Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VB165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VB165   
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:37 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     38 observations of     38
# Arc:   2.85y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/09/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000240   0.036443   0.000003   0.000567   0.031102   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     7.69 DOF:     70 RMS:  0.08
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.19    0.28
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.911922E-05  3.714361E-02  9.857293E-07  5.809730E-04  3.143328E-02  4.026579E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.5377E-13 -2.9535E-13  1.8361E-15 -3.3634E-15 -9.7346E-14 -1.9849E-12
 -2.9535E-13  4.9989E-13 -3.8949E-15  7.1048E-15  2.0853E-13  4.2006E-12
  1.8361E-15 -3.8949E-15  1.5859E-13 -9.4133E-14 -2.5549E-15 -3.9412E-14
 -3.3634E-15  7.1048E-15 -9.4133E-14  7.4469E-14  3.1756E-15  6.9676E-14
 -9.7346E-14  2.0853E-13 -2.5549E-15  3.1756E-15  2.3755E-13  2.2607E-12
 -1.9849E-12  4.2006E-12 -3.9412E-14  6.9676E-14  2.2607E-12  4.1767E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.568054   48.796025   -0.098371   -0.043964   -0.983588  2456978.818008
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:           25.55530 +/-     0.026
Argument of Peri:      251.17204 +/-     0.045
Long of Asc Node:      119.25349 +/-     0.008
Inclination:             2.64601 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.20387587 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.67609853 +/-    0.0031
Time of Perihelion: 2450490.5697 +/-       6.5
Perihelion:          31.58709962 +/-    0.0057
Aphelion:            47.76509744 +/-    0.0064
Period (y)              249.9204 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           21.50722532 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           24.71843841 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -1.42541758 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00220606 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00239152 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00003494 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   32.79624603 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     31.81341068 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef:  9.31

