Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GY53

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GY53    
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:15 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     21 observations of     21
# Arc:   1.15y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2016/04/14
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.001869   0.145908   0.000108   0.065305   0.086552   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     8.77 DOF:     36 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.33    0.36
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.584725E-05  1.432730E-01  1.142369E-05  6.469535E-02  8.741144E-02  2.304290E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  3.4003E-13  1.0248E-12 -6.4582E-14  6.9756E-13  6.9789E-13  9.1570E-12
  1.0248E-12  2.6345E-11 -1.4315E-12  1.5585E-11  8.7773E-12  2.0284E-10
 -6.4582E-14 -1.4315E-12  2.1022E-13 -9.9371E-13 -4.8369E-13 -1.1146E-11
  6.9756E-13  1.5585E-11 -9.9371E-13  9.6150E-12  5.2551E-12  1.2134E-10
  6.9789E-13  8.7773E-12 -4.8369E-13  5.2551E-12  3.5562E-12  6.8548E-11
  9.1570E-12  2.0284E-10 -1.1146E-11  1.2134E-10  6.8548E-11  1.5793E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -0.065694 -154.873718    0.825399   -0.000469   -0.538064  2457071.002878
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:           80.63766 +/-     0.055
Argument of Peri:      269.59273 +/-     0.038
Long of Asc Node:      201.31650 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            24.09410 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.08390384 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     12.08981844 +/-    0.0010
Time of Perihelion: 2453631.2517 +/-       2.3
Perihelion:          11.07543626 +/-    0.0031
Aphelion:            13.10420062 +/-    0.0032
Period (y)               42.0376 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -11.19813155 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           -4.33849791 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z           -0.01299215 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00124627 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00437590 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00202561 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   12.00919994 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO     11.44015070 +/-    0.0002
# Hcoef: 13.57

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GY53. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GY53) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.50210  13 33 01.807  -09 47 06.50  24.4r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 02  17.54344  13 33 01.596  -09 47 03.87  24.7r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 02  20.47426  13 32 46.755  -09 43 42.99  24.3r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 03  18.46248  13 28 57.176  -09 03 57.35  24.2r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 03  18.51370  13 28 56.551  -09 03 51.80  23.9r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 03  20.51543  13 28 32.877  -09 00 10.65  24.4r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  11.39801  13 23 44.593  -08 16 48.77  24.1r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  12.35069  13 23 31.438  -08 14 51.64  24.1r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  12.39167  13 23 30.844  -08 14 46.58  23.9r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  12.43732  13 23 30.244  -08 14 41.13  24.5r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  16.38638  13 22 35.667  -08 06 35.81  24.0r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  18.40224  13 22 07.943  -08 02 28.97  24.4r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2015 04  18.45015  13 22 07.256  -08 02 23.15  24.1r 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 02  04.63948  14 08 49.354  -09 26 42.58  25.0w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 02  11.61799  14 08 57.666  -09 21 04.60  24.9w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 03  11.62115  14 06 50.769  -08 43 30.77  24.4w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 03  12.49372  14 06 43.322  -08 42 04.55  25.0w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 04  03.48981  14 02 42.452  -08 02 14.20  24.5w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 04  09.47097  14 01 24.076  -07 50 39.17  24.8w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 04  13.45587  14 00 30.203  -07 42 53.88  24.4w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      
2016 04  14.35804  14 00 17.888  -07 41 08.66  24.4w 15GY53    568  C~2ji7      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.06
     2   0.0001     -3.86    -0.07       1.31    -0.06
     3   0.0081   -281.51     0.04     108.09     0.07
     4   0.0793  -4317.99     0.14    1080.95     0.04
     5   0.0794  -4328.65    -0.01    1082.70    -0.07
     6   0.0849  -4736.36     0.00    1159.19     0.03
     7   0.1448  -9677.24    -0.18    1996.31    -0.01
     8   0.1474  -9902.58    -0.11    2032.63    -0.02
     9   0.1475  -9912.67    -0.33    2034.05    -0.07
    10   0.1477  -9922.99     0.36    2035.81     0.03
    11   0.1585 -10858.12     0.00    2185.53    -0.02
    12   0.1640 -11333.57     0.17    2261.66     0.06
    13   0.1641 -11345.24    -0.02    2263.26    -0.05
    14   0.9641  29514.63    -0.02   12460.84     0.12
    15   0.9832  29516.60    -0.03   12825.52    -0.02
    16   1.0626  26932.78     0.09   14308.84    -0.22
    17   1.0650  26797.09    -0.01   14351.88     0.01
    18   1.1252  22550.94    -0.07   15356.52    -0.01
    19   1.1416  21199.94    -0.20   15601.50    -0.06
    20   1.1525  20276.15     0.18   15757.23     0.13
    21   1.1550  20065.44     0.05   15791.65     0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GY53    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        12.093    12.145    12.041
ecceobj         0.084     0.087     0.081
incobj         24.117    24.117    24.117
qmin            9.365     9.809     9.147
qmax           16.711    14.597    16.362
amean          12.097    12.099    11.622
amin           11.831    10.479    10.021
amax           13.183    12.348    12.809
emean           0.125     0.109     0.160
emin            0.047     0.020     0.079
emax            0.268     0.191     0.281
imean          23.942    24.163    22.843
imin           22.413    22.900    21.174
imax           25.417    25.859    24.273
excite_mean     0.428     0.425     0.422
fracstop        0.011     0.011     0.006
cjmean          3.638     3.639     3.725

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       218.9     202.1     235.3
kozaiamp        177.3     177.5     173.3