Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15HX10

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15HX10    
# Created Fri Mar 29 01:17:56 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     30 observations of     30
# Arc:   4.16y
# First observation: 2015/04/09
#  Last observation: 2019/06/08
# Chi-squared of fit:    20.96 DOF:     54 RMS:  0.15
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.30    0.33
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.987166E-05  1.934127E-01  1.787753E-05  1.126047E-01  1.017697E-01 -1.802028E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  1.0472E-13 -6.0078E-14  1.2755E-14 -4.4510E-14  1.5854E-13 -7.8715E-14
 -6.0078E-14  1.5920E-13 -2.7168E-14  8.9051E-14  2.8916E-14  1.3872E-13
  1.2755E-14 -2.7168E-14  7.5490E-14 -4.3968E-14  2.9872E-14 -3.5711E-14
 -4.4510E-14  8.9051E-14 -4.3968E-14  9.2157E-14 -1.1554E-13  1.2144E-13
  1.5854E-13  2.8916E-14  2.9872E-14 -1.1554E-13  1.0913E-12 -2.4118E-13
 -7.8715E-14  1.3872E-13 -3.5711E-14  1.2144E-13 -2.4118E-13  2.0438E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -10.775863 -154.731359    0.109314   -0.185435   -0.975055  2457121.794386
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457122.5000  =  2015/04/10
Mean Anomaly:          351.65740 +/-    12.019
Argument of Peri:      359.05222 +/-     0.000
Long of Asc Node:      220.96579 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            31.58759 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.34225075 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     16.22398227 +/-    0.0026
Time of Perihelion: 2457675.6383 +/-     796.9
Perihelion:          10.67131224 +/-    0.0023
Aphelion:            21.77665230 +/-    0.0039
Period (y)               65.3498 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -9.67654465 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Y           -4.44523210 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z           -1.83698356 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00213634 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00474980 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00306664 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   10.80604899 +/-    0.0001
Geocenter to KBO      9.82617230 +/-    0.0002
# Hcoef: 12.10

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15HX10. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15HX10) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 04  09.293608 13 17 01.78   -19 46 33.1         15HX10    309  C~3xrU      
2015 04  09.294641 13 17 01.76   -19 46 33.0         15HX10    309  C~3xrU      
2015 04  18.17804  13 14 51.01   -19 24 05.8   22.8V 15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  18.18128  13 14 50.96   -19 24 05.3         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  18.18776  13 14 50.86   -19 24 04.2         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  18.19100  13 14 50.81   -19 24 03.7         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  21.170278 13 14 07.69   -19 16 12.2         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.173519 13 14 07.65   -19 16 11.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.176748 13 14 07.58   -19 16 11.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.179988 13 14 07.54   -19 16 10.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.183241 13 14 07.50   -19 16 10.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  22.16909  13 13 53.40   -19 13 32.3   22.8V 15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  22.17883  13 13 53.26   -19 13 30.8         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  22.18209  13 13 53.21   -19 13 30.3         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  23.33299  13 13 36.83   -19 10 26.4   21.5R 15HX10    291  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  23.35181  13 13 36.59   -19 10 22.8   21.1R 15HX10    291  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  23.37065  13 13 36.28   -19 10 19.8   22.1R 15HX10    291  C~1Qgk      
2016 03  06.282628 14 17 03.53   -18 32 43.0         15HX10    W84  C~5Pvj      
2016 03  06.284686 14 17 03.51   -18 32 42.8         15HX10    W84  C~5Pvj      
2016 05  01.11296  14 05 34.47   -16 38 37.4   22.8V 15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.11612  14 05 34.42   -16 38 36.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.11932  14 05 34.37   -16 38 36.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.12249  14 05 34.33   -16 38 35.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.12568  14 05 34.28   -16 38 35.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2017 04  28.396999 14 59 35.12   -13 43 18.8         15HX10    568  C~5Pvj      
2017 04  28.398216 14 59 35.11   -13 43 18.6         15HX10    568  C~5Pvj      
2017 04  28.399431 14 59 35.10   -13 43 18.4         15HX10    568  C~5Pvj      
2019 06  01.291654 16 30 14.97   -05 04 01.6         15HX10    W84  C~5Pvj      
2019 06  08.192399 16 28 29.89   -04 54 32.6         15HX10    W84  C~5Pvj      
2019 06  08.193844 16 28 29.88   -04 54 32.5         15HX10    W84  C~5Pvj      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.09
     2   0.0000      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.14
     3   0.0243      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.03
     4   0.0243      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.04
     5   0.0244      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.05
     6   0.0244      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.04
     7   0.0325      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.01
     8   0.0325      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.21
     9   0.0325      0.00    -0.29       0.00    -0.22
    10   0.0325      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.24
    11   0.0326      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.26
    12   0.0353      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.11
    13   0.0353      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.05
    14   0.0353      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.03
    15   0.0384      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.30
    16   0.0385      0.00     0.33       0.00     0.25
    17   0.0385      0.00    -0.24       0.00     0.20
    18   0.9089      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.11
    19   0.9089      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.06
    20   1.0618      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.17
    21   1.0618      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.19
    22   1.0618      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.21
    23   1.0618      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.24
    24   1.0618      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.26
    25   2.0537      0.00    -0.25       0.00     0.01
    26   2.0537      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.04
    27   2.0537      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.08
    28   4.1451      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.20
    29   4.1640      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.05
    30   4.1640      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15HX10    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        16.142    16.142    16.142
ecceobj         0.336     0.336     0.336
incobj         31.555    31.555    31.555
qmin            9.608    10.525    10.171
qmax           25.630    22.049    25.739
amean          17.349    16.145    16.486
amin           16.079    15.710    16.079
amax           18.133    16.385    18.169
emean           0.364     0.341     0.355
emin            0.298     0.325     0.335
emax            0.433     0.347     0.417
imean          30.598    32.317    32.040
imin           28.567    32.145    30.478
imax           32.434    32.434    32.433
excite_mean     0.626     0.634     0.639
fracstop        0.046     0.003     0.004
cjmean          2.955     3.037     3.009

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       174.5      30.6      31.0
kozaiamp        179.6     179.6     179.6