Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RW245

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RW245   
# Created Tue Dec  7 02:13:33 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     49 observations of     51
# Arc:   4.11y
# First observation: 2013/10/13
#  Last observation: 2017/11/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.001055   0.057656  -0.000286   0.013618   0.041008   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    18.16 DOF:     92 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.30    0.29
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.397715E-05  5.633790E-02  6.087330E-06  1.329725E-02  3.874698E-02 -5.611370E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3517E-13 -1.9214E-13  2.4729E-14 -3.3880E-14 -3.0396E-14 -6.1919E-13
 -1.9214E-13  2.2584E-13 -3.5590E-14  4.8753E-14  4.1363E-14  8.9117E-13
  2.4729E-14 -3.5590E-14  1.4483E-13 -6.1774E-14 -6.3360E-15 -1.5877E-13
 -3.3880E-14  4.8753E-14 -6.1774E-14  3.7710E-14  9.1853E-15  2.1739E-13
 -3.0396E-14  4.1363E-14 -6.3360E-15  9.1853E-15  1.4905E-13  1.5692E-13
 -6.1919E-13  8.9117E-13 -1.5877E-13  2.1739E-13  1.5692E-13  3.9759E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.221348    4.834860   -0.253848    0.020671   -0.964365  2456578.592190
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456570.5000  =  2013/10/05
Mean Anomaly:          356.16538 +/-     0.002
Argument of Peri:       19.81916 +/-     0.006
Long of Asc Node:        0.40053 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            13.31087 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.53312048 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     56.69367740 +/-    0.0058
Time of Perihelion: 2458231.3097 +/-       0.6
Perihelion:          26.46911669 +/-    0.0037
Aphelion:            86.91823811 +/-    0.0093
Period (y)              426.8843 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           26.64999251 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y            2.51203724 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            0.55023311 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00075664 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00393011 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00093105 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   26.77377800 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     25.80845970 +/-    0.0003
# Hcoef:  8.72

