Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VM169

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VM169   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:40 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     46 observations of     46
# Arc:   3.07y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/13
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000050   0.021654   0.000014  -0.011524   0.024912   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    10.86 DOF:     86 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.19    0.30
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.314172E-05  2.173986E-02 -7.798090E-06 -1.158343E-02  2.508856E-02  2.262292E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.2906E-13 -2.2906E-13 -3.8655E-14  7.9398E-14 -1.1729E-13 -2.3861E-12
 -2.2906E-13  3.3013E-13  6.9688E-14 -1.4230E-13  1.6549E-13  4.2823E-12
 -3.8655E-14  6.9688E-14  1.4997E-13 -1.0588E-13  3.8539E-14  1.0670E-12
  7.9398E-14 -1.4230E-13 -1.0588E-13  1.2177E-13 -8.0326E-14 -2.1763E-12
 -1.1729E-13  1.6549E-13  3.8539E-14 -8.0326E-14  1.8046E-13  2.4057E-12
 -2.3861E-12  4.2823E-12  1.0670E-12 -2.1763E-12  2.4057E-12  6.5510E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.190372   46.364885   -0.139778   -0.037290   -0.978841  2456978.802558
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          106.42627 +/-     0.673
Argument of Peri:       77.00440 +/-     0.671
Long of Asc Node:      222.55977 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            28.12405 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.00984282 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     40.71969936 +/-    0.0020
Time of Perihelion: 2428912.8304 +/-     177.4
Perihelion:          40.31890260 +/-    0.0127
Aphelion:            41.12049611 +/-    0.0127
Period (y)              259.8454 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           28.05674537 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           29.63353758 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z           -1.52372609 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00173762 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00161504 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00126399 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   40.83686144 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     39.85880667 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  8.17

