Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VG165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VG165   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:36 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     43 observations of     43
# Arc:   2.85y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/09/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000304   0.040282   0.000049  -0.007184   0.033154   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.18 DOF:     80 RMS:  0.06
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.16    0.16
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.850404E-05  4.017616E-02 -3.550131E-06 -7.174591E-03  3.309988E-02 -2.979586E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.9687E-13 -3.4398E-13 -1.9803E-14  4.0722E-14 -1.1306E-13 -2.1192E-12
 -3.4398E-13  5.3010E-13  3.6714E-14 -7.5563E-14  2.1349E-13  3.9316E-12
 -1.9803E-14  3.6714E-14  1.6697E-13 -1.0393E-13  1.7451E-14  3.1667E-13
  4.0722E-14 -7.5563E-14 -1.0393E-13  8.6469E-14 -3.7456E-14 -6.5323E-13
 -1.1306E-13  2.1349E-13  1.7451E-14 -3.7456E-14  1.9349E-13  1.9299E-12
 -2.1192E-12  3.9316E-12  3.1667E-13 -6.5323E-13  1.9299E-12  3.3970E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.672949   47.640280   -0.117763   -0.028534   -0.982027  2456978.792408
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          345.45388 +/-     0.026
Argument of Peri:      212.15473 +/-     0.042
Long of Asc Node:      218.85416 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            10.24175 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.21919029 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.37829543 +/-    0.0026
Time of Perihelion: 2460617.4394 +/-       6.4
Perihelion:          30.74695527 +/-    0.0035
Aphelion:            48.00963560 +/-    0.0043
Period (y)              247.1118 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           20.91924146 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           23.12146781 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z           -0.88212903 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00263752 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00203929 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00058589 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   31.19286919 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     30.21158699 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  8.72

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VG165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VG165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.29163  03 02 39.243  +15 29 12.96  23.3r 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2014 11  17.51464  03 02 37.814  +15 29 06.21  23.5r 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2014 11  19.30670  03 02 26.675  +15 28 12.93  23.6r 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2014 11  23.41007  03 02 01.404  +15 26 12.79  23.7r 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 08  11.56405  03 17 48.979  +16 15 29.17  24.1w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 09  06.61072  03 17 56.390  +16 12 31.56  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 09  12.50083  03 17 46.296  +16 11 06.81  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 10  07.42237  03 16 20.486  +16 02 33.37        15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 10  08.43421  03 16 15.707  +16 02 08.09  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 10  08.49327  03 16 15.424  +16 02 06.63  23.7w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  07.34317  03 13 25.098  +15 48 08.70  23.4r 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  07.38533  03 13 24.825  +15 48 07.51  23.6r 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  07.42748  03 13 24.553  +15 48 06.24  23.6r 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  10.51130  03 13 05.030  +15 46 35.28  23.7w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  17.38127  03 12 21.419  +15 43 14.05  23.7w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 11  17.42797  03 12 21.118  +15 43 12.67  23.7w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 12  06.39016  03 10 25.989  +15 34 34.13  23.8w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 12  13.32462  03 09 48.228  +15 31 47.66  23.8w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2015 12  13.38310  03 09 47.917  +15 31 46.35  23.8w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 01  01.37764  03 08 24.984  +15 25 47.55  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 01  07.32440  03 08 06.590  +15 24 29.64  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  04.30735  03 07 38.951  +15 22 38.78  23.8w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  04.31413  03 07 38.974  +15 22 38.71  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  04.32117  03 07 38.962  +15 22 38.71  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  04.32803  03 07 38.976  +15 22 38.85  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  