Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15PD312

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15PD312   
# Created Tue Nov 30 02:13:29 2021
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     65 observations of     65
# Arc:   5.16y
# First observation: 2013/10/04
#  Last observation: 2018/12/03
# Chi-squared of fit:    66.05 DOF:    124 RMS:  0.18
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.37    0.57
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.986094E-05  3.582015E-02 -5.144120E-06 -9.080521E-03  2.957909E-02  1.571338E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.2642E-13 -2.4280E-13 -4.4558E-14  4.9628E-14 -1.0779E-13 -1.1521E-12
 -2.4280E-13  2.2604E-13  4.8703E-14 -5.3297E-14  1.0274E-13  1.2519E-12
 -4.4558E-14  4.8703E-14  1.5137E-13 -6.0157E-14  1.7007E-14  3.1737E-13
  4.9628E-14 -5.3297E-14 -6.0157E-14  3.3278E-14 -2.2647E-14 -3.3465E-13
 -1.0779E-13  1.0274E-13  1.7007E-14 -2.2647E-14  1.0002E-13  4.6854E-13
 -1.1521E-12  1.2519E-12  3.1737E-13 -3.3465E-13  4.6854E-13  8.0595E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -18.731772   25.941861    0.260523   -0.310051   -0.914687  2456569.748858
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456570.5000  =  2013/10/05
Mean Anomaly:            2.74828 +/-     0.006
Argument of Peri:      226.35815 +/-     0.016
Long of Asc Node:      154.89721 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            23.07322 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.37780872 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     55.71107439 +/-    0.0035
Time of Perihelion: 2455411.0038 +/-       2.7
Perihelion:          34.66294454 +/-    0.0031
Aphelion:            76.75920425 +/-    0.0054
Period (y)              415.8345 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           29.77255113 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y           14.19735045 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z          -10.85713114 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00157543 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00292226 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00084255 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.72528482 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     33.80767868 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  7.90

