Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GS54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GS54    
# Created Tue Nov 30 02:13:18 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     39 observations of     39
# Arc:   3.33y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2018/06/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000091   0.041695   0.000015   0.001151   0.033389   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     4.73 DOF:     72 RMS:  0.06
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.17    0.21
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.988650E-05  4.191871E-02  5.458652E-07  1.163726E-03  3.339057E-02  3.864382E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.4755E-13 -6.4872E-14 -4.3245E-16 -1.7278E-15  7.2154E-14 -6.0137E-13
 -6.4872E-14  3.3931E-13 -5.4257E-15  1.2499E-14  1.3186E-13  3.2321E-12
 -4.3245E-16 -5.4257E-15  7.6342E-14 -3.3074E-14 -3.5450E-15 -5.2397E-14
 -1.7278E-15  1.2499E-14 -3.3074E-14  2.8413E-14  4.7344E-15  1.3148E-13
  7.2154E-14  1.3186E-13 -3.5450E-15  4.7344E-15  1.6382E-13  1.0295E-12
 -6.0137E-13  3.2321E-12 -5.2397E-14  1.3148E-13  1.0295E-12  3.4612E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    3.222332 -157.880492    0.795314    0.032833   -0.580689  2457071.072988
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:           11.87841 +/-     0.021
Argument of Peri:       42.23534 +/-     0.037
Long of Asc Node:      138.49708 +/-     0.003
Inclination:             3.57336 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.24265742 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.85623317 +/-    0.0031
Time of Perihelion: 2454038.0161 +/-       5.3
Perihelion:          30.18482231 +/-    0.0042
Aphelion:            49.52764403 +/-    0.0052
Period (y)              251.6243 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -28.54158621 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Y          -10.74117456 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z            1.68344677 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00100245 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00330682 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00011317 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   30.54224889 +/-    0.0003
Geocenter to KBO     29.94857865 +/-    0.0004
# Hcoef:  8.38

