Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15HX10

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15HX10    
# Created Sat Nov 27 02:13:26 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     22 observations of     22
# Arc:   1.06y
# First observation: 2015/04/09
#  Last observation: 2016/05/01
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000001   0.198584  -0.000088   0.115878   0.102666   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    12.79 DOF:     38 RMS:  0.13
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.31    0.38
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  3.023662E-05  1.934178E-01  1.746622E-05  1.126098E-01  1.017729E-01 -1.797509E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  6.1982E-13  1.3752E-12 -1.2848E-14  5.6773E-13  3.2437E-12  4.5455E-12
  1.3752E-12  1.4951E-09 -2.7893E-11  1.0319E-09  2.6505E-10  8.1516E-09
 -1.2848E-14 -2.7893E-11  6.1210E-13 -1.9361E-11 -4.8637E-12 -1.5221E-10
  5.6773E-13  1.0319E-09 -1.9361E-11  7.1312E-10  1.8046E-10  5.6305E-09
  3.2437E-12  2.6505E-10 -4.8637E-12  1.8046E-10  6.3884E-11  1.4259E-09
  4.5455E-12  8.1516E-09 -1.5221E-10  5.6305E-09  1.4259E-09  4.4478E-08
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -10.775863 -154.731359    0.109314   -0.185435   -0.975055  2457121.794386
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457120.5000  =  2015/04/08
Mean Anomaly:          351.64415 +/-     0.098
Argument of Peri:      359.01079 +/-     0.214
Long of Asc Node:      220.96563 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            31.58782 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.34212746 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     16.22146400 +/-    0.0046
Time of Perihelion: 2457674.3875 +/-       6.5
Perihelion:          10.67165569 +/-    0.0042
Aphelion:            21.77127231 +/-    0.0068
Period (y)               65.3346 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -9.67626414 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y           -4.44510364 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z           -1.83692896 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00213523 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00475029 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00306645 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   10.80570878 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO      9.82579729 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef: 12.10

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15HX10. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15HX10) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 04  09.293608 13 17 01.78   -19 46 33.1         15HX10    309  C~3xrU      
2015 04  09.294641 13 17 01.76   -19 46 33.0         15HX10    309  C~3xrU      
2015 04  18.17804  13 14 51.01   -19 24 05.8   22.8V 15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  18.18128  13 14 50.96   -19 24 05.3         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  18.18776  13 14 50.86   -19 24 04.2         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  18.19100  13 14 50.81   -19 24 03.7         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  21.170278 13 14 07.69   -19 16 12.2         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.173519 13 14 07.65   -19 16 11.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.176748 13 14 07.58   -19 16 11.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.179988 13 14 07.54   -19 16 10.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  21.183241 13 14 07.50   -19 16 10.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2015 04  22.16909  13 13 53.40   -19 13 32.3   22.8V 15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  22.17883  13 13 53.26   -19 13 30.8         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  22.18209  13 13 53.21   -19 13 30.3         15HX10    W84  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  23.33299  13 13 36.83   -19 10 26.4   21.5R 15HX10    291  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  23.35181  13 13 36.59   -19 10 22.8   21.1R 15HX10    291  C~1Qgk      
2015 04  23.37065  13 13 36.28   -19 10 19.8   22.1R 15HX10    291  C~1Qgk      
2016 05  01.11296  14 05 34.47   -16 38 37.4   22.8V 15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.11612  14 05 34.42   -16 38 36.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.11932  14 05 34.37   -16 38 36.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.12249  14 05 34.33   -16 38 35.9         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      
2016 05  01.12568  14 05 34.28   -16 38 35.4         15HX10    W84  C~3xrU      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.01
     2   0.0000     -0.30    -0.08      -0.02    -0.07
     3   0.0243  -2223.64     0.15     535.02     0.10
     4   0.0243  -2224.48     0.14     535.21     0.08
     5   0.0244  -2226.21     0.06     535.68     0.14
     6   0.0244  -2227.06     0.04     535.87     0.12
     7   0.0325  -2972.13    -0.08     735.53     0.02
     8   0.0325  -2972.77     0.11     735.58    -0.14
     9   0.0325  -2973.88    -0.18     735.66    -0.28
    10   0.0325  -2974.60    -0.07     735.91    -0.25
    11   0.0326  -2975.31     0.03     736.15    -0.23
    12   0.0353  -3220.62    -0.03     804.85     0.15
    13   0.0353  -3223.03     0.03     805.47     0.10
    14   0.0353  -3223.88     0.01     805.65     0.07
    15   0.0384  -3509.06    -0.01     885.55    -0.31
    16   0.0385  -3513.58     0.20     887.56     0.38
    17   0.0385  -3518.80    -0.28     888.62     0.12
    18   1.0618  35422.05     0.01   25466.50    -0.04
    19   1.0618  35421.18    -0.03   25466.75    -0.03
    20   1.0618  35420.31    -0.06   25466.99    -0.02
    21   1.0618  35419.58     0.05   25467.28     0.04
    22   1.0618  35418.71     0.02   25467.52     0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15HX10    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        16.139    16.331    15.953
ecceobj         0.336     0.337     0.334
incobj         31.556    31.555    31.556
qmin           10.529     9.735    10.092
qmax           22.762    22.845    25.139
amean          16.285    16.179    16.326
amin           16.047    15.823    15.520
amax           16.702    16.693    17.754
emean           0.343     0.378     0.367
emin            0.330     0.335     0.333
emax            0.363     0.399     0.416
imean          32.190    30.481    31.761
imin           31.271    29.727    31.068
imax           32.441    32.307    32.263
excite_mean     0.634     0.633     0.642
fracstop        0.004     0.014     0.002
cjmean          3.027     3.034     3.019

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        30.8      87.8      23.0
kozaiamp        179.6     179.5      22.4