Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GP54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GP54    
# Created Fri Dec  3 02:13:15 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     35 observations of     35
# Arc:   2.35y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2017/06/26
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000199   0.033282  -0.000022  -0.006379   0.030144   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    11.52 DOF:     64 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.47    0.18
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.680957E-05  3.341551E-02 -3.517457E-06 -6.457999E-03  3.038222E-02  9.917502E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.6384E-13 -1.5256E-14  2.1958E-15 -1.2269E-14  1.1158E-13  9.9125E-13
 -1.5256E-14  3.4542E-13  1.6648E-14 -7.7138E-14  1.8392E-13  6.1447E-12
  2.1958E-15  1.6648E-14  9.1085E-14 -7.0197E-14  1.0690E-14  4.0137E-13
 -1.2269E-14 -7.7138E-14 -7.0197E-14  1.1174E-13 -5.2009E-14 -1.8532E-12
  1.1158E-13  1.8392E-13  1.0690E-14 -5.2009E-14  2.2134E-13  4.1594E-12
  9.9125E-13  6.1447E-12  4.0137E-13 -1.8532E-12  4.1594E-12  1.4757E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.417835 -152.529098    0.846534    0.012620   -0.504004  2457071.023648
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:           43.84450 +/-     0.018
Argument of Peri:       98.10755 +/-     0.018
Long of Asc Node:       33.28714 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            10.89802 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.29830624 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     39.62385255 +/-    0.0100
Time of Perihelion: 2445975.0193 +/-       1.7
Perihelion:          27.80380991 +/-    0.0162
Aphelion:            51.44389519 +/-    0.0196
Period (y)              249.4269 +/-      0.09
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -30.03442541 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y          -14.65988895 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z            0.81428344 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00057994 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00309601 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00055957 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   33.43115480 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     32.91398664 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef:  8.74

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GP54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GP54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.52287  13 44 04.252  -09 14 58.64  24.1r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 02  17.56399  13 44 04.141  -09 14 58.22  24.0r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 02  20.59770  13 43 56.664  -09 14 20.23  24.0r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 03  18.50144  13 42 18.528  -09 05 53.08  24.3r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 03  18.54235  13 42 18.331  -09 05 52.32  23.5r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 03  20.54594  13 42 08.618  -09 05 01.91  24.1r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  11.48071  13 40 10.503  -08 54 55.21  24.0r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.38760  13 40 05.346  -08 54 28.90  23.9r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.43323  13 40 05.071  -08 54 27.45  23.6r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.47547  13 40 04.832  -08 54 26.27  24.0r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  18.44608  13 39 30.639  -08 51 33.85  22.6r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  18.49382  13 39 30.397  -08 51 32.21  23.5r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 05  17.25497  13 36 55.241  -08 38 52.76  24.2r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 05  25.39688  13 36 18.329  -08 36 03.59  24.2r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 05  25.45500  13 36 18.073  -08 36 02.56  24.2r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 06  21.34643  13 34 54.509  -08 30 37.00  24.0r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 06  22.30309  13 34 52.804  -08 30 32.84  24.3r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 07  12.29701  13 34 39.296  -08 31 19.53  23.3r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 07  19.28682  13 34 44.853  -08 32 35.56  24.4r 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 02  04.63543  13 51 03.135  -10 17 17.93  24.5w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 02  11.61375  13 50 55.854  -10 16 50.09  24.4w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 03  11.61710  13 49 31.155  -10 10 01.89  24.4w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 03  12.48956  13 49 27.435  -10 09 43.45  24.6w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  03.48576  13 47 38.290  -10 00 38.04  24.1w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  09.46692  13 47 05.044  -09 57 52.14  24.2w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  02.35585  13 44 55.682  -09 47 14.27  24.3w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  07.35921  13 44 28.599  -09 45 03.45  24.1w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  29.33148  13 42 44.457  -09 36 58.75  24.4w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 06  04.39391  13 42 21.493  -09 35 19.45  24.3w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 06  27.31561  13 41 24.886  -09 31 59.80  24.2w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 07  07.31185  13 41 16.897  -09 32 09.14  24.5w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 02  27.65350  13 56 54.491  -11 13 29.52        15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 03  30.51590  13 54 43.036  -11 03 03.67  24.2w 15GP54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 03  31.45116  13 54 38.131  -11 02 39.67  24.0w 15GP54    568  C~2lV8      
2017 06  26.27262  13 48 03.034  -10 32 15.78  24.5w 15GP54    568  C~2lV8      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.03
     2   0.0001     -1.68    -0.03      -0.20    -0.08
     3   0.0084   -118.65    -0.08      -4.31    -0.04
     4   0.0793  -1657.15    -0.07     -51.34     0.09
     5   0.0795  -1660.15     0.06     -51.68    -0.13
     6   0.0849  -1812.53     0.18     -56.24     0.02
     7   0.1450  -3663.90     0.04    -119.12     0.06
     8   0.1475  -3744.70     0.02    -122.09     0.09
     9   0.1476  -3749.02    -0.17    -122.21     0.16
    10   0.1477  -3752.75    -0.06    -122.38     0.15
    11   0.1641  -4287.79    -0.30    -144.14    -0.47
    12   0.1642  -4291.73     0.11    -143.90    -0.03
    13   0.2429  -6712.72     0.10    -266.92     0.07
    14   0.2652  -7284.89    -0.00    -307.60     0.06
    15   0.2654  -7288.81    -0.03    -308.02    -0.04
    16   0.3390  -8563.86     0.02    -454.64     0.04
    17   0.3416  -8588.98    -0.03    -459.96     0.17
    18   0.3964  -8759.00    -0.02    -576.39    -0.06
    19   0.4155  -8654.39     0.14    -617.29    -0.13
    20   0.9640   7119.38    -0.00   -1296.54    -0.07
    21   0.9831   7008.88     0.09   -1308.39     0.01
    22   1.0625   5693.71     0.07   -1368.19     0.08
    23   1.0649   5635.77    -0.09   -1370.38    -0.03
    24   1.1252   3934.27    -0.03   -1431.70     0.08
    25   1.1415   3416.07    -0.03   -1451.11     0.08
    26   1.2042   1402.23    -0.10   -1536.08    -0.01
    27   1.2179    981.54     0.08   -1556.87    -0.07
    28   1.2781   -629.87     0.10   -1655.37     0.02
    29   1.2947   -982.54    -0.01   -1684.47     0.00
    30   1.3574  -1835.78    -0.04   -1798.79     0.05
    31   1.3848  -1942.72    -0.03   -1849.99    -0.02
    32   2.0291  13166.00    -0.01   -2642.51    -0.05
    33   2.1136  11127.35    -0.00   -2730.80    -0.13
    34   2.1162  11051.08     0.01   -2733.56     0.05
    35   2.3539   4950.06    -0.01   -3076.93     0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GP54    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.251    39.282    39.221
ecceobj         0.294     0.295     0.293
incobj         10.929    10.929    10.929
qmin           27.344    27.318    27.366
qmax           52.288    52.355    52.309
amean          39.455    39.455    39.455
amin           38.918    38.920    38.930
amax           40.055    40.078    40.104
emean           0.290     0.291     0.290
emin            0.272     0.274     0.270
emax            0.307     0.307     0.306
imean          10.737    10.745    10.726
imin           10.049    10.085    10.025
imax           11.345    11.393    11.305
excite_mean     0.345     0.345     0.344
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.915     2.915     2.916

libcent 0       179.8     177.7     180.4
libamp  0       104.1     111.4     105.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       189.5     190.2     189.0
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0