The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GR54
# Created Wed Apr 24 01:17:06 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 39 observations of 39
# Arc: 2.11y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
# Last observation: 2017/03/29
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000160 0.037028 0.000026 -0.006302 0.031366 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 3.30 DOF: 72 RMS: 0.05
# Min/Max residuals: -0.17 0.20
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.859345E-05 3.663818E-02 -2.989840E-06 -6.218936E-03 3.134592E-02 -4.563676E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.5750E-13 -4.0275E-14 1.3369E-15 -9.0379E-15 9.4801E-14 8.9065E-13
-4.0275E-14 3.0696E-13 1.0037E-14 -5.1014E-14 1.4671E-13 4.9200E-12
1.3369E-15 1.0037E-14 9.5974E-14 -8.2498E-14 6.6379E-15 2.5120E-13
-9.0379E-15 -5.1014E-14 -8.2498E-14 1.2264E-13 -3.6449E-14 -1.2728E-12
9.4801E-14 1.4671E-13 6.6379E-15 -3.6449E-14 1.8798E-13 3.5383E-12
8.9065E-13 4.9200E-12 2.5120E-13 -1.2728E-12 3.5383E-12 1.2272E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.800009 -157.912701 0.794987 0.028574 -0.581362 2457071.072988
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 329.38852 +/- 0.032
Argument of Peri: 211.66790 +/- 0.061
Long of Asc Node: 36.51870 +/- 0.001
Inclination: 9.97770 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.22640755 +/- 0.0003
Semi-Major Axis: 39.46707069 +/- 0.0052
Time of Perihelion: 2464771.2431 +/- 7.9
Perihelion: 30.53142785 +/- 0.0107
Aphelion: 48.40271354 +/- 0.0118
Period (y) 247.9480 +/- 0.05
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -30.36664233 +/- 0.0004
Ecliptic Y -11.46363926 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic Z 1.55832019 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00154397 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00283109 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00056191 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 32.49578978 +/- 0.0004
Geocenter to KBO 31.90208346 +/- 0.0004
# Hcoef: 8.57
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GR54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GR54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.57221 13 25 52.843 -06 00 09.49 23.8r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 02 17.61316 13 25 52.729 -06 00 08.75 23.8r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 02 20.60593 13 25 43.981 -05 59 13.84 23.8r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 18.55062 13 23 55.615 -05 48 31.67 23.5r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 18.59161 13 23 55.399 -05 48 30.45 23.6r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 20.55443 13 23 45.301 -05 47 32.79 23.5r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 11.48904 13 21 43.051 -05 36 17.36 23.6r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.35330 13 21 32.286 -05 35 19.73 23.5r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.39426 13 21 32.047 -05 35 18.41 23.7r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.46376 13 21 31.645 -05 35 16.30 23.7r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.46849 13 21 31.614 -05 35 16.21 23.5r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 19.50579 13 20 56.837 -05 32 12.83 23.3r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 05 18.25936 13 18 26.841 -05 19 58.19 23.7r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 05 18.26844 13 18 26.802 -05 19 58.14 23.7r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 06 20.26671 13 16 46.868 -05 14 21.08 23.9r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 06 20.30767 13 16 46.801 -05 14 21.07 23.5r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 06 22.31136 13 16 44.198 -05 14 23.09 23.1r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 07 14.26266 13 16 44.696 -05 17 43.09 24.0r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2015 07 20.25407 13 16 54.183 -05 19 34.18 23.8r 