Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VM173

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VM173   
# Created Sat Jun  6 01:12:19 2020
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   41 observations of   41
# Arc:   4.94y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2019/10/26
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000134   0.020648   0.000003  -0.000622   0.022386   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     3.10 DOF:   76 RMS:  0.05
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.11    0.20
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.440806E-05  2.067123E-02 -4.557777E-07 -6.228837E-04  2.253919E-02  8.495919E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.1640E-13 -2.0209E-13 -3.2965E-15  4.5964E-15 -5.3367E-14 -1.5154E-12
 -2.0209E-13  2.4143E-13  4.2974E-15 -6.0276E-15  7.2708E-14  1.9878E-12
 -3.2965E-15  4.2974E-15  9.1147E-14 -3.7992E-14  6.0217E-16  3.9164E-14
  4.5964E-15 -6.0276E-15 -3.7992E-14  2.6383E-14 -2.1705E-15 -5.5756E-14
 -5.3367E-14  7.2708E-14  6.0217E-16 -2.1705E-15  1.2689E-13  7.3520E-13
 -1.5154E-12  1.9878E-12  3.9164E-14 -5.5756E-14  7.3520E-13  1.8400E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.753952   48.397963   -0.104496   -0.029970   -0.983486  2456978.777218
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          125.33532 +/-     0.169
Argument of Peri:       94.84757 +/-     0.165
Long of Asc Node:      183.71110 +/-     0.008
Inclination:             2.43355 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.05154216 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     43.96411145 +/-    0.0028
Time of Perihelion: 2419900.9907 +/-      49.8
Perihelion:          41.69810626 +/-    0.0068
Aphelion:            46.23011664 +/-    0.0069
Period (y)              291.5115 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           30.01591871 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           33.96774525 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z           -1.35799978 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00181495 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00173759 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00007868 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   45.34983194 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     44.36716517 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  6.21

