Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VR164

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VR164   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:35 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     31 observations of     31
# Arc:   6.21y
# First observation: 2015/08/20
#  Last observation: 2021/11/05
# Chi-squared of fit:     3.08 DOF:     56 RMS:  0.06
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.31    0.14
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.968705E-05  3.969530E-02  3.825300E-07  8.006052E-04  3.212541E-02  6.865502E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.8486E-13 -1.9497E-13  3.6609E-15 -3.2268E-15  1.4195E-13 -7.0778E-13
 -1.9497E-13  2.9453E-13 -3.2868E-15  5.4001E-15 -3.7737E-14  1.1742E-12
  3.6609E-15 -3.2868E-15  6.5276E-14 -1.6984E-14  2.1843E-15 -1.3207E-14
 -3.2268E-15  5.4001E-15 -1.6984E-14  1.4352E-14 -5.0169E-16  2.2696E-14
  1.4195E-13 -3.7737E-14  2.1843E-15 -5.0169E-16  1.3572E-13 -1.1588E-13
 -7.0778E-13  1.1742E-12 -1.3207E-14  2.2696E-14 -1.1588E-13  4.9328E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.224526   54.410963    1.013446   -0.000901   -0.048332  2457255.056669
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457254.5000  =  2015/08/20
Mean Anomaly:          356.33295 +/-     0.013
Argument of Peri:      318.06511 +/-     0.020
Long of Asc Node:      100.16607 +/-     0.004
Inclination:             1.65431 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.20625963 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.26215516 +/-    0.0033
Time of Perihelion: 2458169.8217 +/-      11.6
Perihelion:          31.16395756 +/-    0.0034
Aphelion:            47.36035276 +/-    0.0045
Period (y)              246.0194 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           18.95959061 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           24.75725061 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z           -0.66518216 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00271819 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00201117 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00006702 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   31.19023311 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     31.12802071 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  8.01

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VR164. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VR164) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  20.55588  03 29 26.404  +17 41 08.76  23.2w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 09  07.60452  03 29 25.611  +17 40 30.39  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 10  07.50351  03 27 57.309  +17 34 25.11  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 10  07.56195  03 27 57.039  +17 34 24.12  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 10  09.54258  03 27 47.859  +17 33 48.63  23.2w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 11  06.31779  03 25 10.013  +17 23 57.25  22.9r 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 11  06.38117  03 25 09.605  +17 23 55.82  22.9r 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 11  06.46851  03 25 09.040  +17 23 53.70  23.0r 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 11  07.47269  03 25 02.636  +17 23 30.34  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 11  17.45383  03 23 58.230  +17 19 35.90  23.0w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 11  17.54213  03 23 57.650  +17 19 33.77  23.0w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 12  06.32006  03 21 59.658  +17 12 33.20  23.0w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 12  06.45375  03 21 58.846  +17 12 30.37  23.2w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2015 12  31.34139  03 19 53.386  +17 05 25.65        15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 01  07.37071  03 19 28.448  +17 04 08.33  22.8w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 01  08.23304  03 19 25.789  +17 04 00.28  23.4w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 02  05.31732  03 18 49.590  +17 03 01.83  23.4w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 02  05.32390  03 18 49.608  +17 03 01.82  23.3w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 02  11.27002  03 18 55.333  +17 03 41.19  23.3w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 09  25.62123  03 38 06.091  +18 13 05.62  23.5w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 10  10.56080  03 37 06.572  +18 09 24.60  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 10  10.60927  03 37 06.335  +18 09 23.77  23.2w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 10  28.47058  03 35 29.638  +18 03 39.84  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 10  28.49380  03 35 29.498  +18 03 39.35  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 10  29.53251  03 35 23.228  +18 03 17.41  23.1w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2016 11  02.58549  03 34 58.305  +18 01 50.53  23.3w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2017 09  15.62735  03 47 57.408  +18 48 35.27  23.0w 15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2017 09  22.60498  03 47 42.440  +18 47 37.17        15VR164   568  C~2lVY      
2021 11  05.400750 04 23 00.495  +20 36 54.82  23.2G 15VR164   G37  C~5Baf      
2021 11  05.442220 04 23 00.240  +20 36 54.24        15VR164   G37  C~5Baf      
2021 11  05.483900 04 22 59.990  +20 36 53.64        15VR164   G37  C~5Baf      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.01
     2   0.0494      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.01
     3   0.1313      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.01
     4   0.1314      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.03
     5   0.1369      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
     6   0.2129      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.02
     7   0.2131      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.01
     8   0.2133      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.08
     9   0.2161      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.01
    10   0.2434      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
    11   0.2436      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.05
    12   0.2950      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.01
    13   0.2954      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.03
    14   0.3635      0.00    -0.31       0.00    -0.00
    15   0.3828      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.05
    16   0.3852      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.05
    17   0.4620      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.09
    18   0.4621      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.04
    19   0.4783      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.03
    20   1.1008      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.00
    21   1.1417      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.01
    22   1.1418      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.02
    23   1.1907      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.01
    24   1.1908      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.01
    25   1.1936      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.01
    26   1.2047      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.02
    27   2.0727      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.02
    28   2.0919      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.02
    29   6.2118      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.01
    30   6.2119      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.00
    31   6.2120      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VR164    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.676    39.676    39.676
ecceobj         0.213     0.213     0.213
incobj          1.655     1.655     1.655
qmin           30.726    30.723    30.723
qmax           48.844    48.864    48.822
amean          39.456    39.456    39.456
amin           39.014    39.010    39.007
amax           39.985    39.994    39.975
emean           0.205     0.205     0.205
emin            0.189     0.189     0.189
emax            0.222     0.222     0.221
imean           0.291     0.291     0.291
imin            0.107     0.107     0.107
imax            0.457     0.458     0.457
excite_mean     0.205     0.205     0.205
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.004     3.004     3.004

libcent 0       179.3     179.5     179.6
libamp  0        86.4      86.6      86.3
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       178.5     178.6     178.5
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0