6.443     4.677
excite_mean     0.080     0.085     0.084
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.009     3.009     3.009

libcent 0       180.9    -180.0     180.6
libamp  0       140.5    -180.0     124.5
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       181.0     180.5     180.0
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     180.0