Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GU54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GU54    
# Created Sun Apr 21 01:10:05 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   28 observations of   28
# Arc:   2.25y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2017/05/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000105   0.022749   0.000004  -0.002073   0.024192   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     6.49 DOF:   50 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.25    0.19
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.543120E-05  2.270636E-02 -6.058369E-07 -2.066800E-03  2.427696E-02  2.254540E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.9941E-13  8.0002E-15  2.0502E-15 -1.6452E-14  1.7145E-13  5.0230E-12
  8.0002E-15  4.2788E-13  9.0485E-15 -5.5977E-14  2.9891E-13  1.7052E-11
  2.0502E-15  9.0485E-15  1.1310E-13 -9.8658E-14  8.1511E-15  6.0863E-13
 -1.6452E-14 -5.5977E-14 -9.8658E-14  1.6603E-13 -5.5046E-14 -3.6444E-12
  1.7145E-13  2.9891E-13  8.1511E-15 -5.5046E-14  3.9643E-13  1.6782E-11
  5.0230E-12  1.7052E-11  6.0863E-13 -3.6444E-12  1.6782E-11  1.1098E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    2.192739 -154.861932    0.824642    0.020770   -0.538827  2457071.093388
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:          119.78643 +/-     0.538
Argument of Peri:       28.21458 +/-     0.520
Long of Asc Node:       46.76747 +/-     0.004
Inclination:             5.57722 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.09786799 +/-    0.0010
Semi-Major Axis:     39.55300774 +/-    0.0092
Time of Perihelion: 2426838.0853 +/-     135.3
Perihelion:          35.68203422 +/-    0.0419
Aphelion:            43.42398126 +/-    0.0423
Period (y)              248.7582 +/-      0.09
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -38.10386286 +/-    0.0010
Ecliptic Y          -16.96780256 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z            1.57600639 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00084607 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00243548 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00022309 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   41.74080119 +/-    0.0009
Geocenter to KBO     41.19131223 +/-    0.0011
# Hcoef:  8.51

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GU54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GU54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.59261  13 36 24.298  -07 41 10.52  24.7r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 02  17.63360  13 36 24.232  -07 41 09.75  24.6r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 02  20.62674  13 36 17.570  -07 40 26.15  24.6r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 03  18.57107  13 34 53.565  -07 31 49.91  24.7r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 03  18.61845  13 34 53.374  -07 31 48.89  24.6r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 03  20.57526  13 34 45.468  -07 31 01.92  24.6r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  11.50958  13 33 08.453  -07 21 43.41  24.4r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.37381  13 32 59.817  -07 20 54.74  24.6r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.41479  13 32 59.618  -07 20 53.67  24.7r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.51735  13 32 59.133  -07 20 50.99  24.4r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  19.41451  13 32 31.763  -07 18 18.55  24.4r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 05  18.33721  13 30 27.125  -07 07 15.39  24.4r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 06  20.27906  13 28 57.012  -07 00 29.94  24.6r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 06  20.31989  13 28 56.946  -07 00 29.73  24.3r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 06  22.32371  13 28 54.053  -07 00 21.49  24.7r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 07  20.26893  13 28 49.664  -07 02 01.44  24.5r 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 02  04.59812  13 41 26.689  -08 18 14.44  25.1w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 02  10.61712  13 41 20.009  -08 17 25.17  24.8w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 03  11.56297  13 40 03.016  -08 09 23.67  24.9w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 03  11.60082  13 40 02.872  -08 09 22.93  24.2w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 04  03.45340  13 38 28.494  -08 00 17.07  24.9w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 04  09.43454  13 38 01.157  -07 57 43.41  25.0w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  02.32746  13 36 16.076  -07 48 10.69  25.6w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  06.33724  13 35 58.560  -07 46 38.42  25.1w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  28.30028  13 34 34.498  -07 39 34.75  24.5w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 06  04.37773  13 34 13.132  -07 37 55.69  24.5w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 06  27.33366  13 33 29.316  -07 35 12.11  24.8w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      
2017 05  18.26658  13 39 56.397  -08 17 42.10  24.6w 15GU54    568  C~2lV8      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.15
  2   0.0001     -1.19     0.12       0.36     0.16
  3   0.0083   -109.30    -0.02       4.99     0.03
  4   0.0793  -1460.55     0.02      31.46    -0.03
  5   0.0795  -1463.56     0.08      31.38    -0.12
  6   0.0848  -1590.17    -0.01      32.30     0.07
  7   0.1449  -3137.66     0.07      26.13    -0.07
  8   0.1500  -3275.07    -0.00      24.52     0.03
  9   0.1501  -3278.22    -0.08      24.44     0.01
 10   0.1504  -3285.91    -0.09      24.30     0.02
 11   0.1665  -3720.78    -0.03      17.45     0.08
 12   0.2457  -5690.62     0.17     -44.17     0.01
 13   0.3359  -7088.61     0.03    -159.18     0.07
 14   0.3360  -7089.61     0.01    -159.34     0.08
 15   0.3415  -7132.75    -0.11    -167.50    -0.04
 16   0.4180  -7156.84    -0.04    -284.54    -0.12
 17   0.9637   4993.13     0.04    -447.37    -0.02
 18   0.9802   4882.82     0.06    -437.16    -0.25
 19   1.0622   3642.53    -0.09    -400.67     0.02
 20   1.0623   3640.27    -0.12    -400.75    -0.07
 21   1.1249   2135.81     0.05    -398.91    -0.00
 22   1.1413   1701.60    -0.00    -402.83     0.11
 23   1.2039     38.84    -0.00    -435.85     0.10
 24   1.2149   -237.21     0.10    -444.53     0.04
 25   1.2750  -1555.25    -0.03    -504.72    -0.04
 26   1.2944  -1887.17    -0.11    -528.25    -0.06
 27   1.3573  -2553.48     0.09    -613.57     0.19
 28   2.2469   3731.05     0.01    -901.01    -0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GU54    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.227    39.256    39.200
ecceobj         0.102     0.104     0.100
incobj          5.594     5.594     5.594
qmin           35.028    34.942    34.996
qmax           44.188    44.265    44.153
amean          39.461    39.461    39.461
amin           39.140    39.147    39.132
amax           39.810    39.816    39.821
emean           0.093     0.095     0.092
emin            0.075     0.077     0.075
emax            0.111     0.112     0.110
imean           4.242     4.255     4.200
imin            3.504     3.531     3.416
imax            5.125     5.120     5.119
excite_mean     0.119     0.121     0.118
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.036     3.036     3.036

libcent 0       180.0     180.6     179.6
libamp  0        26.8      27.5      41.1
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       180.4     181.3     181.2
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     180.0