Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VJ165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VJ165   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:36 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     43 observations of     43
# Arc:   3.07y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/13
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000032   0.032138  -0.000007   0.003135   0.028931   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     4.32 DOF:     80 RMS:  0.06
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.14    0.16
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.787290E-05  3.237160E-02  9.475373E-07  3.158368E-03  2.923843E-02  1.081004E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.4933E-13 -2.8385E-13  1.1833E-14 -2.1640E-14 -1.0821E-13 -2.1664E-12
 -2.8385E-13  4.5064E-13 -2.1845E-14  4.0358E-14  1.7200E-13  4.0362E-12
  1.1833E-14 -2.1845E-14  1.3017E-13 -6.7451E-14 -9.6201E-15 -2.1724E-13
 -2.1640E-14  4.0358E-14 -6.7451E-14  4.9191E-14  1.6412E-14  4.0216E-13
 -1.0821E-13  1.7200E-13 -9.6201E-15  1.6412E-14  1.6820E-13  1.6546E-12
 -2.1664E-12  4.0362E-12 -2.1724E-13  4.0216E-13  1.6546E-12  4.0213E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.478819   48.675573   -0.100440   -0.042424   -0.983446  2456978.818008
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:           16.10905 +/-     0.081
Argument of Peri:      316.43546 +/-     0.103
Long of Asc Node:       72.14777 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             6.07164 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.10931325 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.26425778 +/-    0.0022
Time of Perihelion: 2452949.2423 +/-      20.3
Perihelion:          34.97215433 +/-    0.0041
Aphelion:            43.55636122 +/-    0.0044
Period (y)              246.0392 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           23.13435839 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           26.46779404 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -1.47920454 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00220546 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00208218 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00029119 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   35.18423945 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     34.20155971 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef:  8.30

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VJ165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VJ165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.31723  03 07 41.809  +14 59 48.05  23.6r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2014 11  17.42609  03 07 41.180  +14 59 45.67  23.6r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2014 11  17.54029  03 07 40.517  +14 59 43.16  23.6r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2014 11  19.33914  03 07 30.211  +14 59 05.49  23.7r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2014 11  23.44182  03 07 06.887  +14 57 41.06  23.8r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 08  11.56405  03 20 00.902  +16 01 03.31  23.8w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 09  06.61072  03 20 03.355  +16 00 15.58  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 09  12.50083  03 19 53.487  +15 59 26.46  23.7w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 10  07.42237  03 18 33.573  +15 53 46.91  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 10  08.43421  03 18 29.185  +15 53 29.34  24.2w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 10  08.49327  03 18 28.923  +15 53 28.28  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  07.34317  03 15 53.075  +15 43 34.24  23.8r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  07.38533  03 15 52.830  +15 43 33.45  23.8r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  07.42748  03 15 52.580  +15 43 32.52  23.6r 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  10.51130  03 15 34.719  +15 42 27.57  23.7w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  17.35801  03 14 54.936  +15 40 04.91  23.8w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  17.40462  03 14 54.656  +15 40 03.98  23.8w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 12  06.36680  03 13 08.696  +15 34 01.12  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 12  06.51621  03 13 07.894  +15 33 58.54  24.3w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 12  13.30120  03 12 33.628  +15 32 08.48  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 12  13.35972  03 12 33.347  +15 32 07.55  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 01  07.30127  03 10 57.071  +15 27 41.70  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  04.33458  03 10 24.395  +15 28 10.01  24.2w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  11.22361  03 10 30.349  +15 29 14.44  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 09  07.57941  03 27 08.096  +16 37 55.88  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 