05.26985  03 07 39.835  +15 22 42.63  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 02  10.29068  03 07 46.403  +15 23 11.05  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 09  07.58521  03 27 29.866  +16 23 23.81        15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 09  27.51883  03 26 40.485  +16 17 38.53  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 09  29.49637  03 26 33.154  +16 16 56.27  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  05.49953  03 26 08.464  +16 14 40.02  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  07.50403  03 25 59.474  +16 13 52.27  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  07.59973  03 25 59.017  +16 13 49.87  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  09.50422  03 25 50.126  +16 13 03.46  24.1w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 10  09.57681  03 25 49.778  +16 13 01.57  24.1w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 11  02.49102  03 23 36.199  +16 02 16.81  23.8w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 11  04.46713  03 23 23.887  +16 01 20.59  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 12  24.33677  03 18 31.469  +15 40 33.76  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2016 12  28.44224  03 18 14.043  +15 39 24.65  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 01  02.43952  03 17 55.157  +15 38 11.21  23.5w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 01  26.34976  03 17 05.446  +15 35 13.02  24.0w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 09  15.62132  03 36 56.784  +16 31 11.00  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      
2017 09  22.59895  03 36 40.129  +16 29 11.01  23.9w 15VG165   568  C~2lVa      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.03
     2   0.0006    -21.72    -0.05      -0.74    -0.01
     3   0.0055   -191.21    -0.11      -7.11    -0.00
     4   0.0168   -575.58    -0.09     -20.71     0.03
     5   0.7318  13406.93    -0.02    -864.84    -0.01
     6   0.8031  13463.95    -0.04   -1064.57     0.10
     7   0.8192  13300.81    -0.02   -1108.55     0.06
     8   0.8874  11967.99    -0.01   -1280.67    -0.01
     9   0.8902  11894.63    -0.04   -1286.98     0.04
    10   0.8904  11890.30     0.04   -1287.31     0.04
    11   0.9721   9292.40     0.09   -1445.97    -0.12
    12   0.9722   9288.28     0.07   -1446.07    -0.06
    13   0.9723   9284.15     0.04   -1446.25    -0.09
    14   0.9808   8987.72     0.11   -1458.90    -0.00
    15   0.9996   8326.07    -0.02   -1484.83     0.01
    16   0.9997   8321.50    -0.03   -1485.00    -0.02
    17   1.0516   6578.10     0.11   -1538.23    -0.05
    18   1.0706   6007.21    -0.00   -1551.28    -0.04
    19   1.0708   6002.52     0.01   -1551.33    -0.02
    20   1.1228   4750.39    -0.00   -1571.85     0.05
    21   1.1390   4473.11    -0.01   -1574.49     0.03
    22   1.2156   4058.12    -0.06   -1572.30     0.10
    23   1.2157   4058.42     0.16   -1572.46    -0.06
    24   1.2157   4058.25    -0.09   -1572.41    -0.02
    25   1.2157   4058.49     0.07   -1572.33     0.06
    26   1.2183   4071.48     0.00   -1572.08     0.03
    27   1.2320   4170.66    -0.07   -1570.62    -0.01
    28   1.8078  21674.78     0.03   -2547.83    -0.05
    29   1.8624  20892.05     0.02   -2704.88    -0.04
    30   1.8678  20778.13     0.04   -2719.35     0.02
    31   1.8842  20396.01    -0.16   -2762.04    -0.04
    32   1.8897  20257.36     0.05   -2775.72     0.00
    33   1.8900  20250.32    -0.07   -2776.39    -0.05
    34   1.8952  20113.41    -0.07   -2789.09     0.05
    35   1.8954  20108.03    -0.01   -2789.66    -0.06
    36   1.9608  18065.26    -0.02   -2926.17     0.01
    37   1.9663  17877.88     0.00   -2935.33    -0.01
    38   2.1028  13453.69    -0.01   -3052.38     0.05
    39   2.1140  13191.58     0.07   -3053.46    -0.09
    40   2.1277  12907.92    -0.05   -3053.10     0.08
    41   2.1932  12165.33    -0.09   -3037.02     0.12
    42   2.8291  29826.69     0.07   -4103.61    -0.05
    43   2.8482  29560.08     0.02   -4163.30     0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VG165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.681    39.687    39.675
ecceobj         0.223     0.223     0.223
incobj         10.211    10.211    10.211
qmin           29.953    29.940    29.993
qmax           49.452    49.505    49.501
amean          39.455    39.456    39.455
amin           39.012    39.033    38.997
amax           39.961    39.967    39.971
emean           0.210     0.210     0.212
emin            0.176     0.179     0.178
emax            0.240     0.240     0.239
imean          11.407    11.403    11.356
imin           10.499    10.545    10.438
imax           12.638    12.664    12.614
excite_mean     0.289     0.289     0.289
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.956     2.956     2.956

libcent 0       180.0     180.4     179.9
libamp  0        82.8      80.5      85.1
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       181.8     182.6     181.0
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0