Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VJ164

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VJ164   
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:36 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     45 observations of     45
# Arc:   2.19y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/01/26
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000026   0.019135   0.000007   0.002095   0.022460   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    11.28 DOF:     84 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.25    0.21
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.268138E-05  1.936551E-02  1.565301E-06  2.127186E-03  2.270680E-02  2.824623E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.9525E-13 -5.2673E-13  2.3202E-14 -4.6015E-14 -2.7116E-13 -8.5624E-12
 -5.2673E-13  8.8600E-13 -4.5627E-14  9.0751E-14  5.0549E-13  1.6881E-11
  2.3202E-14 -4.5627E-14  1.8844E-13 -1.2876E-13 -2.8380E-14 -9.8796E-13
 -4.6015E-14  9.0751E-14 -1.2876E-13  1.1057E-13  5.5832E-14  1.9702E-12
 -2.7116E-13  5.0549E-13 -2.8380E-14  5.5832E-14  3.7966E-13  1.0399E-11
 -8.5624E-12  1.6881E-11 -9.8796E-13  1.9702E-12  1.0399E-11  3.6636E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.075792   47.654987   -0.119501   -0.018283   -0.982044  2456978.906378
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          127.15325 +/-     0.200
Argument of Peri:      207.47445 +/-     0.188
Long of Asc Node:       57.29977 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             6.35779 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.20201021 +/-    0.0005
Semi-Major Axis:     39.36598304 +/-    0.0079
Time of Perihelion: 2425106.1503 +/-      49.3
Perihelion:          31.41365235 +/-    0.0201
Aphelion:            47.31831374 +/-    0.0213
Period (y)              246.9960 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           30.22982357 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Y           33.35198992 +/-    0.0009
Ecliptic Z           -0.82680188 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00149745 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00182309 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00025015 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   45.02089588 +/-    0.0009
Geocenter to KBO     44.03967198 +/-    0.0012
# Hcoef:  7.61

