Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VJ173

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VJ173   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:44 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     44 observations of     44
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000095   0.018034  -0.000043   0.007460   0.022025   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    11.55 DOF:     82 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.23    0.24
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.206580E-05  1.798105E-02  6.462850E-06  7.442752E-03  2.205516E-02 -2.742917E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.2307E-13 -2.2734E-13  3.2286E-14 -6.3346E-14 -1.2040E-13 -2.8737E-12
 -2.2734E-13  3.3399E-13 -5.9279E-14  1.1657E-13  2.0726E-13  5.2874E-12
  3.2286E-14 -5.9279E-14  1.4972E-13 -9.6254E-14 -4.1820E-14 -1.1063E-12
 -6.3346E-14  1.1657E-13 -9.6254E-14  9.7801E-14  8.0792E-14  2.1793E-12
 -1.2040E-13  2.0726E-13 -4.1820E-14  8.0792E-14  2.2239E-13  3.6696E-12
 -2.8737E-12  5.2874E-12 -1.1063E-12  2.1793E-12  3.6696E-12  9.8836E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.776614   47.809778   -0.114504   -0.047465   -0.981681  2456978.772168
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          251.97921 +/-     0.110
Argument of Peri:      116.63919 +/-     0.096
Long of Asc Node:       54.48855 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            22.64451 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.15480168 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     43.38139197 +/-    0.0062
Time of Perihelion: 2488285.9395 +/-      31.1
Perihelion:          36.66587957 +/-    0.0179
Aphelion:            50.09690436 +/-    0.0185
Period (y)              285.7350 +/-      0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           30.98708372 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y           34.36103792 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Z           -2.19612639 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00185643 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00127528 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00093943 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   46.32173632 +/-    0.0007
Geocenter to KBO     45.34086701 +/-    0.0010
# Hcoef:  8.15

