Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GK54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GK54    
# Created Tue Nov 30 02:13:18 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     38 observations of     39
# Arc:   4.28y
# First observation: 2013/03/16
#  Last observation: 2017/06/25
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000166   0.035537  -0.000237   0.020727   0.034434   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    12.62 DOF:     70 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.26    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.578771E-05  3.444266E-02  8.090653E-06  2.017539E-02  3.305266E-02 -9.260277E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.6311E-13 -1.7476E-13  3.0412E-14 -5.9967E-14 -6.6550E-14 -8.1018E-13
 -1.7476E-13  3.0896E-13 -8.3732E-14  1.6479E-13  2.5437E-13  2.2237E-12
  3.0412E-14 -8.3732E-14  2.5332E-13 -1.3361E-13 -6.9210E-14 -7.0271E-13
 -5.9967E-14  1.6479E-13 -1.3361E-13  1.3758E-13  1.3569E-13  1.3843E-12
 -6.6550E-14  2.5437E-13 -6.9210E-14  1.3569E-13  3.2509E-13  1.8269E-12
 -8.1018E-13  2.2237E-12 -7.0271E-13  1.3843E-12  1.8269E-12  1.8692E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.587398 -158.708874    0.428692   -0.040490   -0.897543  2456367.754448
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456360.5000  =  2013/03/09
Mean Anomaly:          325.59096 +/-     0.007
Argument of Peri:       57.70364 +/-     0.011
Long of Asc Node:      204.76058 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            30.55939 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.31191859 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.45700287 +/-    0.0046
Time of Perihelion: 2465013.2585 +/-       0.8
Perihelion:          27.14963009 +/-    0.0057
Aphelion:            51.76437565 +/-    0.0076
Period (y)              247.8531 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -29.15285971 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y          -10.89923670 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z           -1.36557131 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00167335 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00240682 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00170425 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   31.15360934 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     30.25475464 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef:  8.61

