Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GY51

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GY51    
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:15 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     38 observations of     38
# Arc:   3.14y
# First observation: 2015/02/20
#  Last observation: 2018/04/11
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000103   0.020244  -0.000011  -0.003128   0.022339   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    12.96 DOF:     70 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.29    0.25
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.371699E-05  2.042321E-02 -2.341420E-06 -3.168376E-03  2.261298E-02  7.002819E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.6336E-13 -1.0611E-13 -3.4881E-15  7.5805E-15  1.2078E-13 -8.0732E-13
 -1.0611E-13  2.2070E-13  1.7035E-14 -3.7918E-14  6.5706E-14  3.8491E-12
 -3.4881E-15  1.7035E-14  1.0369E-13 -5.2826E-14  7.9449E-15  3.6490E-13
  7.5805E-15 -3.7918E-14 -5.2826E-14  4.6517E-14 -1.7866E-14 -8.1275E-13
  1.2078E-13  6.5706E-14  7.9449E-15 -1.7866E-14  1.6280E-13  1.7763E-12
 -8.0732E-13  3.8491E-12  3.6490E-13 -8.1275E-13  1.7763E-12  8.2398E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    2.055310 -157.840509    0.763955    0.022483   -0.622736  2457074.102618
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:           60.94124 +/-     0.044
Argument of Peri:       69.97820 +/-     0.018
Long of Asc Node:       34.17186 +/-     0.001
Inclination:             8.94441 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.31209867 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     47.83764806 +/-    0.0152
Time of Perihelion: 2436612.5596 +/-      11.0
Perihelion:          32.90758189 +/-    0.0224
Aphelion:            62.76771424 +/-    0.0281
Period (y)              330.8742 +/-      0.16
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -41.79773411 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y          -16.19683122 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z            1.58590595 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00013158 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00262046 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00035286 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   44.85424189 +/-    0.0007
Geocenter to KBO     44.22238199 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  7.42

