Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VM164

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VM164   
# Created Thu Dec  9 02:13:33 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     51 observations of     51
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000144   0.042023   0.000050   0.013697   0.034808   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     9.82 DOF:     96 RMS:  0.08
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.27    0.22
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.932123E-05  4.260581E-02  6.800704E-06  1.391179E-02  3.486809E-02  2.730996E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3614E-13 -2.5583E-13  3.0321E-14 -5.9564E-14 -1.0664E-13 -1.4828E-12
 -2.5583E-13  3.8999E-13 -5.6431E-14  1.1108E-13  1.7572E-13  2.7651E-12
  3.0321E-14 -5.6431E-14  1.4295E-13 -8.8196E-14 -2.7163E-14 -4.5700E-13
 -5.9564E-14  1.1108E-13 -8.8196E-14  8.2967E-14  5.2662E-14  9.0068E-13
 -1.0664E-13  1.7572E-13 -2.7163E-14  5.2662E-14  1.6597E-13  1.3118E-12
 -1.4828E-12  2.7651E-12 -4.5700E-13  9.0068E-13  1.3118E-12  2.2419E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.759820   45.752081   -0.150246   -0.046941   -0.976873  2456978.802558
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:           10.67105 +/-     0.016
Argument of Peri:      333.03443 +/-     0.028
Long of Asc Node:       54.15767 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            18.28537 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.25304058 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.29065228 +/-    0.0021
Time of Perihelion: 2454304.0276 +/-       3.9
Perihelion:          29.34852297 +/-    0.0026
Aphelion:            49.23278159 +/-    0.0034
Period (y)              246.2873 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           20.56007648 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           21.32697170 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z           -1.38072044 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00221453 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00252045 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00108087 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   29.65573900 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO     28.67951416 +/-    0.0003
# Hcoef:  9.83