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VJ164. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VJ164) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.40560  03 02 01.293  +16 03 52.43  24.3r 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2014 11  17.51968  03 02 00.726  +16 03 50.35  23.9r 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2014 11  23.41007  03 01 33.456  +16 02 05.13  24.4r 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 08  11.60566  03 10 51.411  +16 46 54.12  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 08  11.62323  03 10 51.423  +16 46 54.32  24.5w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 09  06.63576  03 10 42.384  +16 46 15.41  24.6w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 09  07.53281  03 10 41.050  +16 46 10.26  24.5w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 09  12.52956  03 10 32.299  +16 45 35.36  24.5w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 10  07.47166  03 09 20.656  +16 40 53.87  24.6w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 10  08.47003  03 09 16.945  +16 40 39.29  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 10  08.52822  03 09 16.716  +16 40 38.45  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 11  06.28626  03 07 12.220  +16 32 37.02  24.2r 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 11  06.34963  03 07 11.907  +16 32 36.03  24.2r 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 11  06.42017  03 07 11.560  +16 32 34.85  23.9r 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 11  06.48956  03 07 11.247  +16 32 33.40  23.9r 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 11  07.50772  03 07 06.440  +16 32 15.09  24.3w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 11  17.27960  03 06 20.325  +16 29 19.36  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 11  17.32888  03 06 20.091  +16 29 18.53  24.3w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 12  06.40182  03 04 54.192  +16 23 57.25  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 12  13.33636  03 04 26.128  +16 22 14.62  24.3w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 12  13.34220  03 04 26.102  +16 22 14.54  24.3w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 12  13.39494  03 04 25.897  +16 22 13.81  24.0w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2015 12  13.40075  03 04 25.869  +16 22 13.70  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 01  01.38920  03 03 23.342  +16 18 35.98  24.3w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 01  02.35555  03 03 20.826  +16 18 27.72  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 01  07.33598  03 03 09.019  +16 17 50.24  24.0w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 01  07.34177  03 03 09.012  +16 17 50.24  24.0w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 02  03.22261  03 02 42.165  +16 17 05.33  24.4w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 02  03.22917  03 02 42.175  +16 17 05.40  24.6w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 02  04.26610  03 02 42.453  +16 17 09.33  24.4w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 02  10.25584  03 02 45.985  +16 17 39.06  24.5w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 02  10.26162  03 02 45.985  +16 17 39.11  24.4w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 09  07.55628  03 14 53.640  +17 10 16.10        15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 09  26.61685  03 14 10.121  +17 07 30.66  24.3w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 10  10.43169  03 13 22.646  +17 04 30.87  24.5w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 10  10.49031  03 13 22.411  +17 04 30.11  24.2w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 10  27.52577  03 12 10.556  +16 59 59.55  24.4w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 11  03.55078  03 11 38.195  +16 57 58.39  24.6w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 12  28.39306  03 07 46.776  +16 43 59.37  25.1w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 12  28.40104  03 07 46.742  +16 43 59.31  24.8w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2016 12  29.35861  03 07 43.946  +16 43 49.95  24.6w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2017 01  01.25561  03 07 35.890  +16 43 23.45  24.3w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2017 01  02.36563  03 07 32.956  +16 43 13.92  24.5w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2017 01  26.25322  03 06 54.814  +16 41 33.19  24.4w 15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      
2017 01  26.28489  03 06 54.789  +16 41 33.10        15VJ164   568  C~2lVW      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.02
     2   0.0003     -8.43    -0.18       0.28     0.08
     3   0.0164   -415.28    -0.12       8.96    -0.02
     4   0.7316   8046.66    -0.01     396.31    -0.01
     5   0.7316   8046.88     0.02     396.45     0.14
     6   0.8028   7911.18    -0.25     393.81    -0.18
     7   0.8053   7891.31    -0.04     393.99     0.04
     8   0.8190   7760.69     0.02     394.14     0.00
     9   0.8872   6692.38     0.05     400.34     0.12
    10   0.8900   6637.05    -0.00     400.71     0.02
    11   0.8901   6633.65    -0.09     400.79     0.05
    12   0.9689   4779.21     0.20     423.23    -0.09
    13   0.9690   4774.61     0.08     423.51     0.09
    14   0.9692   4769.48    -0.03     423.73     0.21
    15   0.9694   4764.76     0.17     423.57    -0.06
    16   0.9722   4693.22    -0.00     424.80     0.03
    17   0.9990   4006.94     0.00     437.00    -0.00
    18   0.9991   4003.48     0.02     437.13     0.03
    19   1.0513   2726.63    -0.02     467.53     0.14
    20   1.0703   2310.06     0.07     480.23    -0.06
    21   1.0703   2309.68     0.03     480.26    -0.05
    22   1.0705   2306.64     0.08     480.37    -0.05
    23   1.0705   2306.22     0.00     480.37    -0.06
    24   1.1225   1381.02     0.03     520.11     0.04
    25   1.1251   1343.93    -0.02     522.21    -0.02
    26   1.1388   1170.21    -0.07     533.35    -0.18
    27   1.1388   1170.11     0.02     533.38    -0.17
    28   1.2124    786.30    -0.02     597.61    -0.10
    29   1.2124    786.46     0.12     597.63    -0.09
    30   1.2152    791.40     0.21     600.30     0.04
    31   1.2316    848.51    -0.12     614.72    -0.06
    32   1.2316    848.53    -0.18     614.77    -0.02
    33   1.8074  11778.17     0.01     824.70     0.06
    34   1.8596  11130.86     0.15     829.61    -0.04
    35   1.8974  10424.98     0.02     836.37    -0.08
    36   1.8976  10421.52    -0.03     836.53     0.02
    37   1.9442   9353.70    -0.00     849.71     0.05
    38   1.9634   8873.01    -0.06     856.88     0.13
    39   2.1136   5443.36     0.02     944.71     0.00
    40   2.1136   5442.87    -0.12     944.79     0.06
    41   2.1162   5401.64    -0.06     946.70     0.02
    42   2.1242   5282.99     0.01     952.69     0.02
    43   2.1272   5239.81    -0.03     955.00    -0.03
    44   2.1926   4684.81     0.03    1007.48     0.02
    45   2.1927   4684.44    -0.06    1007.49    -0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VJ164    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.644    39.667    39.621
ecceobj         0.200     0.201     0.199
incobj          6.340     6.340     6.340
qmin           30.465    30.427    30.504
qmax           49.074    49.020    49.117
amean          39.456    39.456    39.456
amin           39.022    39.036    39.007
amax           39.947    39.921    39.978
emean           0.209     0.210     0.208
emin            0.188     0.191     0.191
emax            0.228     0.228     0.229
imean           5.290     5.283     5.290
imin            4.757     4.758     4.751
imax            6.232     6.204     6.224
excite_mean     0.229     0.229     0.228
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.992     2.992     2.993

libcent 0       179.8     179.8     180.6
libamp  0        67.6      62.2      73.7
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       187.9     188.5     188.4
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     179.9