The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15JM13 # Created Wed May 21 01:10:30 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 12 observations of 12 # Arc: 8.08d # First observation: 2015/05/15 # Last observation: 2015/05/23 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000000 0.136405 -0.000001 -0.036229 0.073868 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # Chi-squared of fit: 0.75 DOF: 19 RMS: 0.04 # Min/Max residuals: -0.09 0.08 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.475978E-05 1.080070E-01 -8.674619E-06 -3.909270E-02 6.905591E-02 1.105528E-02 # Covariance matrix: 5.7722E-12 2.2552E-08 -2.2774E-13 2.1959E-09 3.9006E-09 -8.8612E-08 2.2552E-08 9.4215E-05 -1.0553E-09 9.2174E-06 1.6235E-05 -4.1379E-04 -2.2774E-13 -1.0553E-09 2.7414E-13 -1.1888E-10 -1.7912E-10 7.0005E-09 2.1959E-09 9.2174E-06 -1.1888E-10 9.0430E-07 1.5871E-06 -4.1601E-05 3.9006E-09 1.6235E-05 -1.7912E-10 1.5871E-06 2.7990E-06 -7.0162E-05 -8.8612E-08 -4.1379E-04 7.0005E-09 -4.1601E-05 -7.0162E-05 2.8106E-03 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 11.878142 -146.905158 -0.363379 0.193841 -0.921121 2457157.907646 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457150.5000 = 2015/05/08 Mean Anomaly: 45.97444 +/- 73.135 Argument of Peri: 89.70585 +/- 121.688 Long of Asc Node: 62.26706 +/- 2.559 Inclination: 22.91271 +/- 1.751 Eccentricity: 0.15334244 +/- 0.3815 Semi-Major Axis: 16.97280247 +/- 1.0637 Time of Perihelion: 2453888.8097 +/- 5179.6 Perihelion: 14.37015150 +/- 6.5371 Aphelion: 19.57545345 +/- 6.5900 Period (y) 69.9260 +/- 6.57 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -12.46526884 +/- 0.2876 Ecliptic Y -8.55633714 +/- 0.1874 Ecliptic Z 2.98057182 +/- 0.0722 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00170871 +/- 0.0019 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00400195 +/- 0.0010 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00142642 +/- 0.0004 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 15.41030957 +/- 0.2553 Geocenter to KBO 14.48101955 +/- 0.3508 # Hcoef: 12.57
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15JM13. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15JM13) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 05 15.406868 14 19 38.218 -01 21 28.94 24.3r 15JM13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.428928 14 19 37.970 -01 21 28.47 24.4r 15JM13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.448689 14 19 37.734 -01 21 28.09 24.2r 15JM13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.479017 14 19 37.383 -01 21 27.55 24.3r 15JM13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.345479 14 19 16.412 -01 20 55.58 25.0g 15JM13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.431078 14 19 15.429 -01 20 54.23 25.2g 15JM13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.446084 14 19 15.260 -01 20 53.98 25.0g 15JM13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 23.41539 14 18 10.50 -01 19 43.1 24.8z 15JM13 T09 C~8suo 2015 05 23.43325 14 18 10.31 -01 19 42.9 23.7z 15JM13 T09 C~8suo 2015 05 23.45401 14 18 10.08 -01 19 42.7 24.4z 15JM13 T09 C~8suo 2015 05 23.46876 14 18 09.93 -01 19 42.7 24.2z 15JM13 T09 C~8suo 2015 05 23.48621 14 18 09.74 -01 19 42.4 24.1z 15JM13 T09 C~8suo
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.06
2 0.0001 -3.66 0.08 -0.80 0.04
3 0.0001 -7.13 -0.03 -1.62 0.02
4 0.0002 -12.27 -0.04 -2.86 -0.00
5 0.0053 -319.42 0.06 -77.56 0.02
6 0.0055 -333.76 -0.04 -81.20 -0.02
7 0.0056 -336.24 -0.02 -81.81 -0.00
8 0.0219 -1275.45 0.03 -338.79 -0.05
9 0.0220 -1278.20 0.03 -339.55 0.02
10 0.0220 -1281.52 -0.09 -340.51 0.01
11 0.0221 -1283.64 0.06 -341.26 -0.06
12 0.0221 -1286.43 -0.04 -341.93 0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15JM13 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0