Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15SZ49

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15SZ49    
# Created Sat Nov 27 02:13:38 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     22 observations of     22
# Arc:   4.17y
# First observation: 2014/09/30
#  Last observation: 2018/12/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000151   0.028557   0.000058  -0.006934   0.027177   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     9.63 DOF:     38 RMS:  0.12
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.35    0.25
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.665218E-05  2.837525E-02 -4.452653E-06 -6.877135E-03  2.673647E-02 -1.354065E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  7.1926E-13 -5.9596E-13 -1.0610E-13  1.2482E-13 -2.2370E-13 -4.0521E-12
 -5.9596E-13  6.8559E-13  1.3579E-13 -1.6391E-13  3.6470E-13  5.2501E-12
 -1.0610E-13  1.3579E-13  3.7403E-13 -1.5007E-13  6.2302E-14  1.1451E-12
  1.2482E-13 -1.6391E-13 -1.5007E-13  8.9766E-14 -8.8644E-14 -1.3579E-12
 -2.2370E-13  3.6470E-13  6.2302E-14 -8.8644E-14  4.2060E-13  2.6160E-12
 -4.0521E-12  5.2501E-12  1.1451E-12 -1.3579E-12  2.6160E-12  4.3897E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -24.686767   20.593030    0.240700   -0.406885   -0.885560  2456930.753968
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456930.5000  =  2014/09/30
Mean Anomaly:          343.65750 +/-     0.059
Argument of Peri:      264.94187 +/-     0.086
Long of Asc Node:      141.28056 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            27.55387 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.16735137 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     45.45766217 +/-    0.0043
Time of Perihelion: 2462012.3880 +/-      18.3
Perihelion:          37.85026003 +/-    0.0059
Aphelion:            53.06506432 +/-    0.0069
Period (y)              306.4918 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           32.80646710 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Y           12.07235249 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z          -15.62144466 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00141988 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00256761 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00058184 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.28884317 +/-    0.0007
Geocenter to KBO     37.40210042 +/-    0.0009
# Hcoef:  7.62

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15SZ49. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15SZ49) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 09  30.25319  01 53 29.190  -14 50 13.36  24.2g 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2015 09  23.26896  02 00 50.035  -14 29 00.13  21.2z 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2015 11  16.17189  01 56 31.385  -14 54 54.21  23.7r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2015 11  16.17326  01 56 31.376  -14 54 54.11  23.5i 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2015 11  16.17464  01 56 31.374  -14 54 54.03  24.2g 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2015 11  16.18021  01 56 31.341  -14 54 54.21  23.7r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2016 08  29.40238  02 08 54.408  -13 53 13.15  23.7r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2016 09  08.30225  02 08 28.958  -14 01 07.96  23.1i 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2016 09  08.30361  02 08 28.957  -14 01 07.89  24.4g 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2016 09  30.24057  02 07 06.642  -14 17 43.58  23.1i 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2016 09  30.24194  02 07 06.614  -14 17 43.42  23.6r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2016 12  07.18676  02 01 51.010  -14 38 11.21  22.3z 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2017 11  01.21650  02 11 21.538  -14 17 38.67  23.0z 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2017 11  27.08309  02 09 18.318  -14 22 18.68  23.0i 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2017 12  14.07451  02 08 15.945  -14 19 51.95  23.2r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2017 12  22.09803  02 07 54.292  -14 17 13.55  24.5g 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2017 12  22.14542  02 07 54.185  -14 17 12.48  23.6r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2017 12  23.13811  02 07 51.911  -14 16 49.13  24.4g 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2018 10  20.32570  02 19 13.445  -13 54 01.59  22.8i 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2018 10  20.32706  02 19 13.436  -13 54 01.62  23.4r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2018 11  29.22351  02 15 58.619  -14 04 29.80  23.4r 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wy      
2018 12  02.13556  02 15 46.520  -14 04 20.85  24.6g 15SZ49    W84  C~55Wz      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.08
     2   0.9802   6390.96     0.08   -1315.79    -0.35
     3   1.1278   2327.27    -0.05   -1280.65    -0.10
     4   1.1278   2327.19    -0.04   -1280.51     0.01
     5   1.1278   2327.19     0.06   -1280.42     0.07
     6   1.1278   2326.68    -0.09   -1280.40    -0.01
     7   1.9142  13727.34     0.02   -2141.56     0.01
     8   1.9413  13195.56    -0.09   -2428.77     0.15
     9   1.9413  13195.57     0.01   -2428.70     0.25
    10   2.0013  11694.82     0.08   -2863.34    -0.28
    11   2.0013  11694.51    -0.12   -2863.03     0.05
    12   2.1874   6988.98     0.01   -2171.17     0.21
    13   3.0882  15106.53    -0.06   -4350.49     0.03
    14   3.1590  13345.37    -0.07   -3884.06    -0.08
    15   3.2055  12570.26     0.21   -3384.88     0.03
    16   3.2275  12344.18     0.01   -3113.17     0.09
    17   3.2276  12343.18     0.09   -3111.56     0.02
    18   3.2303  12322.12     0.02   -3076.86    -0.04
    19   4.0550  22014.12     0.07   -5865.35     0.03
    20   4.0550  22013.99     0.04   -5865.32     0.05
    21   4.1642  19139.47     0.05   -5270.80     0.01
    22   4.1722  18980.88    -0.24   -5190.30    -0.21

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15SZ49    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        45.871    45.883    45.859
ecceobj         0.174     0.174     0.173
incobj         27.506    27.506    27.506
qmin           37.357    37.198    37.353
qmax           54.028    54.243    54.048
amean          45.494    45.488    45.491
amin           45.106    45.091    45.092
amax           45.950    45.947    45.928
emean           0.160     0.161     0.167
emin            0.144     0.143     0.157
emax            0.177     0.181     0.178
imean          26.422    26.400    26.281
imin           26.063    25.987    26.023
imax           26.814    26.807    26.546
excite_mean     0.473     0.473     0.473
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.836     2.836     2.836

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.1     177.6     181.0
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     180.0