Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VR165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VR165   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:36 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     29 observations of     29
# Arc:   2.19y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/01/26
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000003   0.027100   0.000011   0.005947   0.026715   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.22 DOF:     52 RMS:  0.07
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.21    0.22
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.686746E-05  2.727480E-02  4.126864E-06  5.997445E-03  2.694730E-02  7.448511E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.7380E-13 -3.6547E-13  1.8141E-14 -5.4093E-14 -1.6326E-13 -4.1172E-12
 -3.6547E-13  8.3011E-13 -5.3675E-14  1.6125E-13  3.9608E-13  1.2247E-11
  1.8141E-14 -5.3675E-14  1.9033E-13 -1.3344E-13 -2.9330E-14 -9.1185E-13
 -5.4093E-14  1.6125E-13 -1.3344E-13  1.4521E-13  8.5669E-14  2.7418E-12
 -1.6326E-13  3.9608E-13 -2.9330E-14  8.5669E-14  3.9274E-13  6.5599E-12
 -4.1172E-12  1.2247E-11 -9.1185E-13  2.7418E-12  6.5599E-12  2.0818E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.932897   48.115965   -0.109250   -0.050173   -0.982145  2456978.772168
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:           35.19862 +/-     0.459
Argument of Peri:      308.50711 +/-     0.517
Long of Asc Node:       61.05379 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            12.72468 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.04591597 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     39.54460513 +/-    0.0029
Time of Perihelion: 2448089.6935 +/-     115.7
Perihelion:          37.72887605 +/-    0.0138
Aphelion:            41.36033421 +/-    0.0139
Period (y)              248.6790 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           25.31486610 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y           28.39832302 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z           -1.89861601 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00199610 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00192459 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00060477 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.09083799 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     37.10946518 +/-    0.0009
# Hcoef:  8.65

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VR165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VR165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.27139  03 05 59.147  +14 24 26.01  24.3r 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  17.38009  03 05 58.570  +14 24 24.32  24.4r 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  17.49387  03 05 57.932  +14 24 22.04  24.3r 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  19.28114  03 05 48.309  +14 23 49.85  24.2r 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2014 11  23.38468  03 05 26.391  +14 22 37.60  24.1r 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 08  11.60150  03 16 48.752  +15 28 04.23  24.7w 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 09  12.50491  03 16 35.229  +15 26 48.09  24.8w 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  07.42821  03 15 16.904  +15 21 46.45  24.4w 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  08.44001  03 15 12.693  +15 21 30.85  25.0w 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  08.49908  03 15 12.433  +15 21 29.82  24.4w 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.36426  03 12 44.402  +15 12 44.03  24.4r 15VR165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.40638  03 12 44.154  +15 12 43.26  24.5r 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  07.44859  03 12 43.929  +15 12 42.44  24.5r 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  10.53471  03 12 27.090  +15 11 45.50  24.7w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  17.38127  03 11 49.675  +15 09 41.10  24.4w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 11  17.42797  03 11 49.410  +15 09 40.20  24.7w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 12  06.39016  03 10 10.016  +15 04 29.53  24.5w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2015 12  13.38310  03 09 36.915  +15 02 55.07  24.6w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 01  01.37764  03 08 23.492  +14 59 58.61  24.6w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 01  07.32440  03 08 06.611  +14 59 31.66  24.4w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 09  07.56206  03 22 30.160  +16 10 42.78  24.9w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 10  10.43747  03 20 51.606  +16 04 49.63  24.8w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 10  10.49616  03 20 51.348  +16 04 48.71  24.7w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 10  10.51394  03 20 51.271  +16 04 48.47  24.7w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 11  02.51417  03 18 58.099  +15 58 24.08  24.6w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 11  04.38927  03 18 48.005  +15 57 50.70  24.7w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2016 12  24.30148  03 14 36.522  +15 45 22.93  25.1w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2017 01  02.40371  03 14 04.840  +15 44 15.22  24.5w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      
2017 01  26.29235  03 13 18.885  +15 43 55.72  24.9w 15VR165   568  C~2lVc      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.13
     2   0.0003     -8.52     0.17       0.67     0.06
     3   0.0006    -18.06    -0.05       1.02    -0.08
     4   0.0055   -161.34    -0.06       8.42     0.05
     5   0.0167   -487.40     0.13      26.38     0.10
     6   0.7319  10102.12    -0.07    1152.15     0.03
     7   0.8193   9892.98    -0.02    1129.97    -0.08
     8   0.8875   8718.45    -0.05    1137.23     0.00
     9   0.8903   8655.48     0.07    1138.26     0.02
    10   0.8904   8651.57    -0.05    1138.26    -0.07
    11   0.9722   6443.93     0.22    1200.04    -0.02
    12   0.9723   6440.26     0.01    1200.26     0.04
    13   0.9724   6436.90     0.12    1200.33    -0.03
    14   0.9809   6186.57     0.04    1210.55     0.01
    15   0.9996   5630.92     0.02    1235.59    -0.01
    16   0.9997   5626.98    -0.08    1235.75    -0.05
    17   1.0517   4156.28    -0.05    1323.36     0.06
    18   1.0708   3668.95     0.05    1361.85     0.07
    19   1.1228   2596.96    -0.03    1480.19    -0.01
    20   1.1391   2354.21    -0.21    1520.72     0.07
    21   1.8078  15545.69     0.01    2350.18    -0.01
    22   1.8978  14074.88    -0.06    2373.01     0.01
    23   1.8979  14071.03    -0.06    2373.08    -0.03
    24   1.8980  14069.89    -0.03    2373.13    -0.01
    25   1.9610  12387.40     0.10    2423.60    -0.02
    26   1.9661  12237.62     0.01    2429.17    -0.01
    27   2.1028   8530.25    -0.06    2659.02     0.01
    28   2.1277   8070.50     0.06    2714.90     0.00
    29   2.1931   7424.75     0.06    2872.41     0.02

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VR165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.841    39.852    39.831
ecceobj         0.054     0.055     0.053
incobj         12.700    12.700    12.700
qmin           36.801    36.512    36.801
qmax           42.539    42.810    42.577
amean          39.486    39.469    39.475
amin           39.112    39.090    39.125
amax           39.841    39.877    39.839
emean           0.029     0.046     0.037
emin            0.001     0.017     0.008
emax            0.068     0.074     0.069
imean           7.365    10.159    10.492
imin            5.127     8.373     8.366
imax           11.730    11.781    12.927
excite_mean     0.132     0.182     0.186
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.033     3.013     3.012

libcent 0       181.6     181.0     179.6
libamp  0        93.3     101.1      90.5
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       180.9     179.8     180.8
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     180.0