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM169. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM169) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.30178  02 58 11.321  +14 37 56.19  23.9r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2014 11  17.41069  02 58 10.770  +14 37 53.11  24.1r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2014 11  17.52479  02 58 10.183  +14 37 49.98  24.5r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2014 11  19.31948  02 58 01.367  +14 37 00.86  24.2r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2014 11  23.42278  02 57 41.360  +14 35 10.21  24.8r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 08  11.63062  03 08 39.191  +14 55 24.38  24.2w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 08  12.57765  03 08 40.103  +14 55 17.83  24.1w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 09  07.53691  03 08 30.749  +14 50 03.44  24.2w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 09  12.53366  03 08 21.731  +14 48 34.69  24.6w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 10  07.48475  03 07 06.264  +14 39 19.55  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 10  08.48746  03 07 02.309  +14 38 54.09  24.3w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 10  08.54568  03 07 02.081  +14 38 52.83  24.8w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 10  08.55734  03 07 02.024  +14 38 52.14  24.6w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 10  08.57055  03 07 01.978  +14 38 52.02  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  06.30199  03 04 49.829  +14 25 49.73  24.1r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  06.36535  03 04 49.506  +14 25 48.15  24.4r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  06.43596  03 04 49.140  +14 25 46.10  24.1r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  06.50529  03 04 48.787  +14 25 44.08  24.2r 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  17.29127  03 03 54.829  +14 20 47.30  24.5w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  17.34053  03 03 54.581  +14 20 46.03  24.2w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 12  13.35388  03 01 54.596  +14 10 07.60  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 01  07.35336  03 00 35.507  +14 03 08.47  25.0w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 02  04.28349  03 00 12.707  +14 00 29.30  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 02  10.27327  03 00 17.929  +14 00 39.65  24.7w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 09  07.54470  03 14 06.110  +14 31 52.00  24.9w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 09  25.60090  03 13 24.344  +14 25 46.70  24.7w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 09  26.60873  03 13 21.216  +14 25 23.62  24.1w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  10.41976  03 12 31.330  +14 19 44.58  24.9w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  10.47844  03 12 31.089  +14 19 43.15  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  10.53578  03 12 30.841  +14 19 41.69  24.6w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  10.54400  03 12 30.820  +14 19 41.48  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  10.59276  03 12 30.612  +14 19 40.20  24.7w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  27.51997  03 11 14.993  +14 12 05.59  24.3w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  27.53156  03 11 14.943  +14 12 05.33  24.3w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 11  03.54499  03 10 40.672  +14 08 52.19  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 11  03.55656  03 10 40.616  +14 08 52.00  24.3w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 12  28.38005  03 06 36.804  +13 47 51.40        15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 12  29.34560  03 06 33.904  +13 47 37.25        15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 01  01.24148  03 06 25.617  +13 46 56.47        15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 01  01.30776  03 06 25.418  +13 46 55.70        15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 01  02.35263  03 06 22.613  +13 46 41.73        15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 01  26.24903  03 05 45.364  +13 43 32.06  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 09  16.62185  03 19 25.242  +14 10 36.26  24.4w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 09  23.56066  03 19 07.981  +14 08 07.97  24.3w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 12  13.38122  03 13 09.915  +13 34 19.99  24.8w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 12  13.41861  03 13 09.739  +13 34 19.50  24.6w 15VM169   568  C~2nw2      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.10
     2   0.0003     -8.54     0.05      -0.68     0.02
     3   0.0006    -17.60    -0.13      -1.27     0.10
     4   0.0055   -154.23     0.08     -12.06     0.02
     5   0.0168   -464.12    -0.04     -35.66    -0.01
     6   0.7319   9044.65    -0.06   -1526.88    -0.02
     7   0.7345   9055.60     0.30   -1536.80    -0.16
     8   0.8056   8839.07    -0.03   -1802.55    -0.06
     9   0.8193   8688.78     0.02   -1852.28     0.06
    10   0.8876   7482.03    -0.07   -2086.74     0.02
    11   0.8903   7419.77    -0.13   -2095.48     0.05
    12   0.8905   7416.23     0.05   -2095.78     0.24
    13   0.8905   7415.25    -0.19   -2096.22    -0.10
    14   0.8905   7414.57    -0.02   -2096.15     0.08
    15   0.9692   5352.47     0.05   -2319.29    -0.16
    16   0.9694   5347.52     0.06   -2319.51     0.02
    17   0.9696   5341.84    -0.07   -2320.01    -0.03
    18   0.9698   5336.35    -0.10   -2320.53    -0.11
    19   0.9993   4500.30     0.00   -2388.27    -0.03
    20   0.9994   4496.48     0.03   -2388.49     0.02
    21   1.0706   2642.63     0.05   -2515.20    -0.03
    22   1.1391   1420.51     0.09   -2594.71    -0.04
    23   1.2156   1057.29     0.04   -2654.08     0.02
    24   1.2320   1133.13    -0.11   -2665.55    -0.14
    25   1.8076  13244.51    -0.01   -4171.97    -0.05
    26   1.8571  12559.66     0.04   -4361.87     0.00
    27   1.8598  12509.51    -0.11   -4371.93     0.05
    28   1.8977  11717.46    -0.01   -4503.94    -0.10
    29   1.8978  11713.69     0.04   -4504.37    -0.03
    30   1.8980  11709.81    -0.10   -4504.81     0.03
    31   1.8980  11709.46     0.09   -4504.93    -0.02
    32   1.8981  11706.19    -0.00   -4505.35    -0.01
    33   1.9445  10521.42    -0.04   -4646.61    -0.07
    34   1.9445  10520.64     0.07   -4646.66    -0.04
    35   1.9637   9987.15    -0.03   -4697.64     0.04
    36   1.9637   9986.31     0.04   -4697.61     0.15
    37   2.1138   6221.24    -0.11   -4940.60    -0.08
    38   2.1165   6176.68     0.11   -4942.57     0.04
    39   2.1244   6049.25     0.01   -4948.52     0.02
    40   2.1246   6046.25    -0.12   -4948.46     0.19
    41   2.1274   6003.07     0.02   -4950.63     0.01
    42   2.1929   5428.50     0.04   -4983.23    -0.05
    43   2.8318  17407.08     0.04   -6640.14     0.01
    44   2.8508  17123.96     0.02   -6717.54     0.01
    45   3.0721  11528.48     0.10   -7285.85    -0.13
    46   3.0722  11525.86    -0.07   -7285.63     0.19

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VM169    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        40.986    40.992    40.979
ecceobj         0.014     0.015     0.014
incobj         28.030    28.030    28.029
qmin           39.621    39.689    39.444
qmax           41.942    41.950    42.055
amean          40.723    40.732    40.697
amin           40.412    40.431    40.372
amax           41.039    41.033    41.023
emean           0.012     0.012     0.014
emin            0.002     0.002     0.004
emax            0.022     0.022     0.026
imean          29.036    29.038    29.030
imin           28.704    28.716    28.690
imax           29.373    29.373    29.372
excite_mean     0.486     0.486     0.485
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.773     2.773     2.773

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       184.1     181.7     179.9
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     180.0