Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VG168

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VG168   
# Created Thu Dec  9 02:13:37 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     46 observations of     46
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000155   0.013714   0.000031   0.003334   0.017830   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     3.33 DOF:     86 RMS:  0.05
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.12    0.11
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.221611E-05  1.406993E-02  3.032635E-06  3.420922E-03  1.814189E-02  7.347632E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.2588E-13 -2.4041E-13  2.0792E-14 -4.0457E-14 -1.2902E-13 -4.1106E-12
 -2.4041E-13  3.6385E-13 -3.8752E-14  7.5544E-14  2.3160E-13  7.6743E-12
  2.0792E-14 -3.8752E-14  1.4032E-13 -8.2047E-14 -2.8439E-14 -9.5270E-13
 -4.0457E-14  7.5544E-14 -8.2047E-14  6.9786E-14  5.4254E-14  1.8599E-12
 -1.2902E-13  2.3160E-13 -2.8439E-14  5.4254E-14  2.4613E-13  5.5221E-12
 -4.1106E-12  7.6743E-12 -9.5270E-13  1.8599E-12  5.5221E-12  1.8891E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.059639   48.203540   -0.107747   -0.035204   -0.982961  2456978.772168
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:           47.47714 +/-     0.083
Argument of Peri:      249.57317 +/-     0.023
Long of Asc Node:       56.58147 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            13.80892 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.46814391 +/-    0.0008
Semi-Major Axis:     64.90225878 +/-    0.0637
Time of Perihelion: 2431783.8646 +/-      23.7
Perihelion:          34.51866163 +/-    0.0634
Aphelion:            95.28585592 +/-    0.1077
Period (y)              522.8751 +/-      0.77
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           37.28576697 +/-    0.0010
Ecliptic Y           41.87377622 +/-    0.0011
Ecliptic Z           -1.98088183 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00083633 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00225018 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00047618 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   56.10316788 +/-    0.0011
Geocenter to KBO     55.12105169 +/-    0.0015
# Hcoef:  5.58

