Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VN164

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VN164   
# Created Thu Apr 18 01:10:37 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   38 observations of   38
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000275   0.024928  -0.000044   0.003984   0.025886   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     6.25 DOF:   70 RMS:  0.07
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.14    0.23
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.540959E-05  2.458428E-02  3.074849E-06  3.932117E-03  2.582107E-02 -6.281323E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.4385E-13 -2.7169E-13  1.6332E-14 -3.1475E-14 -1.2093E-13 -2.6075E-12
 -2.7169E-13  4.2570E-13 -3.0493E-14  5.9043E-14  2.0659E-13  4.8877E-12
  1.6332E-14 -3.0493E-14  1.3926E-13 -7.8198E-14 -1.7272E-14 -4.0158E-13
 -3.1475E-14  5.9043E-14 -7.8198E-14  6.4125E-14  3.1958E-14  7.7839E-13
 -1.2093E-13  2.0659E-13 -1.7272E-14  3.1958E-14  2.1897E-13  2.6657E-12
 -2.6075E-12  4.8877E-12 -4.0158E-13  7.7839E-13  2.6657E-12  6.4425E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.532722   46.781619   -0.132385   -0.043185   -0.979628  2456978.787348
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          282.87718 +/-     0.044
Argument of Peri:       89.84483 +/-     0.019
Long of Asc Node:       62.03662 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             9.42704 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.24351422 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     39.53217860 +/-    0.0066
Time of Perihelion: 2476419.8437 +/-       9.9
Perihelion:          29.90553101 +/-    0.0127
Aphelion:            49.15882618 +/-    0.0143
Period (y)              248.5618 +/-      0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           27.06624760 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           29.00220874 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z           -1.71128628 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00234693 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00130860 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00044605 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   39.70690585 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     38.72805737 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  8.81