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VB165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VB165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.31723  03 08 16.601  +14 56 36.52  24.5r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2014 11  17.42609  03 08 15.938  +14 56 34.13  24.4r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2014 11  17.54029  03 08 15.216  +14 56 31.29  24.2r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2014 11  19.33914  03 08 04.372  +14 55 48.80  24.4r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2014 11  23.44182  03 07 39.760  +14 54 13.68  24.5r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 09  07.62490  03 22 02.651  +15 55 18.99  24.8w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 09  12.48855  03 21 54.441  +15 54 28.43  24.6w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  07.53269  03 20 32.187  +15 47 51.88  24.7w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  07.59208  03 20 31.905  +15 47 50.84  24.6w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  09.57195  03 20 22.892  +15 47 11.32  24.7w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  06.34408  03 17 50.800  +15 36 47.30  24.1r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  06.41470  03 17 50.370  +15 36 45.50  24.5r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  06.48426  03 17 49.953  +15 36 43.93  24.4r 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  07.50182  03 17 43.771  +15 36 19.90  24.5w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  17.57138  03 16 42.250  +15 32 23.96  24.9w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  06.36680  03 14 51.613  +15 25 40.93  24.5w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  06.51621  03 14 50.774  +15 25 37.91  24.4w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  13.30120  03 14 14.674  +15 23 33.98  24.7w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  13.35972  03 14 14.358  +15 23 32.92  24.8w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 01  01.35451  03 12 51.965  +15 19 15.46  24.8w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 01  07.30127  03 12 33.194  +15 18 26.80  24.8w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 01  07.30705  03 12 33.177  +15 18 26.72  24.9w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 02  04.33458  03 12 00.079  +15 18 33.50  25.3w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 02  11.22361  03 12 06.867  +15 19 36.28  24.8w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  07.58521  03 30 16.961  +16 28 00.79        15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  27.51883  03 29 29.384  +16 23 56.48  24.7w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  29.49637  03 29 22.368  +16 23 24.84  24.6w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  05.49953  03 28 58.750  +16 21 41.88  24.9w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  07.50403  03 28 50.168  +16 21 05.39  24.3w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  07.59973  03 28 49.710  +16 21 03.53  25.0w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  09.50422  03 28 41.227  +16 20 27.67  24.4w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  09.57681  03 28 40.887  +16 20 26.45  24.6w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 11  04.46126  03 26 21.477  +16 11 17.47  24.6w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 12  28.44224  03 21 22.068  +15 54 18.09  24.8w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 12  28.45409  03 21 22.020  +15 54 17.82  24.9w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 01  27.30860  03 20 10.937  +15 52 03.61  24.3w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 09  15.62132  03 38 18.204  +16 58 07.31  25.1w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 09  22.59895  03 38 01.927  +16 56 46.89  25.1w 15VB165   568  C~2lVZ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.14
     2   0.0003     -9.90     0.09       0.31     0.01
     3   0.0006    -20.74    -0.19       0.41    -0.02
     4   0.0055   -183.54     0.13       2.16    -0.02
     5   0.0168   -552.70     0.04       7.52     0.10
     6   0.8058  12464.92     0.02     249.98     0.02
     7   0.8191  12337.04    -0.03     231.37     0.10
     8   0.8877  11084.10     0.06     152.67    -0.07
     9   0.8878  11079.88    -0.04     152.71     0.10
    10   0.8932  10943.61     0.02     148.03     0.05
    11   0.9693   8655.49    -0.07     114.42     0.11
    12   0.9695   8649.01    -0.05     114.30    -0.04
    13   0.9697   8642.77     0.13     114.36    -0.01
    14   0.9724   8550.13    -0.11     114.44     0.07
    15   1.0000   7629.00    -0.13     118.98    -0.06
    16   1.0515   5978.18    -0.04     150.62    -0.01
    17   1.0519   5965.67    -0.06     150.91    -0.12
    18   1.0705   5429.04     0.10     169.36    -0.03
    19   1.0706   5424.35    -0.06     169.55    -0.04
    20   1.1226   4206.32    -0.02     237.63     0.02
    21   1.1389   3931.50     0.06     263.06     0.07
    22   1.1389   3931.24     0.05     263.05     0.03
    23   1.2157   3471.41     0.10     397.37     0.02
    24   1.2345   3582.84     0.11     431.65    -0.01
    25   1.8077  19896.00     0.04     362.85     0.00
    26   1.8623  19165.90    -0.01     294.49    -0.06
    27   1.8677  19059.35     0.05     288.75    -0.10
    28   1.8841  18701.57    -0.09     273.00     0.00
    29   1.8896  18571.81     0.28     268.22     0.01
    30   1.8899  18564.90    -0.14     268.05     0.03
    31   1.8951  18436.70     0.01     263.55    -0.15
    32   1.8953  18431.62     0.03     263.59     0.02
    33   1.9662  16335.87     0.03     232.36     0.03
    34   2.1140  11881.42    -0.08     341.21     0.11
    35   2.1140  11880.68    -0.11     341.13    -0.02
    36   2.1957  10852.03    -0.01     475.37    -0.08
    37   2.8290  27134.69    -0.04     449.66    -0.01
    38   2.8481  26884.53     0.02     426.52     0.09

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VB165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        40.042    40.053    40.031
ecceobj         0.212     0.212     0.212
incobj          2.647     2.647     2.647
qmin           31.057    31.067    31.038
qmax           48.601    48.587    48.564
amean          39.457    39.457    39.457
amin           38.923    38.920    38.912
amax           40.052    40.069    40.041
emean           0.197     0.197     0.196
emin            0.180     0.179     0.179
emax            0.214     0.215     0.214
imean           1.617     1.639     1.585
imin            0.828     0.806     0.836
imax            2.281     2.257     2.196
excite_mean     0.199     0.199     0.199
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.006     3.006     3.007

libcent 0       179.8     179.4     180.1
libamp  0       124.6     125.1     122.9
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       195.5     193.7     195.5
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0