Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VA165

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VA165   
# Created Thu Apr 18 01:10:37 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   25 observations of   25
# Arc:   2.27y
# First observation: 2015/09/07
#  Last observation: 2017/12/13
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000204   0.033905  -0.000041  -0.008477   0.030511   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     9.68 DOF:   44 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.33    0.22
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.790520E-05  3.394766E-02 -4.235734E-06 -8.547934E-03  3.065077E-02  9.320223E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.1412E-13 -3.7157E-14  5.5386E-15 -1.8405E-14  1.4643E-13  1.0898E-12
 -3.7157E-14  5.3687E-13  3.5713E-14 -1.5402E-13  2.6102E-13  9.0540E-12
  5.5386E-15  3.5713E-14  1.2407E-13 -1.0153E-13  2.4055E-14  7.8285E-13
 -1.8405E-14 -1.5402E-13 -1.0153E-13  1.8150E-13 -9.6537E-14 -3.3781E-12
  1.4643E-13  2.6102E-13  2.4055E-14 -9.6537E-14  3.1510E-13  5.6852E-12
  1.0898E-12  9.0540E-12  7.8285E-13 -3.3781E-12  5.6852E-12  1.9858E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.578791   52.843036    0.939358   -0.010155   -0.373813  2457273.121609
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457270.5000  =  2015/09/05
Mean Anomaly:           40.83374 +/-     0.017
Argument of Peri:      118.26789 +/-     0.030
Long of Asc Node:      225.02701 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            14.18024 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.27981027 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     39.54936709 +/-    0.0107
Time of Perihelion: 2446966.0602 +/-       1.0
Perihelion:          28.48304818 +/-    0.0182
Aphelion:            50.61568599 +/-    0.0214
Period (y)              248.7239 +/-      0.10
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           20.66888712 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Y           25.72258981 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z           -0.89901828 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00192865 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00247161 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00078613 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   33.01004022 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     32.62561230 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  9.99

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VA165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VA165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 09  07.62082  03 23 26.568  +16 57 18.64  26.1w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 09  12.48448  03 23 18.619  +16 56 11.13  24.6w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  07.52687  03 21 57.456  +16 48 00.95  25.3w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  07.58621  03 21 57.191  +16 47 59.66  25.4w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 10  09.56611  03 21 48.240  +16 47 12.19  25.9w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  06.33883  03 19 16.893  +16 34 43.89  24.5r 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  06.40946  03 19 16.484  +16 34 41.84  24.8r 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  06.47899  03 19 16.016  +16 34 40.07  24.9r 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  07.49597  03 19 09.906  +16 34 10.77  25.1w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 11  17.47779  03 18 09.070  +16 29 26.24  25.0w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  06.34344  03 16 18.089  +16 20 56.36  24.9w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2015 12  31.36453  03 14 21.622  +16 12 05.73  25.2w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 01  07.39390  03 13 59.017  +16 10 21.06  25.3w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 02  11.24684  03 13 32.385  +16 07 36.81  25.5w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  07.60834  03 31 43.951  +16 57 21.40        15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 09  27.53529  03 30 57.457  +16 51 50.33  26.2w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  09.52781  03 30 09.960  +16 47 28.00  23.1w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 10  09.59992  03 30 09.631  +16 47 25.93  25.6w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 11  02.48525  03 28 03.451  +16 37 10.49  25.4w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 11  04.46126  03 27 51.775  +16 36 16.48  25.3w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2016 12  28.45409  03 22 54.047  +16 14 36.58  26.6w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 01  27.30860  03 21 42.681  +16 09 34.20  25.4w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 09  15.62132  03 39 42.029  +16 54 31.05  25.4w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 09  22.59895  03 39 26.158  +16 52 34.82  25.5w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      
2017 12  13.35764  03 32 23.478  +16 20 01.82  25.4w 15VA165   568  C~2lVZ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.04
  2   0.0133   -127.36     0.05     -36.69     0.01
  3   0.0819  -1378.40    -0.01    -217.24    -0.07
  4   0.0820  -1382.41     0.09    -217.52     0.03
  5   0.0875  -1518.79     0.02    -230.91     0.06
  6   0.1635  -3812.72    -0.13    -400.65    -0.01
  7   0.1637  -3818.93     0.19    -401.13    -0.14
  8   0.1639  -3825.89    -0.33    -401.11     0.22
  9   0.1667  -3918.34     0.07    -406.92    -0.15
 10   0.1940  -4837.32     0.12    -457.11     0.01
 11   0.2456  -6512.98     0.15    -536.60    -0.10
 12   0.3142  -8272.61    -0.17    -611.36     0.07
 13   0.3334  -8614.88     0.04    -626.97     0.21
 14   0.4288  -9029.03     0.02    -684.69    -0.04
 15   1.0020   6920.42    -0.06   -1754.05    -0.06
 16   1.0566   6192.23    -0.08   -1914.22     0.02
 17   1.0894   5466.43     0.15   -2003.34     0.21
 18   1.0896   5461.34     0.10   -2004.20    -0.16
 19   1.1550   3552.10    -0.03   -2158.09    -0.01
 20   1.1604   3376.08    -0.03   -2169.20    -0.05
 21   1.3082  -1096.88    -0.17   -2362.26     0.09
 22   1.3900  -2168.05     0.07   -2395.28    -0.09
 23   2.0233  13564.70     0.07   -3543.62    -0.03
 24   2.0424  13315.14    -0.13   -3604.02     0.02
 25   2.2662   6933.42     0.07   -4066.31     0.02

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VA165    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        40.032    40.069    39.996
ecceobj         0.288     0.289     0.287
incobj         14.133    14.133    14.133
qmin           27.946    27.881    27.859
qmax           51.849    51.896    51.814
amean          39.455    39.456    39.455
amin           38.896    38.870    38.960
amax           40.111    40.143    40.051
emean           0.274     0.280     0.264
emin            0.256     0.266     0.234
emax            0.293     0.294     0.294
imean          15.563    15.272    15.917
imin           14.888    14.792    14.688
imax           16.112    15.810    17.106
excite_mean     0.384     0.384     0.381
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.884     2.883     2.885

libcent 0       183.0     178.7     179.7
libamp  0       129.7     135.4     108.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       177.0     185.5     181.0
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0