Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15TP454

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15TP454   
# Created Thu Dec  9 02:13:32 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     17 observations of     17
# Arc:   4.18y
# First observation: 2014/09/25
#  Last observation: 2018/11/30
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000710   0.020586   0.000226  -0.005534   0.022914   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     4.61 DOF:     28 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.18    0.20
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.393473E-05  1.959919E-02 -4.245894E-06 -5.244805E-03  2.226388E-02 -1.222160E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  9.0514E-13 -7.5131E-13 -1.4609E-13  1.7834E-13 -3.6473E-13 -7.1000E-12
 -7.5131E-13  8.7363E-13  1.9467E-13 -2.3766E-13  4.9574E-13  9.4487E-12
 -1.4609E-13  1.9467E-13  4.8890E-13 -1.9062E-13  9.9932E-14  2.2825E-12
  1.7834E-13 -2.3766E-13 -1.9062E-13  1.1888E-13 -1.2269E-13 -2.7845E-12
 -3.6473E-13  4.9574E-13  9.9932E-14 -1.2269E-13  8.2992E-13  4.1239E-12
 -7.1000E-12  9.4487E-12  2.2825E-12 -2.7845E-12  4.1239E-12  1.1292E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -19.691193    9.499487    0.134674   -0.335572   -0.938127  2456925.731968
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456920.5000  =  2014/09/20
Mean Anomaly:          330.78233 +/-     0.041
Argument of Peri:      327.94242 +/-     0.009
Long of Asc Node:      138.15844 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            24.17438 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.58668258 +/-    0.0005
Semi-Major Axis:     66.88908482 +/-    0.0607
Time of Perihelion: 2473137.6423 +/-       6.3
Perihelion:          27.64642374 +/-    0.0423
Aphelion:           106.13174591 +/-    0.1021
Period (y)              547.0677 +/-      0.74
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           42.71163085 +/-    0.0017
Ecliptic Y            7.01291263 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z          -15.13460768 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00201239 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00210312 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00010073 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   45.85325183 +/-    0.0016
Geocenter to KBO     44.91579375 +/-    0.0018
# Hcoef:  6.78

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15TP454. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15TP454) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 09  25.23119  01 06 20.812  -14 19 11.82  22.9i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2015 10  07.19735  01 10 19.026  -14 14 15.90  23.1r 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2015 10  07.19872  01 10 19.015  -14 14 16.00  22.9i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2015 10  22.14380  01 09 14.868  -14 20 28.16  22.6z 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2016 08  16.36483  01 18 06.469  -13 31 55.67  22.8z 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2016 10  05.19382  01 15 18.013  -14 02 07.41  23.4r 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2016 10  05.19519  01 15 18.009  -14 02 07.40  23.0i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2017 09  25.24972  01 21 01.647  -13 44 19.70  23.3r 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2017 09  25.25109  01 21 01.643  -13 44 20.03  23.0i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2017 11  16.11634  01 17 24.146  -14 02 52.05  23.0i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2017 11  18.15759  01 17 16.956  -14 03 00.15  22.4i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2017 11  26.08287  01 16 51.359  -14 03 02.25  23.2z 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2018 10  19.13126  01 24 26.885  -13 43 11.24  22.8z 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2018 11  15.20654  01 22 33.333  -13 50 13.33  23.0i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2018 11  16.08901  01 22 30.071  -13 50 18.48  22.9i 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2018 11  26.09547  01 21 55.889  -13 50 35.40  23.6r 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      
2018 11  30.08589  01 21 43.924  -13 50 21.22  25.0g 15TP454   W84  C~55X8      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.11
     2   1.0321   3283.96     0.11   -1138.66     0.09
     3   1.0321   3283.78     0.01   -1138.69     0.06
     4   1.0730   2280.45    -0.10   -1097.67    -0.16
     5   1.8922  10541.51     0.08   -1633.73    -0.11
     6   2.0286   7551.15    -0.01   -2264.01    -0.03
     7   2.0286   7551.10     0.04   -2263.98     0.01
     8   3.0007  12558.15    -0.07   -3379.88     0.14
     9   3.0007  12557.95    -0.17   -3380.16    -0.13
    10   3.1427   9205.95    -0.07   -3066.96    -0.10
    11   3.1483   9107.21    -0.18   -3030.76    -0.03
    12   3.1700   8766.80     0.20   -2877.68    -0.01
    13   4.0654  15313.89     0.13   -4580.89     0.00
    14   4.1396  13626.93     0.01   -4264.28     0.11
    15   4.1420  13581.45     0.02   -4248.90     0.03
    16   4.1694  13120.45     0.06   -4054.25    -0.04
    17   4.1803  12967.55    -0.07   -3967.91     0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15TP454    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        67.598    67.767    67.431
ecceobj         0.587     0.589     0.586
incobj         24.118    24.118    24.119
qmin           26.146    27.106    25.364
qmax          110.192   107.657   110.730
amean          65.521    65.433    63.680
amin           63.061    62.972    61.378
amax           68.665    67.767    68.631
emean           0.588     0.578     0.585
emin            0.569     0.561     0.552
emax            0.605     0.592     0.614
imean          21.461    22.811    20.314
imin           20.520    22.652    18.755
imax           22.899    22.975    22.941
excite_mean     0.692     0.696     0.680
fracstop        0.233     0.008     0.327
cjmean          2.681     2.685     2.686

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       185.9     328.2     172.6
kozaiamp        179.9       1.4     179.9