Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RY280

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RY280   
# Created Mon Dec  6 02:13:31 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     35 observations of     35
# Arc:   5.14y
# First observation: 2015/06/23
#  Last observation: 2020/08/12
# Chi-squared of fit:    10.69 DOF:     64 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.29    0.33
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.536503E-05  2.314037E-02  4.791359E-06  6.958456E-03  2.381479E-02 -1.878471E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.4020E-13 -1.1873E-14 -6.2876E-15  3.9798E-15  9.3401E-14  1.1891E-13
 -1.1873E-14  2.4766E-13 -4.0642E-14  7.2468E-14  1.6830E-13  2.0476E-12
 -6.2876E-15 -4.0642E-14  7.2711E-14 -3.9898E-14 -3.5143E-14 -3.7853E-13
  3.9798E-15  7.2468E-14 -3.9898E-14  5.2267E-14  5.4656E-14  6.7668E-13
  9.3401E-14  1.6830E-13 -3.5143E-14  5.4656E-14  2.2012E-13  1.5514E-12
  1.1891E-13  2.0476E-12 -3.7853E-13  6.7668E-13  1.5514E-12  1.9118E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    3.087938    9.981195    1.005811   -0.007766    0.145654  2457197.024748
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457196.5000  =  2015/06/23
Mean Anomaly:          318.69477 +/-     0.035
Argument of Peri:       63.77751 +/-     0.052
Long of Asc Node:      358.50786 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            17.16053 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.13825147 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     46.20121826 +/-    0.0038
Time of Perihelion: 2470357.2638 +/-      16.7
Perihelion:          39.81383184 +/-    0.0080
Aphelion:            52.58860467 +/-    0.0085
Period (y)              314.0424 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           41.32227305 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Y            6.25208288 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z            2.26224262 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00071838 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00256897 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00078724 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   41.85382011 +/-    0.0008
Geocenter to KBO     41.99077510 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  7.58

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RY280. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RY280) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 06  23.52397  00 31 48.360  +06 47 31.77  24.1r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 07  19.58736  00 31 54.368  +06 52 10.02  23.8r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 08  13.48399  00 31 07.388  +06 50 48.30  23.6r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 08  13.53744  00 31 07.244  +06 50 47.77  23.9r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 08  19.54662  00 30 49.077  +06 49 40.07  23.6r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 08  19.58802  00 30 48.916  +06 49 39.65  23.9r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 08  19.61668  00 30 48.806  +06 49 39.23  23.9r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 08  20.42114  00 30 46.230  +06 49 28.78  24.0r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 08  20.47055  00 30 46.060  +06 49 28.15  23.8r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 09  07.56844  00 29 38.040  +06 44 24.04        15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 09  09.39585  00 29 30.354  +06 43 46.68  23.7r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 09  09.43729  00 29 30.176  +06 43 45.81  23.8r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 09  09.47825  00 29 29.999  +06 43 44.93  23.8r 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 09  10.50253  00 29 25.630  +06 43 23.53  24.0w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 09  18.46210  00 28 50.621  +06 40 26.89  24.1w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 10  09.31945  00 27 14.716  +06 31 49.42  23.9w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 11  10.44543  00 25 03.574  +06 18 58.71  24.4w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 11  10.47307  00 25 03.442  +06 18 58.03  24.2w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 11  15.26832  00 24 48.301  +06 17 23.89  24.1w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2015 12  08.24411  00 23 59.465  +06 12 06.23  23.8w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 09  05.59522  00 34 06.110  +07 39 36.11  24.0w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 09  06.54431  00 34 02.210  +07 39 17.91  23.9w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 09  06.58642  00 34 02.031  +07 39 17.11  24.1w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 09  27.50093  00 32 29.026  +07 31 29.02  23.8w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 10  30.35674  00 30 02.657  +07 17 38.34  23.8w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 11  03.31592  00 29 47.321  +07 16 05.11  23.9w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 11  03.36828  00 29 47.122  +07 16 04.00  23.9w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 11  03.37989  00 29 47.076  +07 16 03.76  24.1w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 11  03.43780  00 29 46.848  +07 16 02.27  24.0w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2016 12  25.22839  00 28 09.073  +07 05 00.12  24.1w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2017 01  02.27514  00 28 14.822  +07 05 22.84  24.0w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2017 01  29.23654  00 29 16.336  +07 11 17.61  23.3w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2017 01  30.22500  00 29 19.748  +07 11 38.39  24.1w 15RY280   568  C~2nvs      
2020 08  12.377560 00 53 22.723  +11 23 16.59  23.7G 15RY280   G37  C~4463      
2020 08  12.448060 00 53 22.549  +11 23 16.21        15RY280   G37  C~4463      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.03
     2   0.0714      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.01
     3   0.1395      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.17
     4   0.1397      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.16
     5   0.1561      0.00     0.30       0.00    -0.01
     6   0.1562      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.09
     7   0.1563      0.00    -0.29       0.00     0.04
     8   0.1585      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.06
     9   0.1586      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.05
    10   0.2082      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.03
    11   0.2132      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.01
    12   0.2133      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.02
    13   0.2134      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.05
    14   0.2162      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.01
    15   0.2380      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.04
    16   0.2951      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.03
    17   0.3831      0.00     0.33       0.00     0.03
    18   0.3832      0.00    -0.26       0.00    -0.08
    19   0.3963      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.01
    20   0.4592      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.02
    21   1.2048      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.00
    22   1.2074      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.04
    23   1.2076      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.06
    24   1.2648      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.02
    25   1.3548      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.17
    26   1.3656      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.02
    27   1.3658      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.07
    28   1.3658      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.10
    29   1.3660      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.05
    30   1.5077      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.01
    31   1.5298      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.00
    32   1.6036      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.14
    33   1.6063      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.23
    34   5.1385      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.08
    35   5.1387      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RY280    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        46.691    46.691    46.691
ecceobj         0.144     0.144     0.144
incobj         17.078    17.078    17.078
qmin           39.285    39.289    39.287
qmax           53.769    53.838    53.776
amean          46.392    46.392    46.392
amin           46.013    45.992    46.010
amax           46.819    46.817    46.806
emean           0.137     0.137     0.137
emin            0.125     0.125     0.125
emax            0.150     0.150     0.150
imean          17.559    17.559    17.559
imin           17.174    17.175    17.173
imax           17.809    17.806    17.812
excite_mean     0.331     0.331     0.331
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.993     2.993     2.993

libcent 0      -180.0     177.5    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0     175.5    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       173.8     173.8     173.7
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     180.0