Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GN54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GN54    
# Created Mon Apr 22 01:10:04 2019
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   36 observations of   36
# Arc:   2.35y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2017/06/25
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000101   0.026784  -0.000001   0.000505   0.026298   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     9.78 DOF:   66 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.25    0.28
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.569320E-05  2.651017E-02 -4.515681E-07  4.981702E-04  2.621544E-02 -3.886223E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.6099E-13 -1.3061E-15 -6.1476E-16  1.6535E-15  1.1533E-13  1.4756E-12
 -1.3061E-15  2.8177E-13 -1.9141E-15  6.7643E-15  1.7592E-13  6.1511E-12
 -6.1476E-16 -1.9141E-15  8.7867E-14 -6.0324E-14 -1.7136E-15 -5.6917E-14
  1.6535E-15  6.7643E-15 -6.0324E-14  7.6360E-14  5.4570E-15  2.0380E-13
  1.1533E-13  1.7592E-13 -1.7136E-15  5.4570E-15  2.2538E-13  4.9300E-12
  1.4756E-12  6.1511E-12 -5.6917E-14  2.0380E-13  4.9300E-12  1.8547E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    0.567600 -153.370042    0.839159    0.005262   -0.516315  2457071.011078
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:          288.23066 +/-     0.042
Argument of Peri:      117.92834 +/-     0.019
Long of Asc Node:      178.21785 +/-     0.013
Inclination:             1.22596 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.16622030 +/-    0.0005
Semi-Major Axis:     39.68496979 +/-    0.0072
Time of Perihelion: 2475274.7982 +/-       9.6
Perihelion:          33.08852202 +/-    0.0213
Aphelion:            46.28141756 +/-    0.0221
Period (y)              250.0042 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -34.93777559 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y          -16.57820440 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z            0.37785930 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00160057 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00229836 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00004810 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   38.67334743 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     38.14546363 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  8.83

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GN54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GN54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.51030  13 39 38.995  -09 44 28.01  24.5r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 02  17.55169  13 39 38.901  -09 44 27.62  24.5r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 02  20.48249  13 39 32.381  -09 43 47.10  23.8r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 03  18.48843  13 38 05.372  -09 35 03.03  24.5r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 03  18.53000  13 38 05.200  -09 35 01.83  24.6r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 03  20.53205  13 37 56.691  -09 34 11.35  24.5r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  11.46838  13 36 13.972  -09 24 07.00  24.3r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.37527  13 36 09.509  -09 23 40.58  24.4r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.41621  13 36 09.311  -09 23 39.53  24.9r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.46324  13 36 09.070  -09 23 38.15  24.3r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  18.43380  13 35 39.520  -09 20 45.53  25.0r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  18.48152  13 35 39.278  -09 20 43.97  24.7r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 05  16.28057  13 33 29.689  -09 08 12.10  24.2r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 05  25.38456  13 32 54.100  -09 04 47.67  24.4r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 05  25.44235  13 32 53.887  -09 04 46.57  24.7r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 06  21.33417  13 31 42.922  -08 58 05.46  24.6r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 06  22.29068  13 31 41.495  -08 57 57.71  24.5r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 07  12.28470  13 31 31.042  -08 57 09.48  24.5r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 07  19.27455  13 31 36.325  -08 57 44.91  24.9r 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 02  04.61430  13 45 46.557  -10 17 40.08  25.0w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 02  04.62644  13 45 46.552  -10 17 39.99  25.6w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 02  04.63139  13 45 46.541  -10 17 40.12  25.1w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  03.47768  13 42 42.675  -09 59 22.23  24.6w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  09.45884  13 42 13.510  -09 56 33.49  24.6w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  02.34368  13 40 20.739  -09 45 45.70  22.4w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  07.34704  13 39 57.225  -09 43 31.46  24.6w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  28.31649  13 38 30.876  -09 35 21.24  26.0w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  29.32340  13 38 27.370  -09 35 01.86  24.6w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 06  04.38582  13 38 07.731  -09 33 11.72  25.1w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 06  27.31141  13 37 20.129  -09 28 51.41  25.2w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 07  07.30770  13 37 14.102  -09 28 23.56  24.8w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 02  27.64150  13 50 58.976  -10 44 26.69        15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 02  27.64549  13 50 58.948  -10 44 26.58        15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 03  30.49241  13 49 00.627  -10 32 59.74  25.0w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 05  24.25622  13 44 41.508  -10 08 36.96  24.7w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 06  25.27303  13 43 13.217  -10 00 34.72  25.0w 15GN54    568  C~2lV7      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.16
  2   0.0001     -1.44     0.06      -0.14    -0.00
  3   0.0081   -105.96    -0.11       2.87    -0.14
  4   0.0793  -1495.06     0.08      26.60    -0.25
  5   0.0795  -1497.86     0.10      26.80    -0.06
  6   0.0849  -1633.46    -0.07      28.31    -0.03
  7   0.1450  -3269.13    -0.02      40.62    -0.09
  8   0.1475  -3340.28    -0.08      41.25     0.15
  9   0.1476  -3343.39     0.08      41.17     0.07
 10   0.1477  -3347.22     0.01      41.16     0.06
 11   0.1641  -3817.53     0.00      43.09     0.06
 12   0.1642  -3821.43    -0.08      43.25     0.22
 13   0.2403  -5883.26     0.07      44.76     0.08
 14   0.2652  -6449.12    -0.05      42.65    -0.02
 15   0.2654  -6452.46     0.01      42.52    -0.12
 16   0.3390  -7578.93    -0.04      31.44     0.03
 17   0.3416  -7601.47    -0.12      30.92    -0.00
 18   0.3964  -7763.49     0.04      19.09    -0.03
 19   0.4155  -7677.55     0.14      14.77     0.00
 20   0.9640   5784.11    -0.04      87.62    -0.03
 21   0.9640   5784.01     0.01      87.67     0.02
 22   0.9641   5783.91    -0.03      87.49    -0.17
 23   1.1252   2854.60     0.04     142.09    -0.02
 24   1.1415   2391.80    -0.05     144.99     0.07
 25   1.2042    603.62     0.20     150.03    -0.08
 26   1.2179    230.98     0.02     149.95    -0.10
 27   1.2753  -1136.78    -0.15     146.06     0.28
 28   1.2781  -1192.13     0.04     145.38    -0.04
 29   1.2947  -1502.80     0.05     142.99     0.03
 30   1.3574  -2253.54    -0.11     130.66    -0.04
 31   1.3848  -2346.75    -0.10     124.30     0.01
 32   2.0291  10669.95     0.08     219.00     0.06
 33   2.0291  10669.52    -0.17     218.96     0.02
 34   2.1136   8790.89     0.02     245.20    -0.06
 35   2.2635   4692.56     0.06     252.36    -0.04
 36   2.3512   3301.88     0.06     236.16     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GN54    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.353    39.369    39.337
ecceobj         0.168     0.169     0.167
incobj          1.232     1.232     1.232
qmin           32.079    32.062    32.141
qmax           47.598    47.693    47.680
amean          39.458    39.458    39.458
amin           38.885    38.885    38.894
amax           40.077    40.086    40.095
emean           0.167     0.168     0.166
emin            0.145     0.146     0.147
emax            0.190     0.191     0.189
imean           3.522     4.111     3.168
imin            1.493     1.649     1.526
imax            5.347     6.169     4.844
excite_mean     0.179     0.184     0.176
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.015     3.013     3.016

libcent 0       179.4     180.7     180.6
libamp  0       134.5     137.8     134.4
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       189.1     163.4     171.6
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9