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VN164. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VN164) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.28657  03 00 14.324  +14 25 17.34  24.0r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  17.39535  03 00 13.747  +14 25 15.47  24.8r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  17.50914  03 00 13.148  +14 25 13.21  24.6r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  19.30032  03 00 03.902  +14 24 39.20  24.3r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  23.40372  02 59 42.897  +14 23 22.95  24.4r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 08  12.57765  03 10 38.409  +15 22 23.59  24.3w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 09  07.53691  03 10 28.101  +15 21 08.31  25.4w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 09  12.53366  03 10 18.599  +15 20 24.96  24.8w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 10  07.47747  03 08 59.328  +15 14 53.35  25.7w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 10  08.56473  03 08 54.825  +15 14 35.42  24.3w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.29678  03 06 35.675  +15 05 38.45  24.2r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.36009  03 06 35.349  +15 05 37.10  24.3r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.43072  03 06 34.971  +15 05 35.81  25.3r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.50005  03 06 34.593  +15 05 34.38  24.8r 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  07.51946  03 06 29.218  +15 05 14.30  24.5w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  17.28542  03 05 37.593  +15 02 05.50  24.6w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  17.33469  03 05 37.330  +15 02 04.59  24.6w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 12  06.41351  03 04 01.224  +14 56 31.63  24.8w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 12  13.34802  03 03 29.918  +14 54 50.43  25.1w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 12  13.40657  03 03 29.662  +14 54 49.66  24.7w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 01  01.40134  03 02 20.348  +14 51 32.83  25.4w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 01  07.34755  03 02 04.690  +14 50 59.67  25.6w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 02  04.27768  03 01 37.452  +14 51 47.59  25.0w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 02  10.26747  03 01 42.150  +14 52 42.94  24.7w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 09  06.61716  03 15 53.930  +15 56 56.40        15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 09  26.60468  03 15 04.879  +15 53 35.14  25.0w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 10  10.41386  03 14 11.991  +15 50 09.83  24.7w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 10  10.47261  03 14 11.739  +15 50 08.84  25.0w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 10  27.50838  03 12 50.982  +15 45 06.34  25.1w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 11  03.53341  03 12 14.489  +15 42 53.15  24.8w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 12  29.36323  03 07 49.976  +15 28 25.40  24.6w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  01.26044  03 07 40.960  +15 28 03.23  24.8w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  02.37026  03 07 37.688  +15 27 55.44  24.9w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  26.26424  03 06 55.936  +15 27 13.71  24.7w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 09  15.60092  03 21 09.049  +16 31 32.76  24.9w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 09  22.58685  03 20 51.123  +16 30 24.11  24.8w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 12  16.38250  03 14 10.131  +16 07 24.07  24.8w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 12  16.38715  03 14 10.103  +16 07 24.07  24.8w 15VN164   568  C~2lVX      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.14
  2   0.0003     -8.57    -0.06       0.56     0.07
  3   0.0006    -17.56    -0.06       0.84    -0.01
  4   0.0055   -156.02     0.02       6.00     0.00
  5   0.0167   -470.32     0.10      18.78    -0.06
  6   0.7345   9647.54     0.02     799.81     0.05
  7   0.8056   9483.30    -0.02     767.56     0.00
  8   0.8193   9338.95    -0.04     762.96    -0.02
  9   0.8876   8142.89    -0.10     754.65    -0.03
 10   0.8906   8075.20     0.06     755.11     0.08
 11   0.9692   5988.15    -0.06     788.83     0.21
 12   0.9694   5983.24     0.07     788.83     0.04
 13   0.9696   5977.62     0.10     789.09     0.12
 14   0.9698   5971.95    -0.01     789.22     0.09
 15   0.9726   5891.52    -0.02     791.28    -0.03
 16   0.9993   5120.10    -0.03     815.40    -0.02
 17   0.9994   5116.19    -0.02     815.58    -0.01
 18   1.0517   3685.20     0.01     880.41     0.08
 19   1.0707   3221.06    -0.03     909.09    -0.03
 20   1.0708   3217.28     0.01     909.38    -0.00
 21   1.1228   2197.21    -0.11    1000.07    -0.12
 22   1.1391   1969.93     0.23    1031.60     0.11
 23   1.2156   1604.13    -0.00    1188.01    -0.08
 24   1.2320   1685.01     0.06    1222.10    -0.12
 25   1.8051  14610.22    -0.01    1582.63    -0.03
 26   1.8599  13871.11    -0.05    1575.46    -0.04
 27   1.8977  13077.49    -0.03    1579.90    -0.03
 28   1.8978  13073.71     0.04    1579.91    -0.08
 29   1.9445  11865.19     0.06    1599.02    -0.06
 30   1.9637  11320.15     0.11    1611.70    -0.04
 31   2.1166   7398.01    -0.05    1809.98    -0.03
 32   2.1245   7266.40    -0.02    1824.24     0.08
 33   2.1275   7218.71    -0.02    1829.67    -0.03
 34   2.1930   6626.04    -0.04    1954.69    -0.06
 35   2.8291  19567.58    -0.07    2407.81     0.00
 36   2.8482  19298.42     0.14    2407.84    -0.04
 37   3.0803  13328.00    -0.01    2586.28     0.03
 38   3.0804  13327.61    -0.10    2586.39     0.12

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VN164    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.739    39.755    39.723
ecceobj         0.238     0.239     0.238
incobj          9.405     9.406     9.405
qmin           29.045    29.083    29.012
qmax           50.328    50.390    50.328
amean          39.455    39.455    39.455
amin           39.022    39.010    39.028
amax           39.964    39.972    39.954
emean           0.240     0.239     0.240
emin            0.220     0.220     0.219
emax            0.261     0.262     0.262
imean           8.236     8.335     8.154
imin            7.334     7.531     7.167
imax            8.878     8.908     8.845
excite_mean     0.279     0.280     0.279
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.963     2.962     2.963

libcent 0       179.7     179.8     180.0
libamp  0        71.8      74.8      69.7
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        90.0      90.2      89.8
kozaiamp         27.6      26.7      28.3