Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15KJ172

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15KJ172   
# Created Mon Dec  6 02:13:21 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     19 observations of     19
# Arc:   1.36y
# First observation: 2015/02/23
#  Last observation: 2016/07/04
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.001407   0.212641  -0.000459  -0.040238   0.115928   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     8.39 DOF:     32 RMS:  0.12
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.34    0.27
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  3.032530E-05  2.153967E-01 -6.648075E-06 -4.257240E-02  1.144262E-01  1.410922E-01
# Covariance matrix:
  3.7073E-13  9.8637E-13 -1.1975E-15 -2.6055E-13  6.5216E-13  5.8643E-12
  9.8637E-13  3.0165E-11  4.6906E-13 -7.0808E-12  1.0676E-11  1.5659E-10
 -1.1975E-15  4.6906E-13  1.6356E-13 -2.7072E-13  1.4080E-13  2.4761E-12
 -2.6055E-13 -7.0808E-12 -2.7072E-13  1.9933E-12 -2.5170E-12 -3.7153E-11
  6.5216E-13  1.0676E-11  1.4080E-13 -2.5170E-12  4.1596E-12  5.5809E-11
  5.8643E-12  1.5659E-10  2.4761E-12 -3.7153E-11  5.5809E-11  8.2156E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    5.969394 -123.651079    0.976672    0.014546   -0.137881  2457077.136848
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:           42.51556 +/-     0.011
Argument of Peri:       52.02092 +/-     0.005
Long of Asc Node:       80.50175 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            11.39999 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.47550426 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     10.87325987 +/-    0.0015
Time of Perihelion: 2455523.8805 +/-       0.2
Perihelion:           5.70297852 +/-    0.0013
Aphelion:            16.04354123 +/-    0.0024
Period (y)               35.8548 +/-      0.01
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -5.70912477 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Y           -6.80914753 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z            0.90881542 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00236727 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00574460 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00066192 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO    8.93221927 +/-    0.0001
Geocenter to KBO      8.73925999 +/-    0.0002
# Hcoef: 14.88

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15KJ172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15KJ172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  23.63607  15 41 52.517  -13 31 38.49  24.5r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji8      
2015 03  19.60407  15 41 38.135  -13 24 06.78  24.8r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji8      
2015 03  22.51769  15 41 18.829  -13 22 23.26  24.5r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji8      
2015 04  12.50860  15 37 20.727  -13 06 18.24  24.4r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji8      
2015 04  12.54955  15 37 20.103  -13 06 16.04  24.3r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji8      
2015 05  17.37006  15 26 38.168  -12 35 18.13  24.2r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji8      
2015 05  17.41677  15 26 37.233  -12 35 15.82  24.2r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji8      
2015 05  17.45892  15 26 36.370  -12 35 13.82  24.4r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2015 05  24.36087  15 24 20.588  -12 30 12.92  24.6r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2015 05  24.40713  15 24 19.689  -12 30 10.99  24.3r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2015 05  24.44802  15 24 18.854  -12 30 09.48  24.3r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2015 05  26.43568  15 23 40.556  -12 28 51.49  24.4r 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2016 04  03.59570  16 24 47.940  -17 50 25.81  25.2w 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2016 04  09.58916  16 23 52.286  -17 48 29.26  25.7w 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2016 04  29.53818  16 19 22.867  -17 39 52.70  25.3w 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2016 05  04.46587  16 18 00.422  -17 37 25.05  23.7w 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2016 05  04.51055  16 17 59.641  -17 37 23.63  24.9w 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2016 05  30.50656  16 09 56.815  -17 24 27.03  25.0w 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      
2016 07  04.33867  16 00 31.192  -17 15 26.20  25.9w 15KJ172   568  C~2ji9      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.16
     2   0.0656   -306.79     0.10     392.35     0.05
     3   0.0736   -604.67     0.03     429.18    -0.02
     4   0.1311  -4210.50    -0.09     571.70    -0.05
     5   0.1312  -4219.88     0.02     571.73     0.02
     6   0.2265 -13800.93    -0.03     158.79    -0.22
     7   0.2266 -13814.83     0.14     157.72    -0.03
     8   0.2268 -13827.63     0.04     156.61    -0.03
     9   0.2457 -15839.75     0.03     -33.87     0.01
    10   0.2458 -15853.06     0.27     -35.20     0.14
    11   0.2459 -15865.36    -0.06     -36.72    -0.08
    12   0.2513 -16431.78    -0.34     -98.01     0.04
    13   1.1087  40068.10     0.15   -7750.02    -0.01
    14   1.1251  39235.15    -0.11   -7774.00    -0.12
    15   1.1797  35227.37     0.23   -7951.82     0.08
    16   1.1932  34007.81    -0.18   -8021.21     0.03
    17   1.1934  33996.27    -0.10   -8021.85     0.11
    18   1.2645  26912.36     0.03   -8557.70    -0.08
    19   1.3599  18764.24    -0.02   -9638.30     0.02

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15KJ172    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        10.771    10.773    10.769
ecceobj         0.468     0.468     0.468
incobj         11.389    11.388    11.389
qmin            5.514     5.583     5.711
qmax           16.856    27.476    18.828
amean           9.733    13.296    11.519
amin            8.805     9.932    10.769
amax           11.261    16.783    12.270
emean           0.336     0.524     0.501
emin            0.252     0.397     0.468
emax            0.497     0.637     0.535
imean          13.483    11.846    10.116
imin           10.006    10.006    10.006
imax           16.694    15.866    10.226
excite_mean     0.412     0.564     0.531
fracstop        0.003     0.002     0.000
cjmean          4.139     3.419     3.671

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       179.1     152.2      53.8
kozaiamp        158.4     107.7       2.8