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VJ173. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VJ173) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.27139  03 04 35.629  +14 28 24.13  24.2r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  17.38009  03 04 35.110  +14 28 22.68  24.5r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  17.49387  03 04 34.571  +14 28 21.36  24.8r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  19.28114  03 04 26.358  +14 27 55.64  25.1r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2014 11  23.38468  03 04 07.662  +14 26 59.01  23.7r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 08  11.61007  03 12 42.667  +15 24 18.41  24.6w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 09  06.62757  03 12 32.916  +15 24 08.30  24.8w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 09  12.51723  03 12 22.868  +15 23 36.20  25.0w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 10  07.45292  03 11 12.185  +15 19 41.05  24.7w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 10  08.45753  03 11 08.495  +15 19 28.74  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 10  08.51654  03 11 08.285  +15 19 27.89  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  07.36426  03 09 00.410  +15 12 30.15  24.8r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  07.40638  03 09 00.213  +15 12 29.55  24.9r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  07.44859  03 09 00.011  +15 12 28.98  24.6r 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  10.53471  03 08 45.599  +15 11 43.57  24.0w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  17.38127  03 08 13.638  +15 10 04.65  25.0w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 11  17.42797  03 08 13.420  +15 10 04.05  25.0w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 12  13.32462  03 06 20.636  +15 04 44.11  25.0w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2015 12  13.38310  03 06 20.411  +15 04 43.68  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 01  07.32440  03 05 02.737  +15 02 09.55  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  04.30735  03 04 33.314  +15 03 33.05  25.7w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  04.32803  03 04 33.320  +15 03 33.25  25.3w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  05.26985  03 04 33.549  +15 03 40.93  25.2w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 02  10.29068  03 04 36.015  +15 04 28.85  25.4w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 09  06.61716  03 16 10.487  +16 04 56.54  25.1w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 09  26.60468  03 15 25.606  +16 02 43.28  26.5w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 10  10.41386  03 14 38.475  +16 00 15.14  25.1w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 10  10.47261  03 14 38.248  +16 00 14.52  25.0w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 10  27.50838  03 13 26.928  +15 56 29.70  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 10  27.51417  03 13 26.906  +15 56 29.58  24.8w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 11  03.53920  03 12 54.768  +15 54 49.54  24.8w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 12  28.40571  03 09 03.412  +15 44 13.13  25.3w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 12  29.36323  03 09 00.579  +15 44 07.73  25.3w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2016 12  29.36878  03 09 00.561  +15 44 07.75  25.2w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 01  01.26044  03 08 52.387  +15 43 53.36  25.2w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 01  01.26608  03 08 52.353  +15 43 53.30  25.2w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 01  02.37026  03 08 49.396  +15 43 48.37  25.2w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 01  02.37586  03 08 49.388  +15 43 48.42  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 01  26.26424  03 08 09.444  +15 43 46.72  25.1w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 01  26.27054  03 08 09.441  +15 43 46.88  25.2w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 09  15.60092  03 19 36.253  +16 45 08.84  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 09  22.58685  03 19 19.671  +16 44 23.89  24.9w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 12  16.38250  03 13 25.625  +16 27 21.15  24.8w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      
2017 12  16.38715  03 13 25.608  +16 27 21.12  24.7w 15VJ173   568  C~2nwH      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.23
     2   0.0003     -7.65     0.05       0.69    -0.10
     3   0.0006    -15.53     0.05       1.58     0.22
     4   0.0055   -137.29    -0.16       9.78    -0.05
     5   0.0167   -413.92    -0.01      30.36     0.08
     6   0.7319   7707.85    -0.05    1312.06    -0.05
     7   0.8032   7569.07     0.02    1340.00     0.08
     8   0.8193   7420.27    -0.19    1347.91    -0.03
     9   0.8876   6371.10     0.12    1395.40     0.05
    10   0.8903   6316.32    -0.05    1397.88     0.07
    11   0.8905   6313.16     0.09    1397.88    -0.10
    12   0.9722   4417.32     0.04    1495.14    -0.04
    13   0.9723   4414.42     0.08    1495.33    -0.04
    14   0.9724   4411.44     0.06    1495.58     0.02
    15   0.9809   4198.24    -0.09    1508.45    -0.00
    16   0.9996   3725.90    -0.06    1538.94     0.02
    17   0.9997   3722.70    -0.00    1539.23     0.07
    18   1.0706   2063.85    -0.09    1677.26    -0.06
    19   1.0708   2060.59     0.04    1677.74     0.05
    20   1.1391    936.34    -0.10    1838.61    -0.03
    21   1.2157    549.64    -0.05    2036.39     0.11
    22   1.2158    549.78     0.01    2036.56     0.13
    23   1.2183    555.09     0.12    2043.02    -0.14
    24   1.2321    602.64    -0.11    2079.23     0.24
    25   1.8052  11255.32     0.04    2870.20    -0.01
    26   1.8599  10594.24    -0.05    2911.94    -0.12
    27   1.8977   9897.99     0.06    2948.51    -0.11
    28   1.8979   9894.66     0.10    2948.78    -0.03
    29   1.9445   8841.12     0.03    3004.79    -0.04
    30   1.9445   8840.78     0.08    3004.76    -0.10
    31   1.9638   8366.45    -0.08    3031.74    -0.04
    32   2.1140   4975.54    -0.06    3315.90    -0.07
    33   2.1166   4934.68     0.03    3321.78    -0.11
    34   2.1166   4934.44     0.03    3321.87    -0.05
    35   2.1245   4816.86     0.11    3340.01     0.08
    36   2.1246   4816.37    -0.15    3340.09     0.12
    37   2.1276   4773.92     0.01    3346.92    -0.01
    38   2.1276   4773.82     0.13    3347.00     0.04
    39   2.1930   4218.01    -0.09    3502.00     0.00
    40   2.1930   4218.01    -0.03    3502.17     0.13
    41   2.8291  14758.33     0.01    4431.71     0.09
    42   2.8482  14515.37    -0.17    4449.87    -0.11
    43   3.0804   9317.40     0.06    4797.08     0.03
    44   3.0804   9317.16     0.08    4797.11     0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VJ173    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        43.625    43.641    43.609
ecceobj         0.148     0.149     0.147
incobj         22.574    22.575    22.574
qmin           35.957    35.893    35.965
qmax           51.103    51.174    51.083
amean          43.372    43.386    43.333
amin           43.024    43.033    42.970
amax           43.786    43.787    43.737
emean           0.151     0.152     0.150
emin            0.135     0.136     0.135
emax            0.168     0.169     0.168
imean          21.511    21.511    21.479
imin           20.951    20.958    20.923
imax           22.028    22.036    21.999
excite_mean     0.397     0.397     0.396
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.902     2.902     2.902

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.3     183.6     183.3
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0