Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VN165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VN165   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:36 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     30 observations of     30
# Arc:   2.12y
# First observation: 2015/08/11
#  Last observation: 2017/09/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000182   0.042846  -0.000013   0.002045   0.033654   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    10.18 DOF:     54 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.41    0.29
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.954309E-05  4.173046E-02  9.059921E-07  1.994345E-03  3.299380E-02  8.551660E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.4747E-13 -6.4113E-14  5.2365E-15  1.8675E-15  1.4949E-13  8.4804E-13
 -6.4113E-14  5.0855E-13  1.3136E-15  1.7258E-14  2.0768E-13  6.5964E-12
  5.2365E-15  1.3136E-15  1.1398E-13 -9.3802E-14  5.9245E-15  3.5767E-14
  1.8675E-15  1.7258E-14 -9.3802E-14  1.3187E-13  1.0009E-14  3.0285E-13
  1.4949E-13  2.0768E-13  5.9245E-15  1.0009E-14  2.4916E-13  3.9615E-12
  8.4804E-13  6.5964E-12  3.5767E-14  3.0285E-13  3.9615E-12  1.1609E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.937287   51.718899    1.014336    0.002999    0.056020  2457246.102289
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457240.5000  =  2015/08/06
Mean Anomaly:          357.20534 +/-     0.048
Argument of Peri:      316.35575 +/-     0.080
Long of Asc Node:       97.91108 +/-     0.005
Inclination:             3.94824 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.22853136 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     39.21020913 +/-    0.0027
Time of Perihelion: 2457936.6830 +/-      12.1
Perihelion:          30.24944667 +/-    0.0028
Aphelion:            48.17097160 +/-    0.0038
Period (y)              245.5313 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           19.50969104 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           23.08797784 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -1.55304863 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00267115 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00220123 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00016170 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   30.26705677 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     30.30872563 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef: 10.02

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VN165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VN165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  11.60150  03 20 21.059  +15 21 23.12  25.2w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 09  06.61481  03 20 29.847  +15 19 48.89  25.3w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 09  12.50491  03 20 19.742  +15 18 43.99  25.3w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 10  07.42821  03 18 52.507  +15 11 37.72  25.1w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.34843  03 15 52.469  +14 59 21.28  24.6r 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.39058  03 15 52.194  +14 59 20.27  24.8r 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  07.43274  03 15 51.897  +14 59 19.31  24.8r 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  10.51713  03 15 31.808  +14 58 02.76  24.9w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  10.54648  03 15 31.593  +14 58 02.01  25.0w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  17.36382  03 14 46.957  +14 55 15.10  25.0w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 11  17.41043  03 14 46.649  +14 55 14.03  24.9w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 12  06.37266  03 12 47.442  +14 48 14.44  24.8w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 12  13.30706  03 12 08.197  +14 46 06.98  24.7w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2015 12  13.36559  03 12 07.883  +14 46 05.83  24.9w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 01  01.36029  03 10 41.111  +14 42 00.36  24.8w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 01  07.30705  03 10 21.637  +14 41 19.80  25.1w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 02  04.34036  03 09 50.283  +14 42 31.36  25.1w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 02  11.22942  03 09 58.801  +14 43 56.42  25.2w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 09  27.51883  03 29 15.418  +15 58 18.28  25.1w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 09  29.49637  03 29 07.974  +15 57 44.73  25.4w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 10  07.59973  03 28 33.147  +15 55 14.47  25.4w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 10  09.50422  03 28 24.066  +15 54 36.58  25.1w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 10  09.57681  03 28 23.712  +15 54 35.18  24.9w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 11  02.49102  03 26 06.681  +15 45 40.98  25.1w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 11  04.46713  03 25 54.011  +15 44 54.17  24.9w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 12  28.44224  03 20 32.821  +15 27 32.49  25.3w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2016 12  28.45409  03 20 32.778  +15 27 32.34  25.0w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 01  27.30860  03 19 18.897  +15 26 02.90  25.3w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 09  15.62132  03 39 34.734  +16 42 49.62  25.3w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      
2017 09  22.59895  03 39 17.960  +16 41 26.74  24.7w 15VN165   568  C~2lVb      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.01
     2   0.0712     98.83    -0.01    -123.58    -0.41
     3   0.0873    -59.09    -0.02    -148.98     0.06
     4   0.1556  -1388.63     0.02    -237.33    -0.10
     5   0.2402  -4098.34    -0.09    -273.77    -0.15
     6   0.2404  -4102.45    -0.04    -273.70    -0.13
     7   0.2405  -4106.86    -0.26    -273.51     0.02
     8   0.2489  -4407.97     0.29    -271.53     0.06
     9   0.2490  -4411.18     0.00    -271.44     0.12
    10   0.2677  -5079.57    -0.03    -263.54     0.07
    11   0.2678  -5084.16     0.01    -263.41     0.11
    12   0.3197  -6863.47    -0.13    -214.12     0.11
    13   0.3387  -7446.80    -0.06    -186.67     0.14
    14   0.3388  -7451.50     0.04    -186.57    -0.05
    15   0.3909  -8732.26     0.09     -89.19    -0.01
    16   0.4071  -9015.94     0.02     -53.01     0.16
    17   0.4839  -9436.13    -0.02     137.50     0.00
    18   0.5027  -9294.04     0.11     186.53     0.02
    19   1.1305   8030.52    -0.06     211.25    -0.04
    20   1.1359   7918.04     0.17     205.07    -0.06
    21   1.1581   7393.48    -0.11     182.91    -0.05
    22   1.1633   7257.02    -0.07     178.44    -0.01
    23   1.1635   7251.72     0.06     178.34     0.03
    24   1.2290   5201.68     0.02     150.61     0.02
    25   1.2344   5012.76     0.04     150.84     0.00
    26   1.3822    258.80    -0.03     313.67     0.10
    27   1.3822    258.16     0.08     313.68     0.05
    28   1.4639   -797.33    -0.10     500.71     0.02
    29   2.0972  17361.85    -0.05     673.47    -0.05
    30   2.1164  17106.40     0.05     648.96    -0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VN165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.636    39.649    39.623
ecceobj         0.236     0.236     0.236
incobj          3.949     3.949     3.949
qmin           29.928    29.843    29.954
qmax           49.734    49.852    49.757
amean          39.456    39.456    39.456
amin           38.944    38.963    38.904
amax           40.034    40.061    40.066
emean           0.226     0.227     0.224
emin            0.210     0.212     0.208
emax            0.242     0.244     0.242
imean           2.433     2.194     2.848
imin            1.700     1.599     1.959
imax            3.023     2.807     3.591
excite_mean     0.230     0.230     0.230
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.991     2.991     2.991

libcent 0       180.1     180.4     180.3
libamp  0       105.5     100.4     122.4
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       249.3     234.9     289.4
kozaiamp         96.0     104.2      55.6