Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VD168

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VD168   
# Created Mon Apr 22 01:10:13 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   32 observations of   32
# Arc:   2.85y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/09/21
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000738   0.027070  -0.000254  -0.011128   0.026337   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     4.21 DOF:   58 RMS:  0.06
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.20    0.13
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.673816E-05  2.872324E-02 -7.435306E-06 -1.177422E-02  2.738338E-02  1.898140E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  2.5176E-13 -2.8673E-13 -2.9251E-14  7.1982E-14 -1.1981E-13 -2.4765E-12
 -2.8673E-13  4.8220E-13  6.1076E-14 -1.4972E-13  2.1076E-13  5.1633E-12
 -2.9251E-14  6.1076E-14  1.6853E-13 -1.2038E-13  3.3205E-14  7.9541E-13
  7.1982E-14 -1.4972E-13 -1.2038E-13  1.4215E-13 -8.3797E-14 -1.9513E-12
 -1.1981E-13  2.1076E-13  3.3205E-14 -8.3797E-14  2.7976E-13  2.8385E-12
 -2.4765E-12  5.1633E-12  7.9541E-13 -1.9513E-12  2.8385E-12  6.7261E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.512329   48.922905   -0.096190   -0.043017   -0.983846  2456978.818008
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:            7.66869 +/-     0.014
Argument of Peri:      112.69906 +/-     0.007
Long of Asc Node:      223.14942 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            22.48548 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.77663934 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:    115.08928218 +/-    0.1370
Time of Perihelion: 2447363.9064 +/-       1.4
Perihelion:          25.70641781 +/-    0.0464
Aphelion:           204.47214656 +/-    0.2458
Period (y)             1234.6974 +/-      2.20
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           24.54372927 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           28.30917289 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z           -1.60105410 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00095723 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00327237 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00125917 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   37.50156384 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     36.51849567 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  8.18

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD168. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD168) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.31723  03 08 43.165  +15 01 53.25  23.5r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2014 11  17.42609  03 08 42.583  +15 01 50.10  24.0r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2014 11  17.54029  03 08 41.973  +15 01 46.82  23.8r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2014 11  19.33914  03 08 32.491  +15 00 56.91  23.8r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2014 11  23.44182  03 08 10.998  +14 59 04.32  23.7r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 08  11.60150  03 20 29.093  +15 23 07.06  23.9w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 09  06.61481  03 20 32.958  +15 18 26.98  24.5w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 09  12.50491  03 20 24.264  +15 16 48.09  23.8w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 10  07.42821  03 19 12.375  +15 07 51.22  24.1w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 10  08.44001  03 19 08.404  +15 07 26.01  24.2w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 10  08.49908  03 19 08.164  +15 07 24.58  24.0w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  07.34843  03 16 47.121  +14 54 03.79  23.9r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  07.39058  03 16 46.894  +14 54 02.61  24.0r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  07.43274  03 16 46.672  +14 54 01.49  23.8r 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  10.51713  03 16 30.495  +14 52 36.85  23.8w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  10.54648  03 16 30.341  +14 52 35.99  24.1w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  17.36382  03 15 54.480  +14 49 31.04  24.2w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 11  17.41043  03 15 54.235  +14 49 29.79  24.1w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 12  06.37266  03 14 18.349  +14 41 32.06  24.2w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 12  06.52203  03 14 17.630  +14 41 28.70  23.8w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2015 12  13.30706  03 13 46.656  +14 38 58.39        15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 01  07.30705  03 12 19.590  +14 32 02.67  24.1w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 02  11.22942  03 11 56.701  +14 29 47.51  24.0w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 09  25.60907  03 26 37.582  +14 58 35.42  24.1w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 10  10.54805  03 25 45.965  +14 52 48.25  24.1w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 10  10.59680  03 25 45.767  +14 52 46.96  24.0w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 11  04.48449  03 23 50.389  +14 41 59.57  24.2w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 12  25.28594  03 19 48.675  +14 22 49.54  24.3w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2016 12  28.43907  03 19 37.689  +14 22 01.73  24.5w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2017 01  27.29257  03 18 38.033  +14 17 51.85  24.4w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2017 09  15.57020  03 33 31.439  +14 48 11.09  23.9w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      
2017 09  21.61548  03 33 18.951  +14 46 14.75  23.9w 15VD168   568  C~2lVl      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.13
  2   0.0003     -8.97     0.00      -0.75     0.00
  3   0.0006    -18.36     0.05      -1.52    -0.08
  4   0.0055   -164.12     0.13     -12.37     0.05
  5   0.0168   -494.38    -0.11     -36.35     0.04
  6   0.7318  10199.98    -0.07   -1471.91    -0.03
  7   0.8030  10181.86    -0.20   -1757.30     0.11
  8   0.8191  10034.49     0.08   -1820.49    -0.00
  9   0.8874   8888.09     0.11   -2070.20     0.04
 10   0.8901   8825.91     0.04   -2079.65    -0.04
 11   0.8903   8822.17     0.04   -2080.12     0.00
 12   0.9720   6637.51     0.04   -2320.60    -0.13
 13   0.9721   6634.02    -0.01   -2320.88    -0.14
 14   0.9723   6630.62     0.03   -2321.11    -0.11
 15   0.9807   6381.87    -0.03   -2341.32     0.04
 16   0.9808   6379.48    -0.01   -2341.56    -0.01
 17   0.9994   5828.71    -0.05   -2383.47     0.03
 18   0.9996   5824.95     0.01   -2383.74     0.01
 19   1.0515   4356.37    -0.01   -2477.58    -0.03
 20   1.0519   4345.42     0.04   -2478.06     0.08
 21   1.0705   3871.98     0.00   -2503.89    -0.04
 22   1.1389   2542.64    -0.06   -2568.37    -0.00
 23   1.2345   2186.18    -0.01   -2609.88     0.01
 24   1.8571  15004.45     0.01   -4259.88    -0.07
 25   1.8980  14188.91    -0.02   -4407.49     0.10
 26   1.8981  14185.79    -0.03   -4408.02     0.02
 27   1.9662  12395.37     0.04   -4609.89    -0.05
 28   2.1053   8697.64     0.06   -4819.31     0.01
 29   2.1140   8530.74    -0.10   -4824.09     0.01
 30   2.1957   7626.99     0.02   -4840.01    -0.01
 31   2.8289  20709.93    -0.04   -6364.61     0.07
 32   2.8454  20503.89     0.07   -6433.37     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VD168    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj       119.435   119.837   119.041
ecceobj         0.785     0.786     0.784
incobj         22.436    22.436    22.436
qmin           24.905    24.814    24.871
qmax          213.168   230.800   213.383
amean         113.671   117.507   112.494
amin          104.265   113.201   107.892
amax          119.435   128.516   119.542
emean           0.772     0.780     0.770
emin            0.749     0.771     0.756
emax            0.785     0.796     0.785
imean          23.851    23.365    23.597
imin           23.037    22.944    22.988
imax           24.826    24.222    24.344
excite_mean     0.871     0.875     0.868
fracstop        0.115     0.109     0.113
cjmean          2.521     2.520     2.523

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       122.9     122.0     121.3
kozaiamp         11.0      10.8      10.2