Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VP202

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VP202   
# Created Sat Nov 27 02:13:52 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     27 observations of     27
# Arc:   2.32y
# First observation: 2015/08/20
#  Last observation: 2017/12/13
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000119   0.028447  -0.000009   0.000318   0.025476   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     8.17 DOF:     48 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.28    0.22
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.750157E-05  2.813512E-02  2.347171E-07  3.111031E-04  2.529724E-02  3.844447E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.0239E-13 -9.6977E-14  3.2760E-15  2.0602E-17  1.0739E-13 -1.1987E-13
 -9.6977E-14  7.2762E-13  5.7644E-15 -1.7197E-15  2.6699E-13  1.4570E-11
  3.2760E-15  5.7644E-15  1.0863E-13 -8.1655E-14  6.7079E-15  1.4733E-13
  2.0602E-17 -1.7197E-15 -8.1655E-14  1.2017E-13 -7.8368E-16 -4.1308E-14
  1.0739E-13  2.6699E-13  6.7079E-15 -7.8368E-16  2.5659E-13  6.7062E-12
 -1.1987E-13  1.4570E-11  1.4733E-13 -4.1308E-14  6.7062E-12  3.5011E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.801427   53.362011    1.012381   -0.003143   -0.066938  2457255.064109
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457250.5000  =  2015/08/16
Mean Anomaly:           15.74232 +/-     0.071
Argument of Peri:      252.45228 +/-     0.143
Long of Asc Node:      130.66145 +/-     0.014
Inclination:             2.85049 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.28190302 +/-    0.0005
Semi-Major Axis:     53.65831414 +/-    0.0173
Time of Perihelion: 2450972.5155 +/-      28.1
Perihelion:          38.53187333 +/-    0.0273
Aphelion:            68.78475495 +/-    0.0329
Period (y)              393.0644 +/-      0.19
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           24.40986845 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           31.13135802 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z           -1.93198335 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00219638 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00214554 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00001335 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   39.60726814 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     39.53000393 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  8.80

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VP202. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VP202) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  20.56332  03 26 48.414  +15 54 00.61  24.8w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 09  07.60859  03 26 44.497  +15 52 30.47  25.1w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 09  12.45964  03 26 37.982  +15 51 47.29  25.3w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  07.50935  03 25 30.854  +15 46 14.75        15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  07.56783  03 25 30.636  +15 46 13.79  25.1w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  09.54866  03 25 23.201  +15 45 40.96  25.1w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.32308  03 23 17.114  +15 37 05.81  24.5r 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.38643  03 23 16.803  +15 37 04.62  24.6r 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.45719  03 23 16.445  +15 37 03.53  25.0r 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  07.47849  03 23 11.267  +15 36 43.60  24.8w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  17.54796  03 22 19.809  +15 33 29.50  24.6w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  06.32589  03 20 46.483  +15 27 58.34  24.8w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  06.45961  03 20 45.852  +15 27 56.37  24.9w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 01  07.37652  03 18 46.191  +15 21 55.96  24.5w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 01  08.23883  03 18 44.037  +15 21 51.08  25.1w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 02  05.32968  03 18 13.285  +15 21 58.17  25.3w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 02  11.27580  03 18 17.179  +15 22 41.35  25.4w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 09  07.60834  03 33 14.247  +16 17 01.64  25.0w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 09  27.53529  03 32 35.024  +16 13 29.78  25.8w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.52743  03 32 02.506  +16 11 03.92        15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.53507  03 32 02.462  +16 11 04.10  25.3w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.62286  03 32 02.128  +16 11 02.70  24.6w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  09.52781  03 31 55.091  +16 10 32.44  24.8w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 12  24.35153  03 26 00.984  +15 49 30.37  24.9w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2017 09  15.62132  03 39 33.485  +16 39 39.23  25.1w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2017 09  22.59895  03 39 19.815  +16 38 27.68  25.2w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      
2017 12  13.35764  03 33 20.898  +16 16 37.57  25.1w 15VP202   568  C~4nAh      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.01
     2   0.0494    -77.01    -0.04     -73.40    -0.06
     3   0.0627   -178.77    -0.01     -92.03     0.06
     4   0.1313  -1199.75     0.01    -174.27    -0.00
     5   0.1314  -1203.04     0.05    -174.42    -0.01
     6   0.1369  -1315.16    -0.10    -179.56    -0.01
     7   0.2129  -3207.19    -0.21    -223.82    -0.07
     8   0.2131  -3211.84    -0.02    -223.85    -0.09
     9   0.2133  -3217.12     0.13    -223.60     0.16
    10   0.2161  -3294.55    -0.11    -224.13     0.15
    11   0.2436  -4063.21     0.07    -225.04    -0.17
    12   0.2950  -5452.75     0.04    -204.41     0.02
    13   0.2954  -5462.08     0.22    -204.00     0.14
    14   0.3828  -7228.82     0.04    -111.52    -0.06
    15   0.3851  -7260.22    -0.04    -108.26    -0.07
    16   0.4621  -7688.90     0.08      12.67    -0.00
    17   0.4783  -7623.30    -0.16      39.97     0.07
    18   1.0515   5731.09    -0.08     -12.01     0.02
    19   1.1060   5131.53     0.18     -82.34     0.10
    20   1.1334   4641.54     0.14    -111.34    -0.28
    21   1.1334   4640.97    -0.01    -111.01     0.07
    22   1.1336   4635.96    -0.11    -111.22     0.08
    23   1.1388   4530.23     0.02    -116.18    -0.06
    24   1.3464   -729.93    -0.07     -92.62     0.02
    25   2.0727  11362.44    -0.07      22.82    -0.09
    26   2.0918  11154.13     0.04      -1.28     0.01
    27   2.3157   5818.39    -0.01     -58.30     0.09

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VP202    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        54.444    54.507    54.382
ecceobj         0.293     0.294     0.291
incobj          2.850     2.850     2.850
qmin           37.751    37.735    37.791
qmax           70.611    70.738    70.411
amean          53.789    53.841    53.736
amin           53.230    53.286    53.204
amax           54.473    54.526    54.394
emean           0.285     0.286     0.284
emin            0.274     0.276     0.273
emax            0.297     0.298     0.295
imean           1.797     1.815     1.791
imin            1.426     1.422     1.428
imax            2.187     2.212     2.154
excite_mean     0.287     0.288     0.285
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.121     3.120     3.121

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       167.5     174.2     165.2
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9