Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15PJ311

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15PJ311   
# Created Wed Dec  8 02:13:28 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     46 observations of     46
# Arc:   3.16y
# First observation: 2014/07/27
#  Last observation: 2017/09/22
# Chi-squared of fit:    43.40 DOF:     86 RMS:  0.17
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.55    0.43
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  4.607179E-05  4.796352E-01 -1.296156E-05 -1.391313E-01  1.652151E-01 -6.399987E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  3.6541E-13 -7.5633E-13 -5.9757E-15  6.3809E-14  1.7812E-13 -7.2419E-13
 -7.5633E-13  1.6033E-11  1.7349E-13 -1.8511E-12 -5.2550E-12  2.1072E-11
 -5.9757E-15  1.7349E-13  3.4894E-13 -2.4258E-13 -6.2891E-14  2.3860E-13
  6.3809E-14 -1.8511E-12 -2.4258E-13  7.4769E-13  6.1770E-13 -2.5088E-12
  1.7812E-13 -5.2550E-12 -6.2891E-14  6.1770E-13  4.8420E-12 -9.2626E-12
 -7.2419E-13  2.1072E-11  2.3860E-13 -2.5088E-12 -9.2626E-12  3.0105E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -10.934812  -52.699259    0.055565   -0.192775   -0.998140  2456865.928968
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456866.5000  =  2014/07/28
Mean Anomaly:          356.86899 +/-     0.001
Argument of Peri:      231.31270 +/-     0.000
Long of Asc Node:       97.38074 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            18.55076 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.66507169 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     20.51883786 +/-    0.0000
Time of Perihelion: 2457161.7631 +/-       0.1
Perihelion:           6.87233959 +/-    0.0000
Aphelion:            34.16533613 +/-    0.0000
Period (y)               92.9474 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X            4.17127410 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y           -5.56786339 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z           -1.14817347 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00542147 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00598877 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00206244 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO    7.05120588 +/-    0.0000
Geocenter to KBO      6.05277957 +/-    0.0000
# Hcoef: 13.62