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GY51. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GY51) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  20.60184  13 25 02.340  -06 43 15.59  24.0r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 04  13.34921  13 21 51.225  -06 24 47.79  24.0r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 04  13.39016  13 21 51.055  -06 24 46.79  23.8r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 04  13.45967  13 21 50.742  -06 24 45.21  23.7r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 04  19.39003  13 21 25.120  -06 22 24.08  23.4r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 04  19.50158  13 21 24.620  -06 22 21.53  23.8r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 05  18.25525  13 19 31.375  -06 12 28.08  24.0r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 06  20.26264  13 18 12.773  -06 06 52.92  24.3r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 06  20.30355  13 18 12.711  -06 06 52.72  24.1r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 06  22.30724  13 18 10.424  -06 06 48.15  23.9r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 07  14.25857  13 18 06.220  -06 08 06.40  23.8r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 07  20.24993  13 18 11.843  -06 09 08.50  23.8r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2015 07  20.26062  13 18 11.858  -06 09 08.70  24.4r 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 02  04.54710  13 29 35.923  -07 22 04.13  24.2w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 02  10.53503  13 29 28.041  -07 21 13.58  24.6w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 03  11.53623  13 28 09.451  -07 13 25.19  24.2w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 04  03.42104  13 26 39.033  -07 04 50.80  24.1w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 04  03.42508  13 26 39.015  -07 04 50.72  24.0w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 04  09.40077  13 26 13.394  -07 02 28.24  24.1w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 04  09.40482  13 26 13.378  -07 02 28.17  24.2w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 05  01.35239  13 24 40.218  -06 54 04.46  24.2w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 05  02.29500  13 24 36.408  -06 53 44.40  24.0w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 05  06.30476  13 24 20.492  -06 52 21.16  24.1w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 05  28.26791  13 23 05.362  -06 46 08.46  24.3w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 06  04.34936  13 22 46.756  -06 44 45.01  24.3w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 06  27.26867  13 22 10.639  -06 42 45.99  24.0w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2016 07  06.30443  13 22 07.485  -06 43 07.35  24.3w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2017 02  24.62769  13 33 00.021  -07 53 23.60        15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2017 02  24.63851  13 32 59.993  -07 53 23.41        15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2017 03  28.56493  13 31 10.090  -07 42 57.26  24.1w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2017 03  28.56968  13 31 10.068  -07 42 57.24        15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2017 06  21.28782  13 26 19.767  -07 18 25.45  24.1w 15GY51    568  C~2WaS      
2018 04  11.21469  13 34 16.922  -08 12 56.54  23.8r 15GY51    G83  C~4u1F      
2018 04  11.22358  13 34 16.886  -08 12 56.35  23.9r 15GY51    G83  C~4u1F      
2018 04  11.23290  13 34 16.839  -08 12 56.07  23.9r 15GY51    G83  C~4u1F      
2018 04  11.24700  13 34 16.779  -08 12 55.80  23.8r 15GY51    G83  C~4u1F      
2018 04  11.25538  13 34 16.740  -08 12 55.61  23.8r 15GY51    G83  C~4u1F      
2018 04  11.26378  13 34 16.708  -08 12 55.44  23.8r 15GY51    G83  C~4u1F      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.03
     2   0.1417  -3055.86    -0.24     -30.11    -0.20
     3   0.1418  -3058.58    -0.10     -30.12    -0.12
     4   0.1420  -3063.50    -0.15     -30.39    -0.24
     5   0.1582  -3470.63     0.01     -41.70    -0.02
     6   0.1585  -3478.50    -0.13     -42.12    -0.15
     7   0.2372  -5267.26    -0.08    -121.39    -0.29
     8   0.3276  -6480.79     0.11    -248.71     0.16
     9   0.3277  -6481.72    -0.04    -248.87     0.19
    10   0.3332  -6515.10     0.05    -257.39     0.22
    11   0.3933  -6544.00     0.16    -353.46     0.18
    12   0.4097  -6442.90     0.10    -379.70     0.25
    13   0.4097  -6442.62     0.17    -379.80     0.20
    14   0.9554   4645.95     0.00    -657.34    -0.01
    15   0.9718   4518.25     0.16    -653.58     0.06
    16   1.0539   3258.15     0.01    -649.79    -0.01
    17   1.1165   1817.38     0.05    -669.46     0.00
    18   1.1166   1817.10     0.05    -669.49    -0.01
    19   1.1329   1410.03     0.03    -678.35     0.06
    20   1.1329   1409.78     0.07    -678.37     0.05
    21   1.1930    -65.22    -0.06    -724.81    -0.07
    22   1.1956   -125.35    -0.07    -727.24    -0.07
    23   1.2066   -376.33    -0.03    -737.93     0.07
    24   1.2667  -1553.71    -0.06    -807.71    -0.10
    25   1.2861  -1842.04    -0.02    -833.34    -0.06
    26   1.3488  -2385.78    -0.05    -923.12     0.04
    27   1.3736  -2421.44     0.03    -960.44    -0.13
    28   2.0124   8162.42     0.04   -1289.73    -0.01
    29   2.0124   8161.97     0.03   -1289.71     0.01
    30   2.0998   6410.64    -0.03   -1307.11     0.07
    31   2.0998   6410.33    -0.03   -1307.21    -0.03
    32   2.3318   1852.68    -0.05   -1532.44    -0.05
    33   3.1365   9657.90     0.02   -1963.46     0.01
    34   3.1365   9657.33     0.06   -1963.48     0.01
    35   3.1366   9656.57    -0.05   -1963.47     0.04
    36   3.1366   9655.65    -0.02   -1963.55    -0.01
    37   3.1366   9655.04    -0.05   -1963.58    -0.02
    38   3.1367   9654.53     0.02   -1963.60    -0.02

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GY51    quality flag:3

Type:           2:1E      2:1E      2:1E

axisobj        47.357    47.399    47.316
ecceobj         0.310     0.311     0.309
incobj          8.978     8.978     8.978
qmin           32.015    32.204    32.379
qmax           64.681    64.532    64.374
amean          47.796    47.796    47.796
amin           47.134    47.165    47.093
amax           48.621    48.577    48.659
emean           0.306     0.302     0.304
emin            0.280     0.273     0.287
emax            0.332     0.328     0.323
imean           9.260     9.847     8.449
imin            7.663     8.378     8.215
imax           10.718    11.298     8.716
excite_mean     0.346     0.347     0.338
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.997     2.997     3.004

libcent 0       270.1     269.7     179.6
libamp  0        58.9      59.8     154.3
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       224.4     171.9     174.4
kozaiamp        133.5     128.1     179.9