Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15RJ281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15RJ281   
# Created Mon Dec  6 02:13:31 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     33 observations of     33
# Arc:   2.19y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
#  Last observation: 2017/09/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000130   0.015189   0.000012   0.002800   0.019144   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    16.98 DOF:     60 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.32    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.261008E-05  1.499447E-02  2.857322E-06  2.796102E-03  1.910218E-02  1.955065E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.4740E-13  1.9446E-14 -1.3914E-14  3.5935E-14  2.2666E-13  6.1639E-12
  1.9446E-14  2.1029E-13 -1.5125E-14  4.3284E-14  2.1165E-13  7.5287E-12
 -1.3914E-14 -1.5125E-14  1.2261E-13 -9.5381E-14 -2.8827E-14 -1.1645E-12
  3.5935E-14  4.3284E-14 -9.5381E-14  1.2362E-13  7.9603E-14  3.6379E-12
  2.2666E-13  2.1165E-13 -2.8827E-14  7.9603E-14  4.2721E-13  1.3782E-11
  6.1639E-12  7.5287E-12 -1.1645E-12  3.6379E-12  1.3782E-11  6.3958E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    2.488068   11.896910    1.002456    0.007687   -0.174563  2457218.063999
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457210.5000  =  2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly:          137.17013 +/-     0.401
Argument of Peri:      224.23149 +/-     0.391
Long of Asc Node:      357.81112 +/-     0.002
Inclination:            10.90300 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.17751801 +/-    0.0007
Semi-Major Axis:     45.98739486 +/-    0.0118
Time of Perihelion: 2413808.1064 +/-     125.8
Perihelion:          37.82380414 +/-    0.0341
Aphelion:            54.15098558 +/-    0.0355
Period (y)              311.8648 +/-      0.12
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           51.55130785 +/-    0.0018
Ecliptic Y            9.83731913 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z            2.27278656 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00018841 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00215078 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00041260 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   52.53071242 +/-    0.0017
Geocenter to KBO     52.35003859 +/-    0.0018
# Hcoef:  7.52

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RJ281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RJ281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 07  14.56321  00 39 50.682  +06 59 36.06  24.8r 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 08  19.62908  00 38 57.719  +06 56 43.18  24.3r 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 08  20.48358  00 38 55.540  +06 56 32.35  25.1r 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  07.58083  00 38 01.647  +06 51 55.22  24.9w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  09.40852  00 37 55.518  +06 51 22.11  24.8r 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  09.44963  00 37 55.381  +06 51 21.39  24.7r 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  09.49055  00 37 55.240  +06 51 20.63  24.6r 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  10.51481  00 37 51.761  +06 51 01.62  25.0w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 09  18.47788  00 37 23.721  +06 48 26.11  25.1w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 10  08.36567  00 36 09.775  +06 41 16.01  25.2w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 10  08.41827  00 36 09.569  +06 41 14.72  24.6w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 10  09.33525  00 36 06.132  +06 40 54.32  24.8w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 11  10.46169  00 34 17.154  +06 29 36.32  23.9w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2015 12  08.25986  00 33 19.894  +06 23 05.76  24.4w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 01  02.27354  00 33 12.720  +06 21 41.72  24.8w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  05.49045  00 41 03.715  +07 21 40.58  25.1w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  05.50664  00 41 03.654  +07 21 40.35  25.6w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  06.44465  00 41 00.601  +07 21 24.16  25.0w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  06.46082  00 41 00.535  +07 21 23.74  25.1w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  06.48592  00 41 00.464  +07 21 23.55  25.0w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  06.50211  00 41 00.415  +07 21 23.22  25.4w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 09  26.44346  00 39 49.666  +07 14 50.08  24.2w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 11  03.41462  00 37 33.382  +07 01 03.58  24.8w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 11  04.33644  00 37 30.491  +07 00 45.28        15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 12  29.25523  00 36 05.708  +06 50 38.40  25.3w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2016 12  29.27436  00 36 05.714  +06 50 38.55  25.2w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 01  03.22553  00 36 08.266  +06 50 45.54  25.3w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 01  03.24627  00 36 08.265  +06 50 45.73  25.3w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 01  27.27188  00 36 45.560  +06 54 03.10  23.9w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 01  28.26808  00 36 47.938  +06 54 16.57  25.3w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 01  30.23419  00 36 52.848  +06 54 45.35  25.0w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 09  16.50931  00 43 24.500  +07 47 34.75  24.9w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      
2017 09  22.46275  00 43 03.025  +07 45 35.25  25.1w 15RJ281   568  C~2nvt      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.11
     2   0.0987   -793.17     0.32     150.39     0.23
     3   0.1011   -827.27     0.08     153.17    -0.10
     4   0.1506  -1674.19    -0.18     213.57    -0.16
     5   0.1556  -1771.14    -0.21     219.00    -0.00
     6   0.1557  -1773.30    -0.13     219.14     0.00
     7   0.1559  -1775.53    -0.12     219.27    -0.00
     8   0.1587  -1830.64    -0.01     222.15    -0.05
     9   0.1805  -2275.81     0.08     243.39     0.17
    10   0.2349  -3457.93     0.13     281.60    -0.03
    11   0.2351  -3461.26     0.01     281.63    -0.10
    12   0.2376  -3516.37    -0.11     283.05     0.08
    13   0.3255  -5276.83     0.07     300.41     0.26
    14   0.4016  -6215.91     0.03     278.72     0.00
    15   0.4701  -6347.49     0.01     243.78    -0.13
    16   1.1470   1519.03    -0.07     792.71    -0.16
    17   1.1470   1518.11    -0.15     792.86    -0.07
    18   1.1496   1469.98     0.09     795.74    -0.05
    19   1.1496   1468.91    -0.13     795.74    -0.11
    20   1.1497   1467.86     0.15     795.98     0.04
    21   1.1497   1467.06     0.21     795.96    -0.03
    22   1.2043    344.53     0.02     846.74    -0.06
    23   1.3083  -1845.59     0.18     883.27    -0.13
    24   1.3108  -1892.37     0.00     883.37     0.07
    25   1.4612  -3292.03     0.06     822.45    -0.04
    26   1.4612  -3291.89     0.13     822.56     0.09
    27   1.4748  -3254.19     0.09     814.01    -0.11
    28   1.4748  -3254.13    -0.05     814.19     0.10
    29   1.5406  -2665.75     0.01     776.87     0.25
    30   1.5433  -2627.89    -0.32     775.31     0.03
    31   1.5487  -2549.34    -0.15     772.99     0.27
    32   2.1764   4053.90    -0.08    1405.03    -0.05
    33   2.1927   3713.29     0.07    1419.60    -0.08

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15RJ281    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        46.399    46.434    46.365
ecceobj         0.170     0.172     0.168
incobj         10.839    10.839    10.839
qmin           37.448    37.290    37.435
qmax           55.402    55.547    55.320
amean          46.189    46.230    46.159
amin           45.793    45.831    45.755
amax           46.676    46.692    46.615
emean           0.174     0.176     0.172
emin            0.161     0.163     0.159
emax            0.188     0.191     0.188
imean          11.298    11.289    11.280
imin           10.693    10.711    10.715
imax           11.854    11.849    11.839
excite_mean     0.262     0.263     0.261
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.044     3.043     3.044

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       180.0     179.4     179.4
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9