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PD312. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PD312) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 10  04.24808  02 03 14.178  -07 27 38.15  23.4g 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2013 10  04.24808  02 03 14.18   -07 27 38.2   23.5g 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2014 09  15.30478  02 13 01.384  -06 57 57.79  22.8z 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2014 09  24.27920  02 12 27.242  -07 04 44.09  22.7i 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2014 09  24.27920  02 12 27.24   -07 04 44.1   23.0i 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2014 09  25.27025  02 12 23.111  -07 05 28.25  23.0r 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2014 09  25.27025  02 12 23.11   -07 05 28.2   23.1r 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2014 09  25.27305  02 12 23.097  -07 05 28.28  23.2g 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2014 09  25.27305  02 12 23.10   -07 05 28.3   23.7g 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2014 12  13.16509  02 06 11.821  -07 36 11.78  23.8g 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2014 12  13.16645  02 06 11.821  -07 36 11.57  23.1r 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2014 12  13.16645  02 06 11.82   -07 36 11.6   23.1r 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2015 01  16.07550  02 05 22.924  -07 24 34.58  23.4z 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2015 08  15.284653 02 22 21.75   -06 19 15.8   23.4i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  15.288449 02 22 21.74   -06 19 15.6   23.2z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.330515 02 22 19.78   -06 21 58.8   24.6g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.332720 02 22 19.78   -06 21 59.0   23.6r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.335069 02 22 19.76   -06 21 59.2   23.7i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  19.338877 02 22 19.77   -06 21 58.9   23.6z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  31.380799 02 22 03.84   -06 30 34.4   23.6r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 08  31.383171 02 22 03.84   -06 30 34.7   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.329497 02 21 45.49   -06 36 31.4   23.6g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.331701 02 21 45.49   -06 36 31.4   23.1r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.334039 02 21 45.50   -06 36 31.6   22.7i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  08.337847 02 21 45.47   -06 36 31.5   22.8z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.299416 02 21 31.06   -06 40 17.0   24.2g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.301644 02 21 31.06   -06 40 17.6   23.6r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.304005 02 21 31.06   -06 40 17.5   23.2i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 09  13.307824 02 21 31.04   -06 40 17.8   22.9z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.192552 02 19 45.88   -06 59 13.5   25.7g 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.194780 02 19 45.88   -06 59 13.1   23.8r 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.197141 02 19 45.87   -06 59 13.2   23.3i 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2015 10  09.200926 02 19 45.83   -06 59 13.5   22.7z 15PD312   W84  C~1Yfw      
2016 09  23.30588  02 29 13.39   -06 31 59.1   23.5r 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2016 10  27.18724  02 26 32.870  -06 54 08.50  23.4r 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2016 10  27.18724  02 26 32.87   -06 54 08.5   23.4r 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2016 10  27.18863  02 26 32.854  -06 54 08.42  23.3i 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2016 10  27.18863  02 26 32.85   -06 54 08.4   23.3i 15PD312   W84  C~3ctV      
2016 10  27.19001  02 26 32.857  -06 54 08.51  23.5g 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2016 12  06.07194  02 23 16.122  -07 05 05.83  23.0z 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2016 12  22.063108 02 22 22.02   -07 03 17.1   23.9g 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  22.065324 02 22 22.01   -07 03 17.1   23.3r 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  22.067697 02 22 22.00   -07 03 17.0   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  22.071667 02 22 22.00   -07 03 16.9   22.9z 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.055561 02 22 07.68   -07 01 40.9   24.0g 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.057766 02 22 07.66   -07 01 40.7   23.2r 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.060127 02 22 07.66   -07 01 40.6   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~2B01      
2016 12  28.064109 02 22 07.66   -07 01 40.6   23.1z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2016 12  31.11035  02 22 01.742  -07 00 40.51  24.3g 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2017 01  03.067674 02 21 56.91   -06 59 35.1   23.2r 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  03.070035 02 21 56.94   -06 59 35.0   23.4i 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  03.076655 02 21 56.89   -06 59 35.0   23.2z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  10.087766 02 21 49.24   -06 56 34.0   23.3z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.078571 02 21 47.38   -06 51 52.5   23.6g 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.080787 02 21 47.38   -06 51 52.4   23.0r 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.083137 02 21 47.38   -06 51 52.4   22.9i 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  19.087118 02 21 47.42   -06 51 51.9   23.1z 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  27.052564 02 21 53.35   -06 47 01.5   23.7g 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  27.054769 02 21 53.33   -06 47 01.5   23.3r 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 01  27.057130 02 21 53.34   -06 47 01.4   23.1i 15PD312   W84  C~2B02      
2017 11  25.14203  02 32 23.548  -06 47 35.24  22.7i 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2017 12  15.07993  02 30 59.347  -06 48 09.11  24.1g 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2017 12  23.15460  02 30 33.720  -06 46 45.83  23.5r 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2018 11  29.21652  02 40 20.652  -06 31 06.80  23.4r 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      
2018 12  03.12424  02 40 02.539  -06 31 29.67  23.9g 15PD312   W84  C~4yYA      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.00
     2   0.0000      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.05
     3   0.9475      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.23
     4   0.9720      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.01
     5   0.9720      0.00     0.25       0.00     0.00
     6   0.9747      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.04
     7   0.9747      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.01
     8   0.9747      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.06
     9   0.9747      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.08
    10   1.1907      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.27
    11   1.1907      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.10
    12   1.1907      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.07
    13   1.2836      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.17
    14   1.8618      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.31
    15   1.8618      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.04
    16   1.8729      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.16
    17   1.8729      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.27
    18   1.8729      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.37
    19   1.8729      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.09
    20   1.9059      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.26
    21   1.9059      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.07
    22   1.9277      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.04
    23   1.9277      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.14
    24   1.9277      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.05
    25   1.9277      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.32
    26   1.9413      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.47
    27   1.9413      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.03
    28   1.9413      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.18
    29   1.9413      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.05
    30   2.0122      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.36
    31   2.0122      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.13
    32   2.0122      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.12
    33   2.0122      0.00    -0.32       0.00    -0.02
    34   2.9707      0.00     0.24       0.00    -0.15
    35   3.0635      0.00     0.22       0.00     0.03
    36   3.0635      0.00     0.22       0.00     0.03
    37   3.0635      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.17
    38   3.0635      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.15
    39   3.0635      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.11
    40   3.1727      0.00     0.30       0.00    -0.02
    41   3.2165      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.29
    42   3.2165      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.32
    43   3.2165      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.25
    44   3.2165      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.21
    45   3.2329      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.35
    46   3.2329      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.19
    47   3.2329      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.13
    48   3.2329      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.20
    49   3.2412      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.19
    50   3.2493      0.00    -0.26       0.00    -0.04
    51   3.2493      0.00     0.25       0.00     0.00
    52   3.2494      0.00    -0.35       0.00    -0.15
    53   3.2686      0.00    -0.33       0.00     0.02
    54   3.2932      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.13
    55   3.2932      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.16
    56   3.2932      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.08
    57   3.2932      0.00     0.57       0.00     0.44
    58   3.3150      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.23
    59   3.3150      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.14
    60   3.3150      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.15
    61   4.1421      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.06
    62   4.1967      0.00     0.29       0.00     0.05
    63   4.2188      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.05
    64   5.1525      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.01
    65   5.1632      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.17

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15PD312    quality flag:3

Type:         5:2EEE    5:2EEE    5:2EEE
Type:         5:2EII    5:2EII    5:2EII

axisobj        56.168    56.168    56.168
ecceobj         0.383     0.383     0.383
incobj         23.031    23.031    23.031
qmin           34.182    34.182    34.182
qmax           77.690    77.690    77.690
amean          55.461    55.461    55.461
amin           54.812    54.810    54.813
amax           56.263    56.263    56.263
emean           0.306     0.306     0.306
emin            0.259     0.259     0.259
emax            0.383     0.383     0.383
imean          25.271    25.269    25.274
imin           21.952    21.952    21.952
imax           26.971    26.966    26.976
excite_mean     0.527     0.527     0.527
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.877     2.877     2.877

libcent 0       179.7     180.0     179.4
libamp  0        92.2      92.1      92.2
libcent 1       211.5     211.7     212.2
libamp  1       135.3     135.1     134.6
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       197.4     197.4     197.5
kozaiamp         29.7      29.7      29.7