Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VD157

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VD157   
# Created Thu Apr 18 01:10:37 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   33 observations of   33
# Arc:   2.09y
# First observation: 2015/08/20
#  Last observation: 2017/09/20
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000114   0.035249  -0.000001   0.000515   0.029324   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    12.37 DOF:   60 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.29    0.27
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.903850E-05  3.437491E-02  2.045079E-07  5.020294E-04  2.883590E-02 -4.441426E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.8676E-13 -6.9983E-14  2.7147E-16  4.0624E-16  1.0914E-13  5.2970E-13
 -6.9983E-14  4.6921E-13 -1.0038E-15  6.1813E-15  1.7945E-13  7.4461E-12
  2.7147E-16 -1.0038E-15  9.7577E-14 -8.2478E-14 -1.6553E-16 -2.0737E-14
  4.0624E-16  6.1813E-15 -8.2478E-14  1.2394E-13  3.4232E-15  1.3380E-13
  1.0914E-13  1.7945E-13 -1.6553E-16  3.4232E-15  2.1199E-13  4.1704E-12
  5.2970E-13  7.4461E-12 -2.0737E-14  1.3380E-13  4.1704E-12  1.6130E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -0.325820   52.764194    1.011606   -0.000308   -0.077784  2457255.076589
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457250.5000  =  2015/08/16
Mean Anomaly:          339.38114 +/-     0.030
Argument of Peri:       18.42849 +/-     0.070
Long of Asc Node:       72.43646 +/-     0.013
Inclination:             0.89307 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.31167851 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     47.73596829 +/-    0.0094
Time of Perihelion: 2464150.1826 +/-      10.0
Perihelion:          32.85769270 +/-    0.0147
Aphelion:            62.61424388 +/-    0.0181
Period (y)              329.8199 +/-      0.10
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           21.83220426 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           27.05899533 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -0.19717739 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00285544 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00163301 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00005012 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.76885460 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     34.67899850 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  9.30

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD157. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD157) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  20.57580  03 21 47.814  +18 08 51.92        15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 09  07.61675  03 21 42.255  +18 08 26.03  25.0w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 09  12.46786  03 21 34.516  +18 07 55.60  25.1w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 09  12.48036  03 21 34.496  +18 07 55.68  25.2w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 10  07.52101  03 20 16.149  +18 02 57.71        15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 10  07.58040  03 20 15.888  +18 02 56.71  24.8w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 10  09.56029  03 20 07.286  +18 02 24.14        15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 11  07.33264  03 17 36.321  +17 52 53.28  24.3r 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 11  07.37479  03 17 36.068  +17 52 52.35  24.2r 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 11  07.41697  03 17 35.830  +17 52 51.41  24.4r 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 11  10.49950  03 17 17.878  +17 51 43.42  24.5w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 11  17.34635  03 16 37.886  +17 49 11.86  24.7w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 11  17.39294  03 16 37.610  +17 49 10.83  24.5w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 12  06.35508  03 14 50.793  +17 42 26.23  24.6w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2015 12  06.49265  03 14 50.063  +17 42 23.62  24.7w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 01  01.34294  03 12 56.223  +17 35 15.80  25.1w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 01  07.40549  03 12 37.922  +17 34 08.70  25.2w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 01  08.25043  03 12 35.675  +17 34 00.23  25.0w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 02  05.28189  03 12 07.055  +17 32 31.33  24.9w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 02  10.30227  03 12 11.839  +17 32 54.61  25.1w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 09  07.59677  03 29 48.274  +18 39 45.43  24.9w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 09  27.52706  03 29 02.735  +18 36 59.89  24.7w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 10  07.51560  03 28 25.045  +18 34 44.27  24.9w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 10  07.61130  03 28 24.616  +18 34 42.62  24.5w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 10  09.51605  03 28 16.462  +18 34 13.54  24.8w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 10  09.58836  03 28 16.141  +18 34 12.30  24.8w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 11  02.50259  03 26 13.295  +18 26 50.73  24.6w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 11  04.45547  03 26 02.091  +18 26 10.30  24.5w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 11  04.47870  03 26 01.954  +18 26 09.88  24.4w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2016 12  28.44773  03 21 13.607  +18 08 50.80  24.7w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2017 01  27.31434  03 20 05.355  +18 04 57.29  25.3w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2017 09  15.55809  03 37 51.610  +19 09 26.94  24.5w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      
2017 09  20.60688  03 37 40.856  +19 08 50.25  25.1w 15VD157   568  C~2Wao      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.01
  2   0.0494    -83.21    -0.16      -4.97    -0.05
  3   0.0627   -197.64     0.07      -6.44    -0.29
  4   0.0627   -197.90     0.17      -6.29    -0.15
  5   0.1313  -1354.08     0.03     -10.22    -0.06
  6   0.1314  -1357.93    -0.00     -10.23    -0.09
  7   0.1369  -1484.87    -0.04     -10.39    -0.12
  8   0.2156  -3713.72    -0.07      -8.17     0.12
  9   0.2157  -3717.45    -0.14      -8.13     0.12
 10   0.2159  -3720.98     0.00      -8.16     0.06
 11   0.2243  -3986.22    -0.25      -7.46     0.01
 12   0.2430  -4577.28     0.13      -5.59    -0.01
 13   0.2432  -4581.35     0.14      -5.56    -0.02
 14   0.2951  -6161.01    -0.12       2.39     0.04
 15   0.2955  -6171.77     0.07       2.61     0.16
 16   0.3662  -7856.19    -0.07      18.77     0.15
 17   0.3828  -8126.71     0.27      23.41     0.26
 18   0.3851  -8159.99     0.05      23.76     0.01
 19   0.4619  -8578.90    -0.13      46.74     0.05
 20   0.4756  -8506.63     0.04      51.00     0.08
 21   1.0514   7087.01     0.10      99.91     0.04
 22   1.1060   6418.22    -0.06      96.69    -0.02
 23   1.1333   5865.00     0.08      95.94    -0.08
 24   1.1336   5858.68    -0.18      95.83    -0.21
 25   1.1388   5739.05     0.09      95.99     0.03
 26   1.1390   5734.32     0.10      95.91    -0.08
 27   1.2045   3931.02    -0.02      97.85     0.01
 28   1.2098   3766.48    -0.00      98.15    -0.06
 29   1.2099   3764.49     0.01      98.22     0.01
 30   1.3576   -471.92    -0.13     122.60     0.03
 31   1.4394  -1472.36     0.04     144.72    -0.02
 32   2.0725  14192.07    -0.02     204.70    -0.03
 33   2.0863  14034.60    -0.01     204.30     0.10

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VD157    quality flag:3

Type:           2:1E      2:1E      2:1E

axisobj        48.258    48.274    48.242
ecceobj         0.316     0.316     0.315
incobj          0.892     0.892     0.892
qmin           32.429    32.421    32.432
qmax           63.963    63.917    63.929
amean          47.797    47.797    47.797
amin           47.323    47.336    47.306
amax           48.415    48.387    48.414
emean           0.308     0.308     0.307
emin            0.295     0.295     0.295
emax            0.321     0.321     0.321
imean           0.835     0.811     0.873
imin            0.453     0.454     0.452
imax            1.386     1.378     1.370
excite_mean     0.308     0.308     0.308
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.027     3.027     3.027

libcent 0        71.0      70.8      71.2
libamp  0         9.0       6.2      12.1
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       181.6     182.1     180.6
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0