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM164. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM164) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.30178  02 56 26.150  +13 54 43.34  25.0r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  17.41069  02 56 25.414  +13 54 41.39  24.5r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  17.52479  02 56 24.624  +13 54 38.70  24.6r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  19.31948  02 56 12.654  +13 54 03.75  24.4r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2014 11  23.42278  02 55 45.551  +13 52 45.64  24.5r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 09  07.53691  03 11 22.929  +15 39 40.63  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 09  12.53366  03 11 11.537  +15 39 15.26  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 10  07.47747  03 09 31.856  +15 34 33.45  25.1w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 10  08.48165  03 09 26.536  +15 34 17.70  24.6w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 10  08.53987  03 09 26.211  +15 34 16.60  24.5w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 10  08.55151  03 09 26.151  +15 34 16.72  25.0w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 10  08.56473  03 09 26.087  +15 34 16.13  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.29678  03 06 26.673  +15 25 17.22  24.4r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.36009  03 06 26.234  +15 25 15.92  24.6r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.43072  03 06 25.739  +15 25 14.45  24.0r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  06.50005  03 06 25.271  +15 25 12.95  24.3r 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  07.51946  03 06 18.311  +15 24 52.48  24.4w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  17.28542  03 05 11.531  +15 21 38.22  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 11  17.33469  03 05 11.193  +15 21 37.24  24.8w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 12  13.34802  03 02 27.347  +15 14 25.55  25.0w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2015 12  13.40657  03 02 27.015  +15 14 24.78  25.3w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 01  01.40134  03 00 59.734  +15 11 45.47  24.8w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 01  07.34755  03 00 40.565  +15 11 32.66  24.9w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 02  04.27768  03 00 12.526  +15 15 00.84  25.1w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 02  10.26747  03 00 20.490  +15 16 44.45  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 09  06.60560  03 20 02.192  +17 02 03.58        15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 09  26.59656  03 19 03.899  +17 00 15.09  24.8w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 10  10.40230  03 17 57.860  +16 57 29.08  25.0w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 10  10.46065  03 17 57.542  +16 57 28.26  24.6w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 10  27.49100  03 16 14.782  +16 52 50.31  24.6w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 10  27.49679  03 16 14.741  +16 52 50.28  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 11  02.59707  03 15 34.154  +16 50 58.58  24.9w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 11  02.60285  03 15 34.116  +16 50 58.43  25.1w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 11  03.51606  03 15 27.932  +16 50 41.32  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 11  03.52184  03 15 27.898  +16 50 41.20  24.6w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 12  24.29598  03 10 09.593  +16 37 10.77  24.6w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 12  28.39306  03 09 51.376  +16 36 37.56  25.3w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 12  28.40104  03 09 51.346  +16 36 37.43  25.1w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 12  29.35861  03 09 47.362  +16 36 30.84  25.0w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2016 12  29.36878  03 09 47.319  +16 36 30.88  24.9w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  01.25561  03 09 35.934  +16 36 13.48  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  01.26608  03 09 35.883  +16 36 13.20  24.6w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  02.36563  03 09 31.790  +16 36 07.65  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  02.37586  03 09 31.752  +16 36 07.69  24.8w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  02.39822  03 09 31.662  +16 36 07.52  25.0w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  26.27054  03 08 40.783  +16 36 40.76  24.9w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 01  26.28489  03 08 40.777  +16 36 40.94  24.9w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 09  15.58856  03 28 26.684  +18 22 15.78  24.6w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 09  22.57478  03 28 05.971  +18 21 50.53        15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 12  16.34929  03 19 37.275  +18 01 37.33  24.7w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      
2017 12  16.36856  03 19 37.165  +18 01 36.99  24.4w 15VM164   568  C~2lVX      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.10
     2   0.0003    -10.83     0.17       1.20     0.06
     3   0.0006    -22.62    -0.12       1.91    -0.27
     4   0.0055   -199.62     0.07      18.28     0.07
     5   0.0168   -600.12    -0.04      56.47     0.14
     6   0.8056  14267.09     0.09    2435.68     0.03
     7   0.8193  14101.03    -0.03    2455.67     0.06
     8   0.8875  12632.32    -0.00    2574.44    -0.07
     9   0.8903  12553.76     0.00    2580.18     0.08
    10   0.8905  12548.93    -0.14    2580.40    -0.06
    11   0.8905  12548.12    -0.00    2580.75     0.22
    12   0.8905  12547.07     0.01    2580.43    -0.17
    13   0.9692   9897.21     0.04    2771.31     0.09
    14   0.9694   9890.74     0.01    2771.80     0.06
    15   0.9696   9883.43    -0.08    2772.36     0.03
    16   0.9697   9876.50     0.08    2772.78    -0.12
    17   0.9725   9773.87     0.05    2780.80    -0.02
    18   0.9993   8789.93    -0.02    2860.51     0.05
    19   0.9994   8784.95    -0.00    2860.92     0.01
    20   1.0706   6384.39    -0.00    3105.21     0.01
    21   1.0708   6379.55    -0.05    3105.82    -0.01
    22   1.1228   5121.16    -0.13    3306.95    -0.09
    23   1.1391   4851.10     0.13    3372.71     0.06
    24   1.2155   4520.20    -0.03    3686.90     0.06
    25   1.2319   4660.09    -0.13    3753.88     0.02
    26   1.8051  22857.06    -0.11    5242.97    -0.01
    27   1.8598  22011.51    -0.00    5355.20    -0.08
    28   1.8976  21043.00    -0.07    5441.67     0.04
    29   1.8978  21038.33    -0.00    5442.07     0.02
    30   1.9444  19527.61     0.00    5560.24    -0.09
    31   1.9444  19527.03    -0.01    5560.36    -0.01
    32   1.9611  18930.30     0.15    5606.08     0.07
    33   1.9611  18929.73     0.16    5606.08     0.02
    34   1.9636  18838.81    -0.02    5613.00    -0.03
    35   1.9636  18838.30     0.06    5613.01    -0.06
    36   2.1027  14184.70     0.00    6053.14     0.05
    37   2.1139  13922.37    -0.09    6091.99    -0.01
    38   2.1139  13921.92    -0.04    6091.98    -0.09
    39   2.1165  13864.73     0.01    6101.14    -0.05
    40   2.1165  13864.15     0.04    6101.34     0.06
    41   2.1244  13701.14     0.09    6128.92     0.09
    42   2.1245  13700.36    -0.11    6128.85    -0.09
    43   2.1275  13641.96    -0.00    6139.46    -0.06
    44   2.1275  13641.44     0.03    6139.64     0.03
    45   2.1276  13640.14    -0.07    6139.83    -0.00
    46   2.1929  12942.42     0.03    6370.73     0.00
    47   2.1930  12942.38     0.09    6370.93     0.06
    48   2.8290  31204.04    -0.01    8110.91     0.05
    49   2.8481  30905.46    -0.05    8159.52     0.09
    50   3.0802  23454.03     0.02    8814.47    -0.01
    51   3.0803  23452.40     0.02    8814.55    -0.10

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VM164    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.650    39.659    39.641
ecceobj         0.260     0.260     0.260
incobj         18.255    18.255    18.255
qmin           28.047    27.880    29.106
qmax           51.538    51.673    50.257
amean          39.455    39.455    39.455
amin           38.954    38.965    38.966
amax           40.033    40.016    39.999
emean           0.234     0.237     0.216
emin            0.182     0.184     0.177
emax            0.288     0.292     0.260
imean          18.020    17.882    18.646
imin           15.654    15.573    17.305
imax           19.723    19.827    19.792
excite_mean     0.389     0.389     0.386
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.879     2.879     2.881

libcent 0       179.1     181.1     180.3
libamp  0       109.4     104.8     111.4
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       279.3     267.6     238.2
kozaiamp         68.6      67.5     180.0