Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RL281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RL281   
# Created Tue Dec  7 02:13:38 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     25 observations of     25
# Arc:   2.44y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
#  Last observation: 2017/12/23
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000105   0.024229  -0.000037  -0.011169   0.025997   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     8.54 DOF:     44 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.23    0.36
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.458624E-05  2.393402E-02 -6.764845E-06 -1.111835E-02  2.580196E-02  1.465760E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3218E-13  4.5079E-14  2.0496E-14 -1.0749E-13  2.1943E-13  5.1872E-12
  4.5079E-14  3.4972E-13  4.6746E-14 -2.2985E-13  3.1037E-13  1.1036E-11
  2.0496E-14  4.6746E-14  1.3822E-13 -1.7574E-13  6.2642E-14  3.8680E-12
 -1.0749E-13 -2.2985E-13 -1.7574E-13  5.2097E-13 -3.1231E-13 -1.8160E-11
  2.1943E-13  3.1037E-13  6.2642E-14 -3.1231E-13  4.6924E-13  1.5012E-11
  5.1872E-12  1.1036E-11  3.8680E-12 -1.8160E-11  1.5012E-11  8.6857E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.964313   12.140919    1.003191    0.005944   -0.170358  2457218.063999
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457210.5000  =  2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly:           43.20094 +/-     0.868
Argument of Peri:      128.54834 +/-     0.991
Long of Asc Node:      194.87122 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            24.95675 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.04387114 +/-    0.0009
Semi-Major Axis:     40.18293435 +/-    0.0046
Time of Perihelion: 2446045.6835 +/-     224.4
Perihelion:          38.42006311 +/-    0.0351
Aphelion:            41.94580559 +/-    0.0351
Period (y)              254.7245 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           38.24168476 +/-    0.0010
Ecliptic Y            7.20177347 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z            1.32825538 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00034492 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00251775 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00117368 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.93656709 +/-    0.0010
Geocenter to KBO     38.75674490 +/-    0.0010
# Hcoef:  8.97

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RL281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RL281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 07  14.56321  00 41 34.503  +06 36 25.22  24.8r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 07  19.54121  00 41 33.299  +06 36 00.08  25.0r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 08  20.43431  00 40 34.493  +06 27 39.29  24.5r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 08  20.48358  00 40 34.343  +06 27 37.98  24.6r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  09.40852  00 39 20.523  +06 18 08.50  25.1r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  09.44963  00 39 20.349  +06 18 07.17  25.4r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  09.49055  00 39 20.180  +06 18 05.84  24.8r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  10.51481  00 39 15.831  +06 17 32.48  25.2w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  18.47788  00 38 40.727  +06 13 02.52  24.8w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 10  08.36567  00 37 07.519  +06 00 57.10  25.0w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 10  08.41827  00 37 07.261  +06 00 55.19  25.5w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 10  09.33525  00 37 02.932  +06 00 20.96  25.0w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 11  10.46169  00 34 46.380  +05 41 29.04  24.8w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 12  08.25986  00 33 38.445  +05 29 55.78  25.1w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 01  01.26556  00 33 36.124  +05 25 47.60  25.3w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  05.59118  00 45 43.933  +06 16 39.89  24.8w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  06.54027  00 45 40.113  +06 16 10.09  24.8w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  06.58238  00 45 39.944  +06 16 08.68  24.9w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  27.49689  00 44 07.136  +06 04 10.70  25.1w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 11  02.39575  00 41 23.880  +05 42 32.62  24.5r 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 11  04.30057  00 41 16.336  +05 41 29.39  24.8w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 11  04.35961  00 41 16.098  +05 41 27.37  25.5w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 12  29.28720  00 39 36.291  +05 23 09.22  25.6w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 01  02.32226  00 39 39.945  +05 22 57.82  25.4w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 12  23.29251  00 45 36.803  +05 20 46.34  24.9w 15RL281   568  C~2nvt      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.01
     2   0.0136    -26.35    -0.06     -16.11     0.12
     3   0.1009  -1028.86    -0.02    -133.60     0.17
     4   0.1011  -1031.43     0.02    -133.93     0.02
     5   0.1556  -2267.14    -0.12    -226.18     0.05
     6   0.1557  -2270.04    -0.08    -226.38     0.03
     7   0.1559  -2272.88     0.02    -226.61    -0.02
     8   0.1587  -2345.62     0.04    -231.85    -0.02
     9   0.1805  -2933.11     0.06    -274.61    -0.23
    10   0.2349  -4497.04     0.09    -395.18    -0.09
    11   0.2351  -4501.33     0.05    -395.42    -0.02
    12   0.2376  -4574.20    -0.03    -401.49     0.03
    13   0.3255  -6894.79     0.36    -639.34     0.08
    14   0.4016  -8101.85    -0.18    -876.37     0.02
    15   0.4674  -8231.91    -0.19   -1090.89    -0.17
    16   1.1472   2960.02    -0.05   -2543.44     0.06
    17   1.1498   2895.93    -0.03   -2548.69    -0.01
    18   1.1499   2893.06     0.01   -2549.01    -0.11
    19   1.2072   1338.30     0.01   -2670.28     0.12
    20   1.3055  -1411.52     0.12   -2912.75     0.11
    21   1.3107  -1539.91     0.02   -2926.85    -0.00
    22   1.3109  -1543.97    -0.04   -2927.32    -0.07
    23   1.4613  -3345.79    -0.22   -3353.82    -0.04
    24   1.4723  -3300.05     0.16   -3385.72    -0.05
    25   2.4442   1555.01     0.01   -5591.69     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RL281    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        40.534    40.554    40.514
ecceobj         0.051     0.053     0.049
incobj         24.844    24.845    24.843
qmin           37.900    37.846    37.975
qmax           42.916    43.096    42.851
amean          40.349    40.369    40.330
amin           40.043    40.057    40.033
amax           40.656    40.685    40.637
emean           0.045     0.047     0.043
emin            0.034     0.036     0.033
emax            0.056     0.059     0.055
imean          25.259    25.261    25.258
imin           24.802    24.819    24.801
imax           25.687    25.666    25.680
excite_mean     0.429     0.429     0.429
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.837     2.837     2.837

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       177.7     178.0     178.0
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9