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PJ311. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PJ311) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 07  27.42819  20 51 27.145  -28 59 37.00  21.9G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2014 07  27.44012  20 51 26.894  -28 59 39.14  21.9G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2014 07  27.45201  20 51 26.635  -28 59 41.03  21.8G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2014 07  27.46391  20 51 26.397  -28 59 42.89  22.1G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2015 07  27.55169  23 02 53.587  -25 08 51.58  21.8w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 07  27.56224  23 02 53.474  -25 08 53.85  21.9w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 07  27.57278  23 02 53.376  -25 08 56.30  21.8w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  10.50864  22 59 58.058  -25 57 25.54  21.7w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  10.51831  22 59 57.907  -25 57 27.55  21.8w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  10.52808  22 59 57.770  -25 57 29.67  21.7w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  10.53775  22 59 57.601  -25 57 31.30  21.8w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  11.51310  22 59 42.539  -26 00 50.20  21.8w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  11.52279  22 59 42.369  -26 00 52.06  21.8w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  11.53238  22 59 42.223  -26 00 54.15  22.0w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 08  11.54216  22 59 42.059  -26 00 55.77  21.8w 15PJ311   F51  C~1WXD      
2015 10  15.26312  22 41 41.579  -27 46 11.22  21.7G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2015 10  15.27372  22 41 41.498  -27 46 11.04  21.7G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2015 10  15.28428  22 41 41.417  -27 46 10.39  22.3G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2015 10  15.29485  22 41 41.319  -27 46 09.74  22.0G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2016 08  01.54595  00 51 23.092  -16 16 59.76  22.5G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2016 08  01.55638  00 51 23.087  -16 17 01.51  22.2G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2016 08  01.56686  00 51 23.089  -16 17 03.31  22.4G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r0      
2016 08  01.57728  00 51 23.084  -16 17 04.83  22.3G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 09  25.42689  00 41 07.486  -18 49 32.80  22.0G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 09  25.43694  00 41 07.276  -18 49 34.01  22.3G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 09  25.44704  00 41 07.075  -18 49 35.26  22.0G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 09  25.45708  00 41 06.890  -18 49 36.21  22.1G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.40970  00 36 38.962  -19 12 14.87  22.2G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.41035  00 36 38.927  -19 12 15.22  22.2G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.42073  00 36 38.741  -19 12 15.83  22.2G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.42137  00 36 38.711  -19 12 16.01  22.6G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.43172  00 36 38.520  -19 12 16.42  21.9G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.43236  00 36 38.503  -19 12 16.61  22.3G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.44270  00 36 38.315  -19 12 17.34  21.9G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  09.44334  00 36 38.281  -19 12 17.46  22.7G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  25.34792  00 31 58.563  -19 21 03.29  22.4G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  25.36066  00 31 58.347  -19 21 03.16  22.6G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  25.37344  00 31 58.133  -19 21 03.10  22.5G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 10  25.38620  00 31 57.923  -19 21 03.14  22.1G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 11  05.31028  00 29 25.234  -19 15 37.18  22.5G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 11  05.31838  00 29 25.096  -19 15 36.48  22.3G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2016 11  05.32647  00 29 25.051  -19 15 35.82  22.8G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2017 09  22.46965  02 06 27.000  -08 36 09.26  22.3G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2017 09  22.48207  02 06 26.823  -08 36 10.90  22.8G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2017 09  22.49452  02 06 26.629  -08 36 12.50  22.8G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      
2017 09  22.50693  02 06 26.413  -08 36 14.26  22.5G 15PJ311   F51  C~36r1      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.08
     2   0.0000      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.24
     3   0.0001      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.17
     4   0.0001      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.07
     5   0.9997      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.15
     6   0.9997      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.09
     7   0.9997      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.16
     8   1.0379      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.17
     9   1.0379      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.13
    10   1.0379      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.00
    11   1.0379      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.34
    12   1.0406      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.11
    13   1.0406      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.22
    14   1.0407      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.07
    15   1.0407      0.00    -0.21       0.00     0.43
    16   1.2179      0.00    -0.23       0.00    -0.15
    17   1.2179      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.43
    18   1.2179      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.24
    19   1.2180      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.05
    20   2.0154      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.08
    21   2.0154      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.00
    22   2.0154      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.12
    23   2.0155      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.02
    24   2.1656      0.00     0.20       0.00    -0.06
    25   2.1657      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.02
    26   2.1657      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.02
    27   2.1657      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.27
    28   2.2039      0.00     0.23       0.00     0.13
    29   2.2039      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.17
    30   2.2039      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.07
    31   2.2040      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.20
    32   2.2040      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.10
    33   2.2040      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.05
    34   2.2040      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.07
    35   2.2040      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.15
    36   2.2476      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.06
    37   2.2476      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.14
    38   2.2476      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.15
    39   2.2477      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.06
    40   2.2776      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.26
    41   2.2776      0.00    -0.49       0.00    -0.01
    42   2.2776      0.00     0.36       0.00     0.20
    43   3.1569      0.00     0.23       0.00    -0.04
    44   3.1569      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.04
    45   3.1569      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.00
    46   3.1570      0.00    -0.55       0.00    -0.13

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15PJ311    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        20.560    20.559    20.560
ecceobj         0.668     0.668     0.668
incobj         18.539    18.539    18.539
qmin            6.512     6.822     6.833
qmax           49.216    35.370    35.244
amean          23.477    19.819    20.286
amin           19.384    18.115    19.498
amax           27.972    21.144    21.122
emean           0.710     0.648     0.657
emin            0.643     0.617     0.640
emax            0.759     0.673     0.669
imean          17.507    17.973    17.206
imin           16.988    16.988    16.988
imax           18.226    18.901    17.471
excite_mean     0.771     0.718     0.721
fracstop        0.003     0.001     0.001
cjmean          2.473     2.696     2.665

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       257.1     241.7     236.1
kozaiamp         27.9      11.4       6.4