09  27.51883  03 26 20.064  +16 34 32.35  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 09  29.49059  03 26 13.185  +16 34 05.16  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  05.49370  03 25 50.130  +16 32 35.59  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  07.49825  03 25 41.761  +16 32 03.61  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  07.59395  03 25 41.338  +16 32 02.24  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  09.49835  03 25 33.098  +16 31 30.81  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  09.57103  03 25 32.766  +16 31 29.56  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 11  02.48525  03 23 30.027  +16 24 01.41  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 12  24.33186  03 18 50.675  +16 08 51.65  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 12  28.44224  03 18 34.384  +16 08 07.82  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 01  02.43457  03 18 16.664  +16 07 23.27  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 01  26.34976  03 17 27.439  +16 06 18.17  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 09  16.62789  03 34 01.681  +17 13 42.40  24.0w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 09  23.56691  03 33 44.392  +17 12 34.50        15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 12  13.38599  03 26 54.145  +16 49 40.72  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 12  13.39528  03 26 54.087  +16 49 40.52  23.9w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 12  13.42326  03 26 53.942  +16 49 40.12  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 12  13.43255  03 26 53.892  +16 49 39.98  24.1w 15VJ165   568  C~2lVa      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.16
     2   0.0003     -9.42     0.01       0.19     0.04
     3   0.0006    -19.34     0.05       0.38    -0.05
     4   0.0055   -173.29    -0.01       4.76     0.06
     5   0.0168   -521.49     0.00      15.57     0.02
     6   0.7317  11285.93     0.07     712.74    -0.03
     7   0.8030  11307.84    -0.04     657.42     0.00
     8   0.8191  11157.25    -0.07     646.66    -0.03
     9   0.8874   9952.88    -0.07     617.07     0.00
    10   0.8901   9887.03    -0.03     616.54    -0.00
    11   0.8903   9883.10    -0.01     616.50    -0.04
    12   0.9720   7552.53     0.09     630.76    -0.14
    13   0.9721   7548.91     0.14     630.93    -0.06
    14   0.9722   7545.18     0.09     630.98    -0.10
    15   0.9807   7278.93     0.03     636.13    -0.06
    16   0.9994   6686.45     0.00     649.88    -0.01
    17   0.9996   6682.30    -0.06     650.05     0.04
    18   1.0515   5108.84     0.03     705.59     0.04
    19   1.0519   5096.98    -0.04     706.18     0.08
    20   1.0705   4590.09    -0.10     731.91     0.08
    21   1.0706   4585.93     0.01     732.09     0.00
    22   1.1389   3173.38     0.04     848.07    -0.01
    23   1.2157   2725.86    -0.06    1002.25    -0.07
    24   1.2345   2826.11    -0.01    1041.17     0.02
    25   1.8077  17828.81    -0.02    1294.34     0.01
    26   1.8623  17104.23    -0.04    1269.66    -0.01
    27   1.8677  17000.97    -0.05    1268.09    -0.01
    28   1.8841  16655.32     0.04    1264.46    -0.11
    29   1.8896  16529.99     0.05    1263.71    -0.10
    30   1.8899  16523.72     0.02    1263.91     0.11
    31   1.8951  16400.35     0.06    1263.25    -0.01
    32   1.8953  16395.38    -0.01    1263.24    -0.03
    33   1.9608  14563.53    -0.04    1275.43     0.06
    34   2.1027  10427.07     0.04    1427.88     0.05
    35   2.1140  10188.41    -0.04    1446.44     0.08
    36   2.1276   9929.65    -0.01    1469.74    -0.02
    37   2.1931   9226.30     0.03    1591.66    -0.08
    38   2.8318  24174.94    -0.02    1924.88     0.01
    39   2.8508  23914.66     0.00    1918.56     0.04
    40   3.0721  17810.84     0.12    2029.66     0.02
    41   3.0721  17809.97    -0.03    2029.68    -0.00
    42   3.0722  17807.84    -0.03    2029.81     0.02
    43   3.0722  17807.11    -0.06    2029.85     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VJ165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.580    39.588    39.572
ecceobj         0.117     0.117     0.117
incobj          6.066     6.066     6.066
qmin           34.219    34.274    34.222
qmax           45.281    45.336    45.500
amean          39.460    39.460    39.460
amin           38.962    38.968    38.949
amax           39.989    39.978    40.004
emean           0.113     0.112     0.113
emin            0.091     0.091     0.090
emax            0.133     0.134     0.137
imean           3.633     3.842     3.402
imin            1.579     1.945     1.052
imax            5.317     5.416     5.719
excite_mean     0.131     0.132     0.129
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.032     3.032     3.032

libcent 0       181.2     179.8     180.0
libamp  0       118.7     116.0     122.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       179.2     186.1     181.2
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     179.9