Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VF168

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VF168   
# Created Wed Dec  8 02:13:41 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     28 observations of     28
# Arc:   2.13y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/01/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000325   0.039221   0.000153  -0.027194   0.035592   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     9.90 DOF:     50 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.32    0.22
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.774164E-05  3.899581E-02 -1.276239E-05 -2.712854E-02  3.578795E-02 -3.291014E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.2166E-13 -4.0857E-13 -5.6831E-14  1.6073E-13 -1.4143E-13 -2.8743E-12
 -4.0857E-13  7.7927E-13  1.4623E-13 -4.1264E-13  3.0750E-13  7.3854E-12
 -5.6831E-14  1.4623E-13  2.5957E-13 -2.6607E-13  7.0312E-14  1.7570E-12
  1.6073E-13 -4.1264E-13 -2.6607E-13  4.4086E-13 -2.0114E-13 -4.9563E-12
 -1.4143E-13  3.0750E-13  7.0312E-14 -2.0114E-13  3.1574E-13  3.5816E-12
 -2.8743E-12  7.3854E-12  1.7570E-12 -4.9563E-12  3.5816E-12  8.8719E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -0.889863   46.464928   -0.140144   -0.015053   -0.979363  2456978.921828
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          351.46636 +/-     0.024
Argument of Peri:      198.11744 +/-     0.047
Long of Asc Node:      225.51153 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            34.82048 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.30396587 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     41.14700226 +/-    0.0038
Time of Perihelion: 2459255.7691 +/-       6.3
Perihelion:          28.63971800 +/-    0.0042
Aphelion:            53.65428653 +/-    0.0060
Period (y)              263.9463 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           19.81438517 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           21.06248473 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z           -0.43433928 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00236259 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00184403 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00207113 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   28.92104378 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     27.94236908 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef: 10.25

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VF168. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VF168) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.42105  02 57 03.194  +15 54 27.20  24.8r 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2014 11  17.53510  02 57 02.433  +15 54 22.00  24.6r 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2014 11  19.33265  02 56 50.518  +15 53 02.69  24.8r 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2014 11  23.43547  02 56 23.584  +15 50 03.65  24.7r 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 08  11.61007  03 13 47.077  +15 56 38.93  25.2w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 09  06.62757  03 13 52.248  +15 48 23.09  25.2w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 09  12.51723  03 13 40.791  +15 45 40.99  25.0w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 10  07.45292  03 12 06.371  +15 31 22.00  25.0w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 10  08.45753  03 12 01.217  +15 30 42.90  25.0w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 10  08.51654  03 12 00.907  +15 30 40.23  24.9w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  07.36426  03 08 57.045  +15 09 32.79  24.7r 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  07.40638  03 08 56.757  +15 09 30.88  25.4r 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  07.44859  03 08 56.461  +15 09 29.01  24.8r 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  10.53471  03 08 35.525  +15 07 13.81  24.5w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  17.28542  03 07 49.750  +15 02 20.85  24.8w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  17.33469  03 07 49.397  +15 02 18.81  24.9w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 12  06.41351  03 05 46.402  +14 49 18.69  25.8w 15VF168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 12  13.34802  03 05 06.693  +14 45 03.88  24.9w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2015 12  13.40657  03 05 06.378  +14 45 01.78  24.8w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 01  01.40134  03 03 40.346  +14 35 18.53  25.1w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 01  07.34755  03 03 21.735  +14 32 55.99  25.1w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 02  04.27768  03 02 57.844  +14 26 39.22  25.3w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 02  10.26747  03 03 07.073  +14 26 21.86  25.7w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 09  25.60501  03 23 32.266  +14 43 28.19  24.8w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 10  10.58850  03 22 24.763  +14 33 51.76  24.9w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 11  02.50837  03 20 06.281  +14 17 42.22        15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2016 11  04.48449  03 19 53.109  +14 16 16.86  25.1w 15VF168   568  C~2lVm      
2017 01  02.42405  03 14 06.148  +13 41 18.38        15VF168   568  C~2lVm      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.16
     2   0.0003    -12.00     0.03      -1.86    -0.01
     3   0.0052   -199.37     0.15     -28.88    -0.07
     4   0.0165   -622.94    -0.00     -89.56     0.13
     5   0.7315  13979.80     0.04   -3865.83    -0.02
     6   0.8028  13920.08     0.16   -4364.97    -0.05
     7   0.8189  13716.70    -0.02   -4477.45     0.05
     8   0.8872  12166.94    -0.32   -4941.43    -0.14
     9   0.8899  12084.40    -0.10   -4959.13     0.21
    10   0.8901  12079.35    -0.15   -4960.50    -0.14
    11   0.9718   9167.99     0.05   -5462.66     0.07
    12   0.9719   9163.45     0.06   -5463.36    -0.01
    13   0.9720   9158.80    -0.01   -5464.00    -0.01
    14   0.9805   8829.62    -0.01   -5511.62    -0.09
    15   0.9989   8110.49     0.15   -5612.66    -0.11
    16   0.9991   8105.00    -0.04   -5613.22     0.01
    17   1.0513   6173.87    -0.04   -5874.40    -0.10
    18   1.0703   5549.32    -0.06   -5960.47     0.06
    19   1.0705   5544.34     0.10   -5961.23    -0.00
    20   1.1225   4181.99     0.05   -6175.91     0.03
    21   1.1387   3882.61     0.17   -6237.76    -0.24
    22   1.2152   3444.26    -0.08   -6503.32    -0.06
    23   1.2316   3568.30    -0.10   -6557.40     0.09
    24   1.8568  21074.58     0.12  -10352.31     0.22
    25   1.8978  19968.48     0.02  -10658.06     0.03
    26   1.9605  17754.23    -0.01  -11072.74     0.09
    27   1.9660  17545.42     0.05  -11105.16    -0.09
    28   2.1273  12085.61    -0.10  -11793.02     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VF168    quality flag:2

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURS  CENTAURR

axisobj        41.441    41.452    41.431
ecceobj         0.307     0.308     0.307
incobj         34.743    34.743    34.743
qmin           23.295    24.294    22.432
qmax           58.364    63.433    57.373
amean          40.406    43.518    38.214
amin           38.856    40.645    34.860
amax           41.558    44.386    42.073
emean           0.366     0.372     0.330
emin            0.250     0.287     0.183
emax            0.426     0.440     0.414
imean          33.525    34.159    34.424
imin           31.571    31.571    31.234
imax           36.416    36.555    37.775
excite_mean     0.665     0.675     0.657
fracstop        0.283     1.000     0.774
cjmean          2.535     2.536     2.537

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       180.7     242.7     180.5
kozaiamp         38.8     180.0      52.4