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RW245. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RW245) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 10  13.091412 00 15 48.61   +03 02 32.6   22.3z 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2013 10  13.105868 00 15 48.53   +03 02 32.3   22.5i 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2013 10  28.065961 00 14 19.55   +02 54 39.1   23.2r 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2013 11  22.064873 00 12 33.17   +02 45 35.4   22.6i 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2013 11  22.123819 00 12 33.00   +02 45 34.9   22.4z 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2014 09  20.48350  00 29 04.355  +05 14 54.72  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 09  20.49507  00 29 04.277  +05 14 54.61  22.7G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 09  20.50657  00 29 04.221  +05 14 53.83  23.2G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 09  20.51807  00 29 04.127  +05 14 53.77  23.2G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2014 10  28.173542 00 25 00.85   +04 53 30.2   23.7g 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2014 10  28.174919 00 25 00.85   +04 53 30.0   23.1i 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2014 10  29.178785 00 24 55.15   +04 52 59.0   23.2r 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2014 11  13.046019 00 23 40.74   +04 46 14.5   23.0r 15RW245   W84  C~352k      
2014 11  19.32091  00 23 15.943  +04 44 01.65  23.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 09  05.58200  00 41 31.384  +07 21 22.24  22.7G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 09  07.58494  00 41 19.838  +07 20 31.93  22.1w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.41265  00 41 09.091  +07 19 44.27  22.9r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.45371  00 41 08.847  +07 19 43.19  22.9r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  09.49464  00 41 08.599  +07 19 42.07  23.1r 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  10.51893  00 41 02.458  +07 19 14.52  22.3w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 09  18.48318  00 40 12.742  +07 15 23.35  22.6w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  08.37093  00 37 59.937  +07 04 17.19  22.4w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  08.42353  00 37 59.574  +07 04 15.33  23.1w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  09.34050  00 37 53.403  +07 03 42.88  23.0w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 10  12.40518  00 37 32.849  +07 01 54.81  23.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 10  13.39807  00 37 26.214  +07 01 19.75  23.4G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 10  23.32398  00 36 21.915  +06 55 33.86  22.8G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  01.31764  00 35 28.024  +06 50 38.14  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.31807  00 35 22.386  +06 50 06.07  22.3G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.32980  00 35 22.298  +06 50 06.06  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.34169  00 35 22.230  +06 50 05.65  23.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  02.35354  00 35 22.162  +06 50 05.12  22.8G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2015 11  10.46704  00 34 39.393  +06 46 05.79  22.9w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2015 12  08.26533  00 33 06.815  +06 37 20.74  22.7w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 01  01.32759  00 33 10.444  +06 38 05.75  23.4w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 01  02.27875  00 33 12.313  +06 38 18.40  22.9w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  05.57903  00 52 28.055  +09 19 21.82        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  06.52814  00 52 22.743  +09 19 00.63        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  06.57023  00 52 22.499  +09 18 59.72        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 09  12.55386  00 51 47.462  +09 16 33.97  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2016 09  27.48394  00 50 11.393  +09 09 13.83  23.0w 15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 10  27.29136  00 46 52.499  +08 52 01.99        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 10  27.35723  00 46 52.083  +08 51 59.63        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 11  04.30636  00 46 04.740  +08 47 35.34        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 11  04.36545  00 46 04.399  +08 47 33.49        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2016 12  29.29848  00 43 43.257  +08 33 12.81        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2017 01  02.33380  00 43 49.128  +08 33 44.71        15RW245   568  C~2Gds      
2017 10  22.45304  00 58 35.120  +10 53 25.25  22.9G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2017 10  22.46468  00 58 35.056  +10 53 25.00  22.6G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2017 10  22.47631  00 58 34.993  +10 53 24.34  22.5G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      
2017 11  22.22934  00 55 40.640  +10 36 51.02  23.0G 15RW245   F51  C~2rYP      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.14
     2   0.0000     -1.22     0.06       0.20    -0.04
     3   0.0410  -1412.45     0.02      95.17     0.23
     4   0.1094  -3091.22    -0.00     229.63    -0.04
     5   0.1096  -3093.76     0.18     230.18     0.19
     6   0.9374  14096.40    -0.08    2595.66    -0.07
     7   0.9375  14095.28     0.02    2596.02     0.19
     8   0.9375  14094.20     0.15    2595.63    -0.30
     9   0.9375  14092.88     0.04    2596.13     0.09
    10   1.0406  10232.51    -0.12    2846.39     0.14
    11   1.0406  10232.43    -0.07    2846.21    -0.05
    12   1.0434  10141.69    -0.01    2851.30    -0.07
    13   1.0841   8957.50    -0.05    2918.17    -0.04
    14   1.1012   8563.75 (  -0.07)   2942.38 (   0.49)
    15   1.8959  27455.65     0.29    5260.07    -0.06
    16   1.9014  27274.66     0.02    5280.16    -0.04
    17   1.9064  27105.89    -0.03    5298.09     0.07
    18   1.9065  27102.06     0.05    5298.50     0.05
    19   1.9066  27098.16     0.06    5298.90     0.01
    20   1.9095  27001.62     0.00    5308.86     0.04
    21   1.9313  26217.18    -0.04    5382.13     0.02
    22   1.9857  24105.68    -0.08    5534.27    -0.02
    23   1.9859  24099.90    -0.10    5534.65    -0.02
    24   1.9884  24001.30    -0.15    5540.39    -0.14
    25   1.9968  23672.97     0.16    5559.56    -0.12
    26   1.9995  23566.94    -0.06    5565.60    -0.04
    27   2.0266  22537.49     0.17    5618.77    -0.15
    28   2.0513  21673.09 (   0.11)   5658.41 (   0.47)
    29   2.0540  21582.25     0.05    5661.53    -0.23
    30   2.0540  21581.03    -0.09    5662.03     0.22
    31   2.0541  21579.92    -0.10    5662.05     0.18
    32   2.0541  21578.77    -0.16    5661.95     0.03
    33   2.0763  20891.44    -0.04    5689.44     0.05
    34   2.1524  19402.16     0.03    5743.38    -0.08
    35   2.2183  19470.18    -0.04    5763.86    -0.03
    36   2.2209  19501.04     0.05    5764.65     0.05
    37   2.8980  39499.00    -0.02    8120.75    -0.02
    38   2.9006  39415.25    -0.03    8131.01    -0.03
    39   2.9007  39411.43    -0.03    8131.54     0.02
    40   2.9171  38856.94     0.11    8193.70     0.02
    41   2.9580  37322.98    -0.07    8326.94     0.01
    42   3.0396  34110.42    -0.05    8494.39     0.04
    43   3.0397  34103.64    -0.07    8494.56    -0.08
    44   3.0615  33333.65     0.03    8517.95     0.03
    45   3.0617  33328.13     0.07    8518.17     0.06
    46   3.2121  31008.24     0.14    8522.35    -0.07
    47   3.2231  31103.05     0.12    8518.45     0.03
    48   4.0256  46991.25    -0.30   11404.80     0.09
    49   4.0257  46990.23    -0.02   11404.92     0.16
    50   4.0257  46989.06     0.11   11404.64    -0.16
    51   4.1099  44096.60     0.12   11437.10     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RW245    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        57.167    57.184    57.150
ecceobj         0.537     0.537     0.537
incobj         13.281    13.281    13.281
qmin           26.214    26.163    26.286
qmax           94.045    89.603    93.697
amean          57.986    56.793    57.606
amin           55.665    55.537    51.131
amax           60.646    58.418    60.609
emean           0.535     0.526     0.515
emin            0.517     0.510     0.428
emax            0.551     0.543     0.549
imean          14.661    14.773    16.984
imin           13.748    13.741    13.763
imax           15.328    15.785    20.582
excite_mean     0.592     0.585     0.593
fracstop        0.026     0.022     0.181
cjmean          2.781     2.783     2.788

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        26.5      27.1      79.6
kozaiamp          7.9       7.8      70.0