The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15NL45
# Created Mon Jun 23 01:10:23 2025
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting 27 observations of 27
# Arc: 10.91y
# First observation: 2006/08/19
# Last observation: 2017/07/18
# Chi-squared of fit: 8.18 DOF: 48 RMS: 0.10
# Min/Max residuals: -0.21 0.27
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.667267E-05 2.753996E-02 1.352165E-06 1.982308E-03 2.680637E-02 6.715655E-04
# Covariance matrix:
7.3410E-13 -1.4593E-13 3.4361E-15 -4.8813E-15 -3.7974E-14 -2.5045E-13
-1.4593E-13 1.3060E-13 -5.9333E-15 9.2616E-15 1.9141E-13 4.5975E-13
3.4361E-15 -5.9333E-15 6.8031E-13 -7.6549E-14 -9.2401E-15 -2.2452E-14
-4.8813E-15 9.2616E-15 -7.6549E-14 9.9494E-15 1.6927E-14 3.5534E-14
-3.7974E-14 1.9141E-13 -9.2401E-15 1.6927E-14 6.7634E-13 7.9800E-13
-2.5045E-13 4.5975E-13 -2.2452E-14 3.5534E-14 7.9800E-13 1.7557E-12
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
9.654574 -34.463749 -0.014867 0.169893 -0.998209 2453966.827178
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2453966.5000 = 2006/08/19
Mean Anomaly: 40.98474 +/- 0.104
Argument of Peri: 22.59002 +/- 0.114
Long of Asc Node: 259.24813 +/- 0.001
Inclination: 10.24871 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.03930052 +/- 0.0000
Semi-Major Axis: 39.44549040 +/- 0.0043
Time of Perihelion: 2443664.6759 +/- 26.1
Perihelion: 37.89526194 +/- 0.0046
Aphelion: 40.99571886 +/- 0.0049
Period (y) 247.7446 +/- 0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 31.16199543 +/- 0.0009
Ecliptic Y -21.37483027 +/- 0.0006
Ecliptic Z 6.25635148 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00162398 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00229513 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00021105 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 38.30266349 +/- 0.0008
Geocenter to KBO 37.30458879 +/- 0.0011
# Hcoef: 9.06
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15NL45. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15NL45) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2006 08 19.326424 21 38 13.73 -03 54 04.9 15NL45 T14 C~8r6r 2006 08 19.338424 21 38 13.68 -03 54 05.1 15NL45 T14 C~8r6r 2014 09 18.246823 22 22 02.35 +00 53 25.6 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2014 09 18.272603 22 22 02.24 +00 53 24.7 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2014 09 22.24066 22 21 44.83 +00 51 19.3 25.1r 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2014 09 22.25348 22 21 44.78 +00 51 18.8 24.6r 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2014 09 22.27924 22 21 44.67 +00 51 18.0 25.1r 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2014 09 22.31871 22 21 44.49 +00 51 16.6 24.6r 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2015 07 14.480474 22 32 36.02 +01 54 30.5 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2015 07 14.566459 22 32 35.73 +01 54 29.9 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2015 07 15.45241 22 32 32.94 +01 54 25.0 25.0r 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 15.46726 22 32 32.89 +01 54 25.0 25.1r 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 15.47587 22 32 32.87 +01 54 25.0 25.4r 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 15.51059 22 32 32.75 +01 54 24.7 25.2r 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 15.52482 22 32 32.71 +01 54 24.7 25.0r 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 15.55122 22 32 32.62 +01 54 24.4 24.8r 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 21.45521 22 32 12.53 +01 53 39.6 24.9i 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 21.48716 22 32 12.42 +01 53 39.1 24.4i 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 21.51429 22 32 12.32 +01 53 39.1 24.9i 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 21.60639 22 32 11.99 +01 53 38.1 24.6i 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 22.42468 22 32 09.04 +01 53 30.2 24.8z 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 22.44360 22 32 08.97 +01 53 29.9 24.8z 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 22.45439 22 32 08.92 +01 53 29.9 24.5z 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 22.51928 22 32 08.70 +01 53 29.2 24.5z 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2015 07 22.52270 22 32 08.68 +01 53 29.2 24.2z 15NL45 T09 C~8ncg 2017 07 18.454079 22 43 40.59 +03 07 53.2 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r 2017 07 18.494174 22 43 40.44 +03 07 53.1 15NL45 T09 C~8r6r
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.06
2 0.0000 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.04
3 8.0819 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.06
4 8.0820 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.15
5 8.0929 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.19
6 8.0929 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.09
7 8.0930 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.11
8 8.0931 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.03
9 8.9012 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.08
10 8.9014 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.07
11 8.9038 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.10
12 8.9039 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.01
13 8.9039 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.04
14 8.9040 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.06
15 8.9040 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.02
16 8.9041 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.13
17 8.9203 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.08
18 8.9204 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.12
19 8.9204 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.14
20 8.9207 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.01
21 8.9229 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.07
22 8.9230 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.04
23 8.9230 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.07
24 8.9232 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.01
25 8.9232 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.05
26 10.9134 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.12
27 10.9135 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15NL45 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 39.543 39.543 39.543 ecceobj 0.039 0.039 0.039 incobj 10.270 10.270 10.270 qmin 36.027 35.854 36.032 qmax 43.695 43.270 43.662 amean 39.478 39.473 39.461 amin 39.011 39.011 39.011 amax 39.933 39.936 39.937 emean 0.040 0.040 0.046 emin 0.001 0.001 0.000 emax 0.094 0.090 0.093 imean 12.642 12.718 12.712 imin 9.150 9.717 10.072 imax 15.089 14.921 14.972 excite_mean 0.223 0.224 0.226 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.993 2.993 2.992 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 157.4 199.6 181.7 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9