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GS54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GS54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.57221  13 26 37.792  -05 37 20.19  23.3r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 02  17.61316  13 26 37.681  -05 37 19.21  23.0r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 02  20.60593  13 26 29.056  -05 36 08.51  23.3r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 03  18.55062  13 24 39.644  -05 23 00.87  23.0r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 03  18.59161  13 24 39.426  -05 22 59.43  23.2r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 03  20.55443  13 24 29.117  -05 21 50.45  23.3r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  11.48904  13 22 23.891  -05 08 30.79  22.8r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.35330  13 22 12.857  -05 07 22.95  22.9r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.39426  13 22 12.613  -05 07 21.48  23.2r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.46376  13 22 12.192  -05 07 19.00  23.5r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  13.46849  13 22 12.162  -05 07 18.87  23.4r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  19.39411  13 21 37.153  -05 03 47.18  23.3r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 04  19.50579  13 21 36.481  -05 03 43.19  22.8r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 05  18.25936  13 19 03.148  -04 49 13.49  23.1r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 05  18.26844  13 19 03.105  -04 49 13.25  23.0r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 06  22.31136  13 17 21.403  -04 41 47.83  23.2r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2015 07  20.25407  13 17 37.534  -04 46 14.34  23.1r 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 02  04.56329  13 36 03.791  -06 30 21.97  23.4w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 03  11.53218  13 34 19.560  -06 16 25.40  23.2w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 04  03.43317  13 32 18.132  -06 03 14.04        15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 04  09.41297  13 31 43.099  -05 59 37.99  23.4w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  01.34835  13 29 34.982  -05 47 05.44  23.4w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  01.39731  13 29 34.699  -05 47 03.89  23.2w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  02.29095  13 29 29.734  -05 46 35.92  23.5w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  06.30070  13 29 07.800  -05 44 33.72  23.4w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 05  28.26386  13 27 25.115  -05 35 37.66  23.3w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 06  04.34531  13 27 00.212  -05 33 42.84  23.6w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 06  27.27676  13 26 15.053  -05 31 22.65  23.7w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2016 07  06.31265  13 26 13.564  -05 32 09.85  23.3w 15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2017 02  27.63752  13 44 13.722  -07 11 00.54        15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2017 02  27.65749  13 44 13.650  -07 11 00.15        15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2017 03  28.58374  13 42 01.919  -06 56 09.11        15GS54    568  C~2lV8      
2018 06  17.03148  13 44 27.77   -07 08 47.2   23.9V 15GS54    W84  C~30Ln      
2018 06  17.07481  13 44 27.64   -07 08 46.8         15GS54    W84  C~30Ln      
2018 06  17.07999  13 44 27.63   -07 08 46.9   24.1V 15GS54    W84  C~30Ln      
2018 06  17.97531  13 44 25.50   -07 08 39.6         15GS54    W84  C~30Ln      
2018 06  18.02054  13 44 25.38   -07 08 39.3         15GS54    W84  C~30Ln      
2018 06  18.05377  13 44 25.31   -07 08 39.1         15GS54    W84  C~30Ln      
2018 06  18.09717  13 44 25.20   -07 08 38.8         15GS54    W84  C~30Ln      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.00
     2   0.0001     -1.90     0.04       0.30     0.07
     3   0.0083   -147.68    -0.02      18.29     0.02
     4   0.0793  -1956.97     0.04     144.23     0.01
     5   0.0795  -1960.53     0.03     144.36     0.02
     6   0.0848  -2129.11     0.03     151.29     0.04
     7   0.1449  -4163.30    -0.05     198.84    -0.01
     8   0.1500  -4341.63    -0.07     200.50     0.10
     9   0.1501  -4345.56    -0.02     200.51     0.10
    10   0.1503  -4352.33    -0.01     200.47     0.07
    11   0.1503  -4352.79    -0.02     200.43     0.02
    12   0.1665  -4917.35    -0.00     202.31    -0.01
    13   0.1668  -4928.16    -0.07     202.28     0.03
    14   0.2456  -7380.86     0.08     155.49    -0.03
    15   0.2456  -7381.55     0.05     155.47    -0.01
    16   0.3415  -8960.67     0.02       0.95    -0.03
    17   0.4180  -8636.83    -0.04    -156.30    -0.00
    18   0.9637   9026.55     0.07     151.41    -0.01
    19   1.0622   7271.53     0.03     360.17     0.01
    20   1.1249   5294.69    -0.05     430.63    -0.10
    21   1.1412   4728.93     0.02     439.15    -0.03
    22   1.2013   2673.84    -0.05     433.95    -0.05
    23   1.2014   2669.34    -0.10     433.83    -0.06
    24   1.2039   2590.14     0.01     432.48    -0.09
    25   1.2149   2240.76     0.03     425.18    -0.04
    26   1.2750    618.33     0.08     356.72     0.00
    27   1.2944    230.45     0.09     325.82     0.01
    28   1.3572   -447.75    -0.02     206.39     0.04
    29   1.3819   -450.92    -0.05     154.31    -0.06
    30   2.0289  16740.94    -0.03     539.81    -0.05
    31   2.0290  16739.79    -0.03     539.79    -0.17
    32   2.1082  14576.73     0.01     658.60    -0.09
    33   3.3277  16888.51     0.21     740.52     0.12
    34   3.3279  16886.55    -0.07     740.19     0.05
    35   3.3279  16886.44     0.02     740.04    -0.06
    36   3.3303  16854.03    -0.03     735.34     0.13
    37   3.3305  16852.25    -0.14     734.98     0.04
    38   3.3305  16851.20     0.04     734.78     0.05
    39   3.3307  16849.55    -0.01     734.47    -0.00

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GS54    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.450    39.463    39.437
ecceobj         0.235     0.235     0.234
incobj          3.579     3.579     3.579
qmin           29.518    29.530    29.535
qmax           50.190    50.216    50.223
amean          39.457    39.457    39.457
amin           38.875    38.849    38.873
amax           40.119    40.155    40.132
emean           0.237     0.237     0.237
emin            0.220     0.220     0.221
emax            0.253     0.252     0.253
imean           2.955     2.989     2.902
imin            2.165     2.171     2.158
imax            3.765     4.045     3.629
excite_mean     0.242     0.243     0.242
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.984     2.984     2.984

libcent 0       180.1     179.4     179.1
libamp  0       132.4     134.7     130.1
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       165.3     149.2     144.8
kozaiamp        179.7     180.0     179.8