Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RY345

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RY345   
# Created Mon Dec  6 02:13:31 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     13 observations of     13
# Arc:   3.89y
# First observation: 2015/01/13
#  Last observation: 2018/12/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000210   0.022283   0.000178   0.002079   0.024282   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.49 DOF:     20 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.19    0.25
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.424775E-05  2.176593E-02  1.851412E-06  2.030585E-03  2.340248E-02 -9.130930E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  9.6244E-13 -8.2304E-13 -1.5503E-13  1.1786E-14 -4.1635E-13 -6.7493E-12
 -8.2304E-13  1.1138E-12  1.6698E-14 -3.0501E-14  1.9597E-13  9.9492E-12
 -1.5503E-13  1.6698E-14  4.5316E-13 -1.2937E-13  2.4208E-13  2.6254E-13
  1.1786E-14 -3.0501E-14 -1.2937E-13  8.3794E-14  8.3716E-15 -2.8824E-13
 -4.1635E-13  1.9597E-13  2.4208E-13  8.3716E-15  5.1173E-13  2.0920E-12
 -6.7493E-12  9.9492E-12  2.6254E-13 -2.8824E-13  2.0920E-12  9.6068E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -34.747832   10.270264   -0.960498    0.115848    0.166655  2457035.589248
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457030.5000  =  2015/01/08
Mean Anomaly:          200.32602 +/-     0.347
Argument of Peri:       80.79991 +/-     0.346
Long of Asc Node:       91.14348 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            35.36889 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.06430570 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     40.13437483 +/-    0.0045
Time of Perihelion: 2498221.7378 +/-      89.2
Perihelion:          37.55350561 +/-    0.0087
Aphelion:            42.71524405 +/-    0.0090
Period (y)              254.2629 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           34.17385992 +/-    0.0010
Ecliptic Y            7.17019471 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z          -24.35492582 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00041104 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00250877 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00025618 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   42.57260628 +/-    0.0009
Geocenter to KBO     42.73051781 +/-    0.0013
# Hcoef:  7.26

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RY345. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RY345) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 01  13.08847  01 36 16.433  -27 41 17.66  23.4i 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2015 09  13.32593  01 48 34.410  -27 13 16.22  24.4r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2015 10  17.26003  01 45 55.832  -27 32 19.51  23.5r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2015 11  05.20624  01 44 18.316  -27 36 04.77  22.9r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2015 11  06.24157  01 44 13.165  -27 36 07.14  24.0g 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2015 12  03.12917  01 42 15.682  -27 30 44.54  23.9r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2016 09  30.38118  01 52 06.112  -26 42 59.78  23.5i 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2016 10  02.30283  01 51 56.952  -26 44 04.61  22.9g 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2016 10  05.25715  01 51 42.643  -26 45 38.65  23.9g 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2016 11  04.15484  01 49 09.904  -26 54 37.68  23.7r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2017 11  24.22538  01 52 23.305  -26 10 52.71  23.8r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2018 09  19.34728  02 02 24.496  -25 09 43.14  23.9r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      
2018 12  02.11752  01 56 35.160  -25 26 11.23  23.2r 15RY345   W84  C~55Wr      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.10
     2   0.6659   9525.68     0.10   -2954.28    -0.01
     3   0.7589   7120.05    -0.05   -2992.35    -0.12
     4   0.8107   5862.78    -0.15   -2598.20     0.25
     5   0.8136   5800.72     0.01   -2569.03    -0.01
     6   0.8872   4554.87    -0.07   -1570.86     0.10
     7   1.7147  12886.77    -0.01   -2670.98     0.01
     8   1.7200  12747.43    -0.19   -2670.47    -0.08
     9   1.7280  12533.23     0.25   -2663.38    -0.12
    10   1.8099  10467.18    -0.07   -2183.26     0.06
    11   2.8642  14001.05     0.15   -1075.67     0.01
    12   3.6831  22966.50    -0.00   -1750.80     0.16
    13   3.8851  18292.76    -0.07    -324.02    -0.15

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RY345    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        40.462    40.477    40.448
ecceobj         0.055     0.055     0.056
incobj         35.381    35.381    35.381
qmin           37.287    37.309    37.293
qmax           43.420    43.453    43.392
amean          40.270    40.285    40.246
amin           39.965    39.988    39.934
amax           40.573    40.606    40.564
emean           0.059     0.059     0.058
emin            0.048     0.048     0.046
emax            0.071     0.071     0.070
imean          33.794    33.794    33.796
imin           33.503    33.494    33.500
imax           34.100    34.101    34.098
excite_mean     0.559     0.559     0.559
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.667     2.667     2.667

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       188.1     185.6     185.5
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     179.9