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VG168. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VG168) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.27139  03 05 20.520  +15 16 15.44  23.0r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2014 11  17.38009  03 05 20.103  +15 16 14.00  22.8r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2014 11  17.49387  03 05 19.658  +15 16 12.51  23.0r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2014 11  19.28114  03 05 12.887  +15 15 48.62  22.8r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2014 11  23.38468  03 04 57.433  +15 14 54.91  22.9r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 08  11.61007  03 12 00.647  +15 54 21.26  23.4w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 09  06.62757  03 11 52.073  +15 53 44.40  23.4w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 09  12.51723  03 11 43.739  +15 53 11.39  23.6w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 10  07.45292  03 10 45.488  +15 49 28.19  23.4w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 10  08.45753  03 10 42.462  +15 49 16.87  23.3w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 10  08.51654  03 10 42.279  +15 49 16.05  23.0w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 11  07.36426  03 08 57.590  +15 42 52.08  22.8r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 11  07.40638  03 08 57.427  +15 42 51.47  22.9r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 11  07.44859  03 08 57.265  +15 42 50.93  23.0r 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 11  10.53471  03 08 45.485  +15 42 09.13  23.3w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 11  17.38127  03 08 19.365  +15 40 37.32  23.0w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 11  17.42797  03 08 19.185  +15 40 36.73  23.1w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 12  06.39016  03 07 09.938  +15 36 43.02  23.4w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 12  13.32462  03 06 47.027  +15 35 30.14  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 12  13.38310  03 06 46.840  +15 35 29.56  23.4w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 01  07.32440  03 05 43.246  +15 32 34.92  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 02  04.30735  03 05 18.901  +15 32 44.36  23.5w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 02  04.31413  03 05 18.897  +15 32 44.21  23.7w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 02  04.32117  03 05 18.903  +15 32 44.28  23.5w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 02  04.32803  03 05 18.899  +15 32 44.43  23.6w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 02  05.26985  03 05 19.074  +15 32 48.80  23.5w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 09  07.55050  03 14 43.740  +16 16 56.81        15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 09  26.61279  03 14 07.865  +16 14 43.07        15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 10  10.42589  03 13 29.357  +16 12 21.48  23.4w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 10  10.48430  03 13 29.172  +16 12 20.88  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 10  10.50790  03 13 29.096  +16 12 20.59  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 10  27.50838  03 12 31.279  +16 08 51.81  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 10  27.51417  03 12 31.258  +16 08 51.78  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 11  03.53341  03 12 05.250  +16 07 19.47  23.1w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 12  28.39306  03 08 58.273  +15 57 10.67  23.9w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 12  28.40104  03 08 58.256  +15 57 10.56  23.7w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 12  29.36878  03 08 55.936  +15 57 04.40  23.3w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 01  01.25561  03 08 49.340  +15 56 47.55  23.3w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 01  01.26608  03 08 49.308  +15 56 47.47  23.3w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 01  02.36563  03 08 46.922  +15 56 41.60  23.4w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 01  02.37586  03 08 46.894  +15 56 41.50  23.5w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 01  26.26424  03 08 14.555  +15 55 56.65  23.3w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 09  15.60092  03 17 23.868  +16 39 06.34  23.5w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 09  22.58685  03 17 10.249  +16 38 17.59        15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 12  16.38250  03 12 25.897  +16 22 08.84  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 12  16.38715  03 12 25.883  +16 22 08.74  23.2w 15VG168   568  C~2lVm      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.01
     2   0.0003     -6.20     0.05       0.27    -0.02
     3   0.0006    -12.80    -0.00       0.61     0.05
     4   0.0055   -113.57     0.04       4.58     0.01
     5   0.0167   -343.36    -0.06      14.46     0.06
     6   0.7319   6186.14    -0.02     633.27     0.06
     7   0.8032   6056.98    -0.11     630.81     0.09
     8   0.8193   5932.19    -0.02     631.17    -0.02
     9   0.8876   5061.98     0.06     641.51    -0.02
    10   0.8903   5016.85    -0.01     642.34     0.05
    11   0.8905   5014.08    -0.06     642.26    -0.09
    12   0.9722   3454.61     0.07     680.18    -0.08
    13   0.9723   3452.18     0.05     680.23    -0.12
    14   0.9724   3449.78     0.08     680.34    -0.10
    15   0.9809   3274.67    -0.02     686.18    -0.00
    16   0.9996   2886.62    -0.03     700.11     0.01
    17   0.9997   2883.96    -0.01     700.25     0.03
    18   1.0517   1857.74     0.06     747.53     0.01
    19   1.0706   1519.39    -0.01     767.78    -0.01
    20   1.0708   1516.63     0.02     767.96    -0.02
    21   1.1391    584.98     0.02     851.59     0.04
    22   1.2157    249.28    -0.01     957.28     0.08
    23   1.2157    249.18    -0.12     957.15    -0.08
    24   1.2157    249.28    -0.03     957.20    -0.06
    25   1.2158    249.27    -0.07     957.36     0.07
    26   1.2183    252.90     0.03     960.86    -0.04
    27   1.8077   8815.92     0.11    1316.27     0.03
    28   1.8599   8281.43     0.06    1323.84     0.00
    29   1.8978   7708.26    -0.03    1334.31    -0.02
    30   1.8979   7705.52    -0.02    1334.44     0.04
    31   1.8980   7704.39    -0.04    1334.45     0.02
    32   1.9445   6844.86    -0.02    1354.75    -0.03
    33   1.9445   6844.56     0.00    1354.80     0.02
    34   1.9638   6458.36    -0.00    1365.83     0.02
    35   2.1140   3696.67    -0.01    1504.19     0.03
    36   2.1140   3696.40     0.02    1504.15    -0.03
    37   2.1166   3662.51     0.02    1507.28    -0.05
    38   2.1245   3566.34     0.09    1516.82     0.02
    39   2.1246   3565.88    -0.03    1516.87     0.03
    40   2.1276   3531.15     0.05    1520.54     0.03
    41   2.1276   3530.73    -0.04    1520.55     0.01
    42   2.1930   3069.49    -0.00    1603.88     0.01
    43   2.8291  11393.96    -0.03    1995.94    -0.03
    44   2.8482  11191.68    -0.03    1999.92    -0.05
    45   3.0804   6982.99     0.00    2144.10     0.06
    46   3.0804   6982.76    -0.00    2144.06     0.00

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VG168    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        65.797    65.983    65.613
ecceobj         0.473     0.475     0.471
incobj         13.769    13.769    13.769
qmin           33.486    33.403    33.681
qmax           98.937    99.176   101.117
amean          64.907    64.387    65.401
amin           62.396    62.611    64.024
amax           66.701    66.820    67.868
emean           0.466     0.462     0.468
emin            0.444     0.439     0.446
emax            0.486     0.489     0.491
imean          13.035    13.106    13.163
imin           11.700    11.840    11.841
imax           14.361    14.106    14.354
excite_mean     0.517     0.515     0.521
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.995     2.993     2.996

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       185.7     202.7     188.5
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0