Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15PL312

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15PL312   
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:28 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     30 observations of     31
# Arc:   4.17y
# First observation: 2014/09/30
#  Last observation: 2018/12/01
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000310   0.027707  -0.000147   0.010791   0.027020   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    19.34 DOF:     54 RMS:  0.14
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.42    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.473884E-05  2.745850E-02  8.210652E-06  1.066146E-02  2.732502E-02 -2.158016E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  6.6978E-13 -6.7926E-13  2.0274E-13 -2.4574E-13 -2.9141E-13 -5.5556E-12
 -6.7926E-13  8.2085E-13 -2.7045E-13  3.2891E-13  3.6467E-13  7.4442E-12
  2.0274E-13 -2.7045E-13  3.3573E-13 -2.2625E-13 -1.2189E-13 -2.6716E-12
 -2.4574E-13  3.2891E-13 -2.2625E-13  2.0600E-13  1.3779E-13  3.2749E-12
 -2.9141E-13  3.6467E-13 -1.2189E-13  1.3779E-13  3.9260E-13  3.0387E-12
 -5.5556E-12  7.4442E-12 -2.6716E-12  3.2749E-12  3.0387E-12  7.4319E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -16.210673   37.213553    0.508972   -0.241389   -0.830881  2456930.782118
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456930.5000  =  2014/09/30
Mean Anomaly:          326.41196 +/-     0.076
Argument of Peri:        5.27965 +/-     0.109
Long of Asc Node:       71.78968 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            26.10485 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.13659178 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     41.91378790 +/-    0.0037
Time of Perihelion: 2466177.8212 +/-      20.9
Perihelion:          36.18870890 +/-    0.0090
Aphelion:            47.63886690 +/-    0.0095
Period (y)              271.3586 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           28.98039366 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y           21.37286678 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z          -10.21639174 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00159637 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00224120 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00108624 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   37.43043295 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     36.59649373 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  8.21

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PL312. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PL312) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 09  30.28134  02 40 23.060  -01 26 23.46  23.6i 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2015 08  15.393889 02 47 17.60   -00 02 00.6   23.5i 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 08  24.361215 02 47 13.25   -00 05 10.1   24.8r 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 08  24.363588 02 47 13.25   -00 05 10.2   23.8i 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 08  24.367593 02 47 13.24   -00 05 10.6   23.3z 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 09  12.310602 02 46 38.28   -00 13 09.2   24.4r 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 09  12.316910 02 46 38.27   -00 13 09.6   23.5z 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 10  16.294670 02 44 22.88   -00 28 40.2   24.8g 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 10  16.296875 02 44 22.87   -00 28 40.1   23.4r 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 10  16.299225 02 44 22.84   -00 28 40.2   23.7i 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 10  16.303206 02 44 22.83   -00 28 40.1   23.7z 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 11  03.178229 02 42 49.31   -00 35 18.4   23.3z 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2015 12  11.18032  02 39 38.986  -00 40 28.84  24.0r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2016 08  26.293206 02 52 20.15   +00 58 05.4   24.4r 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2016 09  24.27915  02 51 09.737  +00 45 52.35  23.7r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2016 09  27.44396  02 50 57.75   +00 44 26.4   24.8g 15PL312   568  C~2NNK      
2016 09  27.56353  02 50 57.27   +00 44 23.1   24.8g 15PL312   568  C~2NNK      
2016 09  28.45298  02 50 53.77   +00 43 59.0   24.9g 15PL312   568  C~2NNK      
2016 09  28.57265  02 50 53.29   +00 43 55.7   24.9g 15PL312   568  C~2NNK      
2016 09  29.52511  02 50 49.47   +00 43 30.0   24.9g 15PL312   568  C~2NNK      
2016 09  29.58445  02 50 49.22   +00 43 28.4   24.6g 15PL312   568  C~2NNK      
2016 10  05.184826 02 50 25.49   +00 40 58.9   23.3z 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2016 10  27.117662 02 48 37.26   +00 32 03.8   23.1i 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2016 10  27.124282 02 48 37.25   +00 32 04.1   23.1z 15PL312   W84  C~2B02      
2016 10  28.22438  02 48 31.349  +00 31 40.28  23.7r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2016 12  05.19069  02 45 13.842  +00 24 16.28  23.8r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2017 08  27.40776  02 57 30.192  +02 02 16.20  24.1r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2017 09  26.32426  02 56 17.181  +01 50 15.01  23.3r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2017 11  22.17031  02 51 33.668  +01 30 47.76  23.0i 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2017 11  22.17167  02 51 33.669  +01 30 47.65  23.8r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      
2018 12  01.16142  02 56 05.081  +02 35 24.40  23.9r 15PL312   W84  C~4yYA      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.24       0.00    -0.42
     2   0.8737   7505.86    -0.07    2831.24     0.13
     3   0.8982   7383.65    -0.02    2672.07     0.06
     4   0.8982   7383.62    -0.00    2671.98     0.01
     5   0.8983   7383.35    -0.18    2671.65    -0.26
     6   0.9501   6733.33    -0.08    2383.79     0.32
     7   0.9501   6733.06    -0.04    2383.46     0.06
     8   1.0432   4510.09    -0.02    2144.67    -0.02
     9   1.0432   4509.98     0.04    2144.82     0.12
    10   1.0432   4509.52    -0.23    2144.86     0.17
    11   1.0432   4509.41    -0.02    2145.01     0.31
    12   1.0921   3052.20    -0.12    2211.97     0.01
    13   1.1962    245.89     0.18    2822.30     0.02
    14   1.9056  12968.99     0.25    4817.31     0.22
    15   1.9849  11729.98     0.17    4455.34    -0.04
    16   1.9936  11531.53     0.04    4430.67    -0.06
    17   1.9939  11523.63    -0.00    4429.82    -0.12
    18   1.9964  11466.00    -0.05    4423.57    -0.14
    19   1.9967  11458.10     0.03    4422.72    -0.24
    20   1.9993  11395.40     0.06    4416.46    -0.21
    21   1.9995  11391.32     0.01    4416.13    -0.19
    22   2.0148  11005.12     0.05    4386.96     0.24
    23   2.0748   9291.33    -0.06    4393.46     0.02
    24   2.0749   9291.29 (   0.45)   4393.79 (   0.31)
    25   2.0779   9199.59    -0.20    4399.24    -0.08
    26   2.1818   6244.46     0.05    4916.99    -0.04
    27   2.9079  18636.66     0.04    7011.29    -0.06
    28   2.9899  17359.27    -0.02    6670.22     0.03
    29   3.1455  12931.57    -0.01    6905.19     0.17
    30   3.1455  12931.55     0.08    6905.08     0.03
    31   4.1694  18054.55    -0.09    9312.56    -0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15PL312    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        42.244    42.254    42.235
ecceobj         0.140     0.140     0.139
incobj         26.088    26.088    26.088
qmin           35.037    35.009    35.112
qmax           49.144    49.279    49.045
amean          41.936    41.980    41.929
amin           41.574    41.623    41.574
amax           42.325    42.374    42.319
emean           0.144     0.145     0.140
emin            0.127     0.128     0.122
emax            0.162     0.164     0.160
imean          24.485    24.484    24.573
imin           23.969    23.971    24.085
imax           25.017    25.038    25.155
excite_mean     0.439     0.439     0.439
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.844     2.844     2.844

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       177.7     177.7     174.5
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     179.9