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 04.55115 13 33 39.946 -07 09 27.34 23.9w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 04.56329 13 33 39.932 -07 09 27.30 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 10.53908 13 33 31.294 -07 08 31.43 24.1w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 10.55122 13 33 31.271 -07 08 31.24 24.2w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 10.60087 13 33 31.178 -07 08 30.73 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 03 11.53218 13 31 52.175 -06 58 51.66 23.8w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 03 11.54027 13 31 52.130 -06 58 51.46 23.8w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 04 03.42104 13 29 52.056 -06 47 50.18 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 04 09.40077 13 29 17.612 -06 44 46.34 23.6w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 01.35239 13 27 11.889 -06 34 01.10 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 02.29500 13 27 06.744 -06 33 35.68 23.7w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 06.30476 13 26 45.249 -06 31 50.96 23.7w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 28.26791 13 25 04.317 -06 24 15.74 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 28.27195 13 25 04.301 -06 24 15.66 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 06 04.34936 13 24 39.642 -06 22 41.66 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 06 04.35340 13 24 39.628 -06 22 41.64 23.8w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 06 27.26867 13 23 53.674 -06 21 11.45 23.9w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2016 07 06.30443 13 23 51.098 -06 22 12.03 24.0w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2017 02 24.64707 13 40 23.482 -08 11 51.08 15GR54 568 C~2lV8 2017 03 29.45461 13 37 55.388 -07 58 27.28 23.9w 15GR54 568 C~2lV8
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.03
2 0.0001 -1.85 0.02 0.06 0.01
3 0.0083 -143.41 -0.00 2.69 0.05
4 0.0793 -1883.20 0.03 -0.95 -0.01
5 0.0795 -1886.65 -0.02 -1.01 -0.01
6 0.0848 -2047.99 0.03 -3.46 0.01
7 0.1449 -3993.42 0.05 -55.11 -0.06
8 0.1500 -4164.10 -0.10 -61.47 -0.03
9 0.1501 -4167.90 -0.09 -61.57 0.03
10 0.1503 -4174.26 0.02 -61.85 0.05
11 0.1503 -4174.72 -0.01 -61.94 -0.02
12 0.1668 -4725.12 -0.06 -85.17 0.00
13 0.2456 -7079.26 0.01 -239.38 0.11
14 0.2456 -7079.82 0.09 -239.55 -0.00
15 0.3359 -8592.41 0.04 -485.28 -0.01
16 0.3360 -8593.35 -0.03 -485.64 -0.02
17 0.3415 -8628.71 -0.01 -502.08 -0.10
18 0.4016 -8546.83 0.03 -684.92 0.05
19 0.4180 -8373.57 0.02 -734.94 -0.02
20 0.9637 8007.25 0.03 -1297.95 0.04
21 0.9637 8007.04 0.05 -1297.98 -0.00
22 0.9801 7866.74 0.03 -1293.18 0.00
23 0.9801 7866.35 0.01 -1293.13 0.05
24 0.9802 7864.87 0.04 -1293.16 0.02
25 1.0622 6279.51 0.01 -1296.01 -0.06
26 1.0622 6278.81 -0.08 -1296.07 -0.11
27 1.1248 4371.53 -0.02 -1339.79 0.00
28 1.1412 3826.62 -0.02 -1358.18 0.06
29 1.2013 1847.21 -0.05 -1450.77 -0.04
30 1.2039 1766.57 -0.06 -1455.53 -0.01
31 1.2149 1430.21 0.04 -1476.80 -0.07
32 1.2750 -135.79 0.04 -1611.50 -0.01
33 1.2750 -136.04 0.03 -1611.52 0.01
34 1.2944 -512.28 0.01 -1660.63 0.03
35 1.2944 -512.48 0.01 -1660.69 0.01
36 1.3571 -1182.09 -0.00 -1831.35 0.20
37 1.3819 -1195.24 -0.06 -1901.87 -0.17
38 2.0207 14981.75 -0.02 -2596.40 0.02
39 2.1106 12630.03 0.02 -2647.43 -0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GR54 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.089 39.097 39.080 ecceobj 0.222 0.222 0.221 incobj 10.007 10.007 10.007 qmin 29.163 29.127 29.288 qmax 50.502 50.419 50.323 amean 39.456 39.456 39.456 amin 38.926 38.927 38.917 amax 40.073 40.055 40.104 emean 0.242 0.234 0.229 emin 0.216 0.201 0.198 emax 0.261 0.261 0.257 imean 8.271 8.945 9.337 imin 7.322 7.223 7.607 imax 9.615 10.235 11.145 excite_mean 0.282 0.281 0.282 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.961 2.961 2.961 libcent 0 178.7 180.3 181.7 libamp 0 124.6 109.2 127.1 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 185.6 263.1 287.3 kozaiamp 180.0 61.0 68.2