Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GW54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GW54    
# Created Sat Dec  4 02:13:19 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     31 observations of     31
# Arc:   1.97y
# First observation: 2015/04/11
#  Last observation: 2017/03/31
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000090   0.035347   0.000003  -0.000427   0.030095   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    12.48 DOF:     56 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.30    0.29
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.858081E-05  3.522447E-02 -3.349014E-07 -4.220383E-04  3.059260E-02 -4.050697E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.1309E-13 -3.1041E-13 -5.2568E-16  1.8354E-15 -6.1228E-14 -2.5538E-12
 -3.1041E-13  1.0139E-12  2.0889E-15 -1.1471E-14  2.6620E-13  1.5561E-11
 -5.2568E-16  2.0889E-15  1.9184E-13 -1.8668E-13  3.1730E-15  5.0012E-14
  1.8354E-15 -1.1471E-14 -1.8668E-13  2.4188E-13 -3.9155E-15 -2.3103E-13
 -6.1228E-14  2.6620E-13  3.1730E-15 -3.9155E-15  3.3030E-13  6.1343E-12
 -2.5538E-12  1.5561E-11  5.0012E-14 -2.3103E-13  6.1343E-12  3.1605E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    3.424218 -154.106697    0.082156    0.059588   -0.994055  2457124.023248
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457120.5000  =  2015/04/08
Mean Anomaly:          329.12815 +/-     0.078
Argument of Peri:      146.22625 +/-     0.132
Long of Asc Node:      103.95654 +/-     0.013
Inclination:             3.39431 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.18711027 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     39.56911326 +/-    0.0066
Time of Perihelion: 2464916.8806 +/-      19.5
Perihelion:          32.16532560 +/-    0.0163
Aphelion:            46.97290092 +/-    0.0173
Period (y)              248.9102 +/-      0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -30.28827527 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y          -14.61032309 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z            1.95240474 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00169694 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00268479 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00005927 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   33.68461138 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     32.68764353 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  9.63

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GW54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GW54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 04  11.52247  13 41 02.242  -06 48 40.34  24.6r 15GW54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.38608  13 40 52.017  -06 47 40.73  24.9r 15GW54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.44737  13 40 51.655  -06 47 38.80  24.7r 15GW54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.45145  13 40 51.636  -06 47 38.59  24.6r 15GW54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.45554  13 40 51.611  -06 47 38.66  24.5r 15GW54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.52959  13 40 51.195  -06 47 36.10  24.7r 15GW54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 07  20.28959  13 35 51.789  -06 25 51.37  25.0r 15GW54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 02  04.52611  13 52 32.025  -07 59 50.89  25.3w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 02  04.53313  13 52 32.019  -07 59 50.70  25.2w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 02  04.58829  13 52 31.981  -07 59 50.15  24.9w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 02  04.64815  13 52 31.946  -07 59 49.68  25.1w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  10.51301  13 51 11.356  -07 49 15.57  25.1w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  10.51891  13 51 11.308  -07 49 15.34  25.4w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  11.51188  13 51 07.340  -07 48 49.04  25.5w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  11.51709  13 51 07.325  -07 48 48.85  25.5w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  11.52342  13 51 07.296  -07 48 48.72  25.1w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  11.57169  13 51 07.071  -07 48 47.69  25.3w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  11.58318  13 51 07.060  -07 48 47.37  25.3w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  12.46471  13 51 03.460  -07 48 23.72  25.2w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  12.46991  13 51 03.442  -07 48 23.42  25.4w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  12.57832  13 51 02.983  -07 48 20.64  24.6w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  12.59108  13 51 02.925  -07 48 20.02  25.5w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  12.60530  13 51 02.867  -07 48 19.87  25.2w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 03  12.61050  13 51 02.851  -07 48 19.61  24.9w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 04  13.45991  13 48 23.645  -07 32 16.78  24.9w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 04  14.36210  13 48 18.680  -07 31 48.28  25.6w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 05  02.34774  13 46 39.487  -07 22 43.06  25.2w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 05  07.35110  13 46 12.964  -07 20 23.85  25.1w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 05  29.34365  13 44 30.979  -07 12 03.76  25.0w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2016 06  04.40605  13 44 08.571  -07 10 25.77  24.7w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      
2017 03  31.46528  13 57 16.639  -08 24 00.86  24.4w 15GW54    568  C~2lV9      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.02
     2   0.0051   -163.54     0.19       0.71     0.10
     3   0.0053   -169.27    -0.05       0.57    -0.02
     4   0.0053   -169.61    -0.02       0.66     0.08
     5   0.0053   -169.93     0.02       0.46    -0.12
     6   0.0055   -176.63    -0.05       0.62     0.05
     7   0.2731  -4808.61    -0.01    -396.47    -0.14
     8   0.8186  11119.66     0.17    -321.16    -0.08
     9   0.8186  11119.51     0.09    -321.02     0.03
    10   0.8188  11118.78    -0.06    -320.70     0.07
    11   0.8190  11118.13    -0.07    -320.45     0.01
    12   0.9144   9770.24     0.26    -152.06    -0.04
    13   0.9144   9769.49    -0.10    -152.10    -0.09
    14   0.9172   9704.89    -0.07    -148.45     0.03
    15   0.9172   9704.61    -0.00    -148.35     0.12
    16   0.9172   9704.16    -0.03    -148.39     0.07
    17   0.9173   9700.66    -0.28    -148.61    -0.30
    18   0.9173   9700.39     0.23    -148.37    -0.09
    19   0.9198   9641.86    -0.04    -145.26    -0.10
    20   0.9198   9641.50    -0.04    -145.07     0.07
    21   0.9201   9634.12    -0.01    -144.90    -0.06
    22   0.9201   9633.09    -0.17    -144.62     0.18
    23   0.9201   9632.23    -0.05    -144.79    -0.03
    24   0.9202   9631.91    -0.01    -144.63     0.11
    25   1.0074   7073.27    -0.15     -87.15    -0.07
    26   1.0098   6994.04     0.18     -86.86     0.12
    27   1.0591   5419.86     0.29    -104.46     0.10
    28   1.0728   5001.34     0.01    -115.59     0.01
    29   1.1330   3404.75    -0.08    -192.29    -0.04
    30   1.1496   3058.23    -0.09    -220.46    -0.01
    31   1.9711  15603.94     0.00    -186.08     0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GW54    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.178    39.190    39.167
ecceobj         0.182     0.182     0.181
incobj          3.393     3.393     3.393
qmin           31.301    31.283    31.321
qmax           48.264    48.254    48.327
amean          39.457    39.457    39.456
amin           39.001    38.987    38.993
amax           39.990    39.981    40.008
emean           0.190     0.190     0.190
emin            0.173     0.173     0.172
emax            0.207     0.207     0.208
imean           1.843     1.843     1.841
imin            1.378     1.385     1.369
imax            2.380     2.383     2.373
excite_mean     0.193     0.193     0.193
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.009     3.009     3.009

libcent 0       180.0     180.8     181.0
libamp  0        93.4      93.1      94.8
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       199.0     199.0     198.8
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     179.9