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM173. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM173) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.27644  03 05 46.149  +15 37 05.67  22.5r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  17.38513  03 05 45.643  +15 37 03.62  22.7r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  17.49897  03 05 45.112  +15 37 01.48  22.5r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  19.28749  03 05 36.984  +15 36 27.89  22.5r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  23.39103  03 05 18.457  +15 35 12.03  22.7r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 08  11.61007  03 14 48.898  +16 14 18.80  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 09  06.62757  03 14 44.427  +16 12 50.26  22.7w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 09  12.51723  03 14 35.402  +16 11 59.54  22.7w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 10  07.45292  03 13 28.171  +16 06 39.42  23.0w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 10  08.45753  03 13 24.607  +16 06 23.60  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 10  08.51654  03 13 24.392  +16 06 22.58  23.0w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  07.36426  03 11 19.178  +15 57 28.61  22.6r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  07.40638  03 11 18.983  +15 57 27.78  22.8r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  07.44859  03 11 18.783  +15 57 27.00  22.6r 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  10.53471  03 11 04.582  +15 56 28.76  22.7w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  17.38127  03 10 33.053  +15 54 20.54  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  17.42797  03 10 32.835  +15 54 19.68  22.6w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 12  06.39016  03 09 09.152  +15 48 48.68  23.0w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 12  13.32462  03 08 41.520  +15 47 02.86  22.7w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 12  13.38310  03 08 41.294  +15 47 01.99  22.7w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 01  01.37764  03 07 39.477  +15 43 16.45  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 01  07.32440  03 07 25.258  +15 42 28.90  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  04.30735  03 06 58.554  +15 41 36.96  22.9w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  04.31413  03 06 58.561  +15 41 36.97  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  04.32117  03 06 58.560  +15 41 37.02  23.0w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  04.32803  03 06 58.556  +15 41 37.10  23.1w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  05.26985  03 06 58.895  +15 41 40.45  23.1w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  10.29068  03 07 02.015  +15 42 04.11  22.9w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 09  06.59240  03 19 26.637  +16 28 55.63  22.9w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 09  26.58845  03 18 45.478  +16 25 28.81  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 10  10.39070  03 18 00.492  +16 22 08.26  23.1w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 10  10.44903  03 18 00.270  +16 22 07.30  22.9w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 11  02.60285  03 16 23.792  +16 15 24.06  23.0w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 11  03.52184  03 16 19.635  +16 15 07.16  23.0w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 12  24.30148  03 12 44.732  +16 01 23.22  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 01  02.40371  03 12 18.258  +15 59 52.58  22.8w 15VM173   568  C~2nwI      
2017 01  26.29235  03 11 40.036  +15 58 07.81  22.7w 15VM173   568  C~2nwI      
2017 09  23.54857  03 23 38.851  +16 42 02.38  23.2w 15VM173   568  C~2nwI      
2019 10  26.359500 03 31 18.68   +17 04 57.2   22.5G 15VM173   705  C~3cuO      
2019 10  26.407170 03 31 18.47   +17 04 56.5   22.5G 15VM173   705  C~3cuO      
2019 10  26.470610 03 31 18.22   +17 04 55.4   22.8G 15VM173   705  C~3cuO      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
  2   0.0003     -7.59    -0.01       0.03    -0.00
  3   0.0006    -15.56    -0.04       0.08     0.02
  4   0.0055   -137.69     0.02      -0.01    -0.00
  5   0.0167   -415.90    -0.01       0.54    -0.00
  6   0.7319   8144.95    -0.04      44.49     0.05
  7   0.8032   8059.35    -0.04     -23.97     0.15
  8   0.8193   7920.37     0.01     -38.59     0.05
  9   0.8875   6900.22    -0.01     -90.89    -0.01
 10   0.8903   6846.45     0.01     -92.51     0.08
 11   0.8905   6843.18    -0.00     -92.67    -0.01
 12   0.9722   4959.45     0.08    -125.91    -0.06
 13   0.9723   4956.51     0.08    -125.96    -0.10
 14   0.9724   4953.52     0.05    -125.94    -0.07
 15   0.9809   4740.47    -0.03    -127.15    -0.01
 16   0.9996   4267.73    -0.01    -128.56    -0.02
 17   0.9997   4264.47    -0.00    -128.54    -0.01
 18   1.0516   3012.09    -0.02    -121.77     0.04
 19   1.0706   2599.43     0.02    -115.70     0.01
 20   1.0708   2596.06     0.04    -115.65    -0.02
 21   1.1228   1675.81     0.03     -90.42    -0.08
 22   1.1391   1465.30     0.04     -80.28     0.01
 23   1.2157   1080.11    -0.07     -25.13    -0.03
 24   1.2157   1080.21     0.00     -25.15    -0.06
 25   1.2157   1080.21    -0.03     -25.09    -0.02
 26   1.2157   1080.18    -0.09     -25.00     0.06
 27   1.2183   1085.80     0.01     -23.12    -0.02
 28   1.2321   1135.61    -0.02     -12.64    -0.02
 29   1.8051  12242.74    -0.02    -152.95     0.03
 30   1.8599  11615.20     0.02    -199.59    -0.01
 31   1.8976  10935.96     0.05    -225.24     0.03
 32   1.8978  10932.62    -0.02    -225.33    -0.00
 33   1.9612   9483.05    -0.06    -252.07     0.04
 34   1.9637   9420.72     0.01    -252.69     0.01
 35   2.1027   6211.87     0.03    -229.34    -0.03
 36   2.1277   5819.48     0.01    -214.97    -0.02
 37   2.1931   5259.95    -0.00    -168.68     0.03
 38   2.8508  15966.50    -0.05    -320.40    -0.02
 39   4.9393  22760.88    -0.07    -631.65    -0.02
 40   4.9394  22757.75    -0.11    -631.60     0.08
 41   4.9396  22753.96     0.20    -631.79    -0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VM173    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        44.296    44.305    44.287
ecceobj         0.052     0.052     0.051
incobj          2.424     2.424     2.424
qmin           40.936    40.941    40.941
qmax           47.220    47.218    47.210
amean          43.979    43.988    43.970
amin           43.639    43.648    43.630
amax           44.334    44.348    44.338
emean           0.050     0.050     0.050
emin            0.033     0.033     0.033
emax            0.066     0.065     0.066
imean           3.234     3.232     3.235
imin            2.551     2.551     2.551
imax            3.890     3.886     3.894
excite_mean     0.076     0.076     0.076
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.094     3.095     3.094

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       175.0     175.1     174.8
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0