Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15KM173

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15KM173   
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:21 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     41 observations of     41
# Arc:   2.84y
# First observation: 2014/05/29
#  Last observation: 2017/03/30
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000160   0.027848   0.000012   0.003049   0.026902   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    22.61 DOF:     76 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.60    0.27
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.720745E-05  2.842410E-02  2.313832E-06  3.109650E-03  2.760832E-02  6.258916E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.8766E-13 -2.2155E-13  4.1028E-15 -1.2198E-14 -5.4005E-14 -1.8602E-12
 -2.2155E-13  4.2126E-13 -1.0581E-14  3.1112E-14  1.3067E-13  4.7558E-12
  4.1028E-15 -1.0581E-14  1.3617E-13 -8.9403E-14 -3.5267E-15 -1.4524E-13
 -1.2198E-14  3.1112E-14 -8.9403E-14  8.1945E-14  1.6389E-14  4.4790E-13
 -5.4005E-14  1.3067E-13 -3.5267E-15  1.6389E-14  1.9326E-13  2.3119E-12
 -1.8602E-12  4.7558E-12 -1.4524E-13  4.4790E-13  2.3119E-12  6.7796E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    5.569255 -127.904593   -0.275264    0.094827   -0.971907  2456806.847808
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456800.5000  =  2014/05/23
Mean Anomaly:           62.47140 +/-     0.024
Argument of Peri:      312.63722 +/-     0.012
Long of Asc Node:      191.68119 +/-     0.003
Inclination:             8.26088 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.23003169 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     39.50886794 +/-    0.0059
Time of Perihelion: 2441059.9804 +/-       5.0
Perihelion:          30.42057638 +/-    0.0123
Aphelion:            48.59715950 +/-    0.0135
Period (y)              248.3419 +/-      0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -22.53131308 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y          -29.38286191 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z            3.51534184 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00185770 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00219914 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00036728 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   37.19368591 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     36.22095962 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  8.65