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GK54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GK54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 03  16.25367  13 14 45.18   -10 42 08.8   23.7r 15GK54    W84  C~3jdt      
2013 03  16.25367  13 14 45.215  -10 42 08.38  23.5r 15GK54    807  C~3jdt      
2013 03  16.30082  13 14 44.94   -10 42 06.8         15GK54    W84  C~3jdt      
2013 03  16.30082  13 14 44.992  -10 42 06.51        15GK54    807  C~3jdt      
2013 03  16.35904  13 14 44.660  -10 42 04.15        15GK54    807  C~3jdt      
2013 03  16.35905  13 14 44.63   -10 42 04.5         15GK54    W84  C~3jdt      
2015 04  11.41445  13 31 06.642  -09 41 01.43  23.2r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.36711  13 31 00.993  -09 40 16.37  23.5r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.40803  13 31 00.739  -09 40 14.42  23.2r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  12.45503  13 31 00.451  -09 40 12.09  23.5r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  14.46499  13 30 48.479  -09 38 36.63  23.1r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  18.42564  13 30 24.887  -09 35 28.18  23.3r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  18.47335  13 30 24.604  -09 35 25.87  23.4r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 04  19.27327  13 30 19.86   -09 34 47.5         15GK54    W84  C~2zsP      
2015 04  21.27425  13 30 07.98   -09 33 12.5   24.1V 15GK54    W84  C~2zsP      
2015 04  22.27395  13 30 02.10   -09 32 25.4         15GK54    W84  C~2zsP      
2015 05  25.37637  13 27 09.687  -09 08 29.72  23.6r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 05  25.43418  13 27 09.434  -09 08 27.52  23.6r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 06  21.32593  13 25 52.684  -08 55 15.89  23.5r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 06  22.28249  13 25 51.379  -08 54 56.20  23.7r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 07  12.27649  13 25 48.560  -08 50 33.65  23.5r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 07  15.26670  13 25 52.255  -08 50 19.34  23.4r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2015 07  19.26636  13 25 58.867  -08 50 09.85  23.5r 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 02  04.61430  13 45 02.116  -09 57 57.63  23.7w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 02  11.59752  13 44 55.181  -09 55 37.69  23.5w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 03  11.60487  13 43 26.716  -09 40 20.19  23.4w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  03.47362  13 41 27.114  -09 23 41.98  23.4w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  03.47768  13 41 27.091  -09 23 41.80  23.5w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  09.45477  13 40 51.942  -09 19 00.95  23.5w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 04  09.45883  13 40 51.912  -09 19 00.76  23.4w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  01.46556  13 38 41.098  -09 01 48.45  23.7w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  02.33963  13 38 36.104  -09 01 08.71  23.6w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  07.34298  13 38 07.964  -08 57 25.80  23.5w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 05  29.32744  13 36 21.801  -08 42 58.41  23.6w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 06  04.38987  13 35 59.209  -08 39 41.21  23.8w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 06  27.32010  13 35 08.053  -08 30 45.11  23.7w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 06  27.32513  13 35 08.047  -08 30 45.04  23.7w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2016 07  07.31590  13 35 04.550  -08 28 44.97  23.5w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      
2017 06  25.27772  13 44 43.641  -08 07 33.35  23.5w 15GK54    568  C~2lV7      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.32
     2   0.0000     -0.32    -0.18      -0.58    -0.26
     3   0.0001     -4.35    -0.08      -0.07    -0.14
     4   0.0001     -3.75 (   0.52)      0.49 (   0.42)
     5   0.0003     -9.17     0.19       0.83     0.26
     6   0.0003     -9.45    -0.08       0.34    -0.23
     7   2.0703  12113.34    -0.12    8798.96     0.04
     8   2.0729  12018.72     0.08    8810.30    -0.03
     9   2.0730  12014.50    -0.00    8810.74    -0.06
    10   2.0731  12009.66    -0.08    8811.34     0.02
    11   2.0786  11809.16    -0.03    8835.31    -0.03
    12   2.0895  11413.95    -0.07    8882.73    -0.02
    13   2.0896  11409.19     0.00    8883.34     0.05
    14   2.0918  11329.54     0.15    8893.31     0.21
    15   2.0973  11130.50    -0.12    8917.22     0.15
    16   2.1000  11031.95     0.30    8929.11     0.06
    17   2.1906   8122.32     0.02    9324.97    -0.02
    18   2.1908   8118.01    -0.10    9325.63    -0.02
    19   2.2644   6766.23     0.03    9641.57    -0.03
    20   2.2670   6740.94     0.03    9652.73     0.02
    21   2.3218   6604.97    -0.07    9881.78     0.01
    22   2.3299   6650.69     0.11    9915.45    -0.16
    23   2.3409   6738.48    -0.03    9960.68    -0.03
    24   2.8894  24116.99    -0.02   12350.72     0.03
    25   2.9085  23969.60     0.00   12445.61     0.02
    26   2.9880  22399.96    -0.04   12836.25    -0.07
    27   3.0506  20366.21     0.01   13132.38     0.03
    28   3.0506  20365.82     0.03   13132.42     0.03
    29   3.0669  19772.99     0.06   13206.94    -0.01
    30   3.0670  19772.50    -0.01   13206.95    -0.04
    31   3.1272  17572.10    -0.07   13469.31    -0.12
    32   3.1296  17488.01    -0.00   13479.55     0.04
    33   3.1433  17014.63     0.02   13536.18     0.03
    34   3.2035  15219.73    -0.05   13772.86     0.06
    35   3.2201  14833.30    -0.01   13834.70     0.02
    36   3.2829  13925.79    -0.04   14058.20    -0.08
    37   3.2829  13925.68    -0.04   14058.23    -0.09
    38   3.3102  13833.29    -0.00   14151.67    -0.04
    39   4.2766  21487.64     0.07   18503.89     0.07

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GK54    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.329    39.339    39.319
ecceobj         0.311     0.312     0.311
incobj         30.607    30.607    30.606
qmin           26.135    26.160    26.031
qmax           53.479    53.325    53.679
amean          39.453    39.454    39.452
amin           38.991    38.958    38.998
amax           40.008    40.018    40.066
emean           0.274     0.271     0.276
emin            0.182     0.182     0.184
emax            0.338     0.334     0.340
imean          31.902    32.004    31.826
imin           30.183    30.321    30.150
imax           33.974    33.987    33.957
excite_mean     0.597     0.597     0.597
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.630     2.629     2.630

libcent 0       179.1     179.8     179.3
libamp  0       101.6     103.8      99.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean        88.6      88.8      88.3
kozaiamp         56.4      58.2      55.1