Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VO202

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VO202   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:44 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     31 observations of     32
# Arc:   2.27y
# First observation: 2015/09/07
#  Last observation: 2017/12/13
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000119   0.021634  -0.000007   0.000423   0.023912   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    17.10 DOF:     56 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.66    0.24
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.415310E-05  2.157771E-02 -3.679063E-07  4.198406E-04  2.395090E-02  5.735563E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.1188E-13 -1.1570E-13  2.6791E-15 -1.8837E-16  1.2566E-13 -2.0514E-13
 -1.1570E-13  5.1594E-13  4.0649E-16  4.7966E-15  1.5735E-13  1.4156E-11
  2.6791E-15  4.0649E-16  1.0385E-13 -8.2222E-14  3.7415E-15  3.9962E-14
 -1.8837E-16  4.7966E-15 -8.2222E-14  1.1899E-13  2.1862E-15  1.7306E-13
  1.2566E-13  1.5735E-13  3.7415E-15  2.1862E-15  2.4568E-13  6.9146E-12
 -2.0514E-13  1.4156E-11  3.9962E-14  1.7306E-13  6.9146E-12  5.1402E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -3.179753   52.603245    0.937757   -0.020816   -0.377368  2457273.125689
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457270.5000  =  2015/09/05
Mean Anomaly:           94.52342 +/-     0.177
Argument of Peri:      167.16398 +/-     0.122
Long of Asc Node:      123.29231 +/-     0.015
Inclination:             3.31318 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.24442428 +/-    0.0008
Semi-Major Axis:     39.19821272 +/-    0.0177
Time of Perihelion: 2433734.3875 +/-      41.0
Perihelion:          29.61721784 +/-    0.0326
Aphelion:            48.77920760 +/-    0.0370
Period (y)              245.4187 +/-      0.17
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           26.28878473 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           32.84929204 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Z           -2.31594095 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00156224 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00201379 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00001160 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   42.13715430 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     41.75209097 +/-    0.0009
# Hcoef:  8.54

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VO202. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VO202) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 09  07.62490  03 24 08.958  +15 20 43.09  24.9w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 09  12.48855  03 24 01.613  +15 19 55.29  24.9w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  07.53269  03 22 52.670  +15 14 08.83  24.8w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  07.59208  03 22 52.442  +15 14 07.89  24.8w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 10  09.57195  03 22 45.024  +15 13 34.41  24.8w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.34408  03 20 41.025  +15 04 59.34  24.4r 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.41470  03 20 40.676  +15 04 57.78  25.2r 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  06.48426  03 20 40.317  +15 04 56.79  24.8r 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  07.50182  03 20 35.311  +15 04 37.28  25.2w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  17.48361  03 19 45.645  +15 01 28.26  24.8w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 11  17.57138  03 19 45.188  +15 01 26.50  25.5w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  06.34926  03 18 14.585  +14 56 03.14  25.5w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  06.48675  03 18 13.958  +14 56 00.97  24.9w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2015 12  31.37031  03 16 36.980  +14 51 01.53  24.9w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 01  07.39971  03 16 17.257  +14 50 13.71  25.1w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 02  05.29926  03 15 42.737  +14 50 16.48  24.5w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 02  11.25262  03 15 45.626  +14 50 58.18  25.2w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 09  07.58521  03 29 02.885  +15 40 14.88  25.1w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 09  27.51883  03 28 20.683  +15 36 25.59  25.2w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 09  29.49637  03 28 14.737  +15 35 57.08  24.3w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  05.49953  03 27 54.899  +15 34 26.27  25.2w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.50403  03 27 47.744  +15 33 54.78  25.3w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  07.59973  03 27 47.353  +15 33 52.84  25.0w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  09.50422  03 27 40.290  +15 33 22.11  25.2w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  09.57681  03 27 40.026  +15 33 20.04        15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  10.54805  03 27 36.330  +15 33 04.65        15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 10  10.59680  03 27 36.144  +15 33 03.81  25.1w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 11  02.49102  03 25 55.334  +15 26 13.60  24.8w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2016 11  04.46713  03 25 45.750  +15 25 36.71  24.9w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2017 09  16.59057  03 33 41.773  +15 57 52.94  25.1w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2017 09  23.53642  03 33 26.365  +15 56 32.90  25.3w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      
2017 12  13.36708  03 27 36.294  +15 34 35.65  24.9w 15VO202   568  C~4nAh      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.13
     2   0.0133   -114.84    -0.04     -19.65     0.01
     3   0.0819  -1167.47     0.07    -104.31     0.02
     4   0.0820  -1170.90     0.02    -104.39     0.09
     5   0.0875  -1283.24    -0.14    -109.74    -0.02
     6   0.1635  -3150.68     0.01    -153.43    -0.11
     7   0.1637  -3155.97     0.02    -153.66    -0.33
     8   0.1639  -3161.25    -0.05    -153.29     0.05
     9   0.1667  -3236.35     0.10    -153.72     0.04
    10   0.1940  -3980.43     0.10    -153.10     0.16
    11   0.1942  -3987.28    -0.12    -153.11     0.11
    12   0.2457  -5339.87    -0.06    -129.33     0.13
    13   0.2460  -5349.22     0.09    -129.09     0.06
    14   0.3142  -6785.94    -0.01     -55.80    -0.02
    15   0.3334  -7074.87    -0.02     -27.91     0.15
    16   0.4125  -7558.15     0.07     104.72    -0.22
    17   0.4288  -7506.80    -0.05     134.13     0.05
    18   1.0019   4406.91     0.08      82.71     0.08
    19   1.0565   3759.44    -0.01       9.99     0.07
    20   1.0619   3669.13     0.05       3.47    -0.21
    21   1.0784   3368.88     0.03     -14.01    -0.11
    22   1.0839   3260.90 (   0.45)    -19.06 (   0.23)
    23   1.0841   3254.94    -0.12     -19.55    -0.03
    24   1.0893   3148.43    -0.06     -24.18     0.24
    25   1.0895   3144.22    -0.05     -25.24    -0.66
    26   1.0922   3088.65     0.10     -26.99    -0.00
    27   1.0923   3085.84     0.17     -27.14    -0.04
    28   1.1550   1572.25    -0.12     -63.81     0.04
    29   1.1604   1428.85    -0.09     -65.09     0.02
    30   2.0259   8572.51    -0.09     134.04     0.09
    31   2.0449   8337.18     0.05     109.59     0.14
    32   2.2662   3110.60     0.05      61.34     0.08

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VO202    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.586    39.638    39.535
ecceobj         0.246     0.247     0.244
incobj          3.314     3.314     3.314
qmin           29.021    28.931    29.021
qmax           50.572    50.393    50.682
amean          39.455    39.455    39.456
amin           39.020    39.050    38.935
amax           39.986    39.938    40.069
emean           0.247     0.238     0.250
emin            0.230     0.210     0.235
emax            0.266     0.264     0.266
imean           3.078     4.684     1.910
imin            1.746     1.769     1.415
imax            5.007     7.497     2.541
excite_mean     0.253     0.254     0.252
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.978     2.978     2.979

libcent 0       180.0     180.1     180.0
libamp  0        82.8      57.7     103.8
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       162.0     144.6     200.0
kozaiamp         44.1     180.0     180.0