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15KM173. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15KM173) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 05  29.34703  15 24 35.831  -12 54 18.58  24.1r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2014 05  29.38590  15 24 35.636  -12 54 17.91  24.6r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2014 05  29.42474  15 24 35.431  -12 54 17.07  23.9r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2014 05  31.37090  15 24 25.526  -12 53 41.00  23.8r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2014 06  21.35020  15 22 48.931  -12 48 27.95  24.3r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2014 06  21.38905  15 22 48.759  -12 48 27.61        15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2014 07  19.26644  15 21 27.219  -12 45 49.54  25.0r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 02  20.65258  15 36 52.638  -13 39 15.68  24.3r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 03  19.56666  15 36 29.102  -13 33 03.44  24.3r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 03  21.62515  15 36 24.225  -13 32 26.22  24.8r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 04  12.48402  15 35 10.194  -13 24 57.30  24.9r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 04  12.52502  15 35 10.002  -13 24 56.30  24.0r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 04  18.50669  15 34 43.748  -13 22 42.57  25.2r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  17.37425  15 32 17.233  -13 12 03.04  24.2r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  17.37924  15 32 17.179  -13 12 03.01  24.5r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  17.42094  15 32 16.958  -13 12 02.13  24.1r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  17.46306  15 32 16.727  -13 12 01.25  24.0r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  24.36500  15 31 40.128  -13 09 42.55  24.0r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  24.41125  15 31 39.884  -13 09 41.62  24.5r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  24.45211  15 31 39.657  -13 09 40.74  24.2r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 05  26.43973  15 31 29.234  -13 09 02.79  24.1r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 06  18.33918  15 29 38.127  -13 02 59.78  24.2r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 06  18.38024  15 29 37.942  -13 02 59.37  24.6r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 06  21.35487  15 29 25.382  -13 02 24.39  24.4r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 07  10.38689  15 28 19.732  -13 00 00.26  24.0r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 07  15.31053  15 28 07.596  -12 59 46.48  24.0r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 07  18.31267  15 28 01.254  -12 59 43.42  24.3r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2015 08  11.33945  15 27 42.557  -13 01 32.06  24.2r 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 02  06.62103  15 42 54.114  -13 52 41.25  25.0w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 02  12.60657  15 43 05.982  -13 52 13.82  24.5w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 02  12.61062  15 43 05.987  -13 52 13.91  24.5w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 04  03.53855  15 42 12.289  -13 40 15.80  24.9w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 04  03.54259  15 42 12.282  -13 40 15.66  24.9w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 04  08.58811  15 41 53.637  -13 38 31.04  25.1w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 04  08.59215  15 41 53.609  -13 38 30.88  25.1w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 04  29.47374  15 40 19.640  -13 30 57.94  24.5w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 05  04.40882  15 39 54.597  -13 29 10.79  24.7w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 05  30.48224  15 37 37.530  -13 20 34.33  24.5w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 07  04.28603  15 35 05.617  -13 13 36.00  24.8w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2016 07  05.37863  15 35 02.031  -13 13 29.76  23.1w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      
2017 03  30.57261  15 48 51.615  -13 53 12.37  24.8w 15KM173   568  C~2lVF      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.11
     2   0.0001     -2.93    -0.06      -0.07    -0.13
     3   0.0002     -6.04    -0.12      -0.00    -0.03
     4   0.0055   -155.28     0.07      -1.41     0.20
     5   0.0630  -1601.27     0.08     -53.89    -0.01
     6   0.0631  -1603.79    -0.06     -54.19    -0.16
     7   0.1394  -2797.88     0.20    -203.07    -0.28
     8   0.7318  11100.08    -0.05      18.18     0.11
     9   0.8055  10676.76    -0.07     298.01     0.02
    10   0.8112  10598.59    -0.12     317.16    -0.17
    11   0.8710   9439.83     0.14     494.05     0.07
    12   0.8711   9436.86    -0.11     494.35     0.11
    13   0.8875   9032.03     0.05     531.94     0.25
    14   0.9665   6798.64     0.24     634.43     0.24
    15   0.9665   6797.87    -0.12     634.26     0.07
    16   0.9667   6794.52    -0.06     634.33     0.11
    17   0.9668   6791.03    -0.09     634.36     0.10
    18   0.9857   6238.27     0.03     638.61     0.01
    19   0.9858   6234.59     0.08     638.65     0.06
    20   0.9859   6231.15    -0.06     638.69     0.11
    21   0.9914   6074.11     0.09     638.33    -0.04
    22   1.0541   4410.32    -0.05     592.45    -0.04
    23   1.0542   4407.60    -0.08     592.18    -0.15
    24   1.0623   4221.02     0.16     580.92    -0.00
    25   1.1144   3255.35    -0.13     483.92     0.02
    26   1.1279   3080.03     0.18     453.40     0.27
    27   1.1361   2989.45     0.08     433.43    -0.05
    28   1.2019   2751.55     0.03     260.49    -0.10
    29   1.6927  16431.88     0.16     478.22    -0.06
    30   1.7091  16594.63     0.01     545.34     0.08
    31   1.7091  16594.72     0.01     545.27    -0.04
    32   1.8486  15660.97    -0.05    1062.72    -0.11
    33   1.8486  15660.84     0.04    1062.83    -0.03
    34   1.8624  15370.52     0.06    1101.08    -0.04
    35   1.8624  15370.08    -0.12    1101.14    -0.01
    36   1.9196  13924.66     0.09    1219.89    -0.12
    37   1.9331  13542.74     0.11    1237.90    -0.10
    38   2.0045  11469.76     0.06    1265.23    -0.01
    39   2.0998   9210.65     0.19    1139.92     0.03
    40   2.1028   9158.22    -0.60    1133.36    -0.16
    41   2.8370  21549.19    -0.02    1650.52     0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15KM173    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.238    39.255    39.222
ecceobj         0.226     0.226     0.225
incobj          8.287     8.287     8.287
qmin           28.800    28.843    28.729
qmax           50.493    50.655    50.622
amean          39.455    39.455    39.455
amin           39.058    39.037    39.076
amax           39.930    39.930    39.901
emean           0.239     0.238     0.240
emin            0.205     0.207     0.206
emax            0.268     0.269     0.270
imean           7.166     7.332     7.019
imin            4.912     5.218     4.663
imax            9.148     9.223     9.132
excite_mean     0.271     0.272     0.271
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.968     2.967     2.968

libcent 0       180.6     180.6     180.2
libamp  0        49.3      57.7      40.6
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       260.4     260.2     261.3
kozaiamp         59.4      57.4      59.2