Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GF54

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GF54    
# Created Thu Dec  9 02:13:12 2021
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     36 observations of     36
# Arc:   2.10y
# First observation: 2015/02/20
#  Last observation: 2017/03/29
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000259   0.023082   0.000007   0.004353   0.024884   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    23.55 DOF:     66 RMS:  0.14
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.56    0.36
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.456908E-05  2.310888E-02  2.835324E-06  4.392809E-03  2.517623E-02  7.209712E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3528E-13 -2.3342E-14 -5.0364E-15  2.0035E-14  1.7119E-13  2.3837E-12
 -2.3342E-14  2.3203E-13 -1.1387E-14  4.5631E-14  1.3851E-13  5.4122E-12
 -5.0364E-15 -1.1387E-14  1.0483E-13 -8.1192E-14 -1.2103E-14 -4.5197E-13
  2.0035E-14  4.5631E-14 -8.1192E-14  1.1058E-13  4.8345E-14  1.8109E-12
  1.7119E-13  1.3851E-13 -1.2103E-14  4.8345E-14  2.6354E-13  5.7419E-12
  2.3837E-12  5.4122E-12 -4.5197E-13  1.8109E-12  5.7419E-12  2.1480E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    0.214314 -156.736155    0.777377    0.002416   -0.606295  2457073.958438
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:           78.39992 +/-     0.086
Argument of Peri:      251.01520 +/-     0.042
Long of Asc Node:      201.03960 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            10.69495 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.27706924 +/-    0.0005
Semi-Major Axis:     39.52574077 +/-    0.0123
Time of Perihelion: 2437303.9195 +/-      19.7
Perihelion:          28.57437368 +/-    0.0223
Aphelion:            50.47710786 +/-    0.0258
Period (y)              248.5011 +/-      0.12
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -37.35719497 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y          -15.21318142 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z            0.14867822 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT         0.00027029 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00262326 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00048073 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   40.33637330 +/-    0.0007
Geocenter to KBO     39.72000818 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  8.50

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GF54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GF54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  20.45766  13 26 25.612  -08 50 23.95  24.7r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 03  18.50553  13 24 56.024  -08 40 18.89  23.9r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 03  20.50715  13 24 47.607  -08 39 23.10  24.6r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 04  11.39801  13 23 07.692  -08 28 29.43  24.7r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 04  12.35069  13 23 03.186  -08 27 59.76  24.2r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 04  12.39166  13 23 02.981  -08 27 58.38  24.0r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 04  12.43732  13 23 02.771  -08 27 57.30  24.7r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 04  14.44843  13 22 53.255  -08 26 55.31  24.8r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 04  16.38638  13 22 44.105  -08 25 55.24  23.8r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 04  18.40224  13 22 34.601  -08 24 53.69  24.4r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 05  16.24826  13 20 33.450  -08 11 40.22  24.2r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 05  25.35722  13 20 01.264  -08 08 05.96  24.8r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 05  25.40100  13 20 01.114  -08 08 04.82  25.0r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 06  21.30955  13 19 00.265  -08 00 59.07  25.0r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 06  22.26586  13 18 59.178  -08 00 50.35  24.9r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 07  12.25999  13 18 55.118  -07 59 42.89  24.7r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2015 07  19.29173  13 19 02.266  -08 00 10.93  24.5r 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 02  04.55925  13 32 13.674  -09 09 10.38  25.0w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 02  10.54717  13 32 05.934  -09 08 05.50  24.4w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 02  10.59675  13 32 05.843  -09 08 04.92  25.0w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 03  12.48022  13 30 39.634  -08 58 02.60  25.4w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 04  03.44530  13 29 05.234  -08 47 44.76  24.6w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 04  09.42510  13 28 37.316  -08 44 44.29  24.7w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 05  01.36049  13 26 55.620  -08 33 49.13  24.8w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 05  02.30311  13 26 51.426  -08 33 22.43  24.6w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 05  06.31289  13 26 34.061  -08 31 30.61  24.6w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 05  28.28005  13 25 12.002  -08 22 37.78  24.9w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 06  04.36154  13 24 51.790  -08 20 23.98  24.9w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 06  27.28890  13 24 13.172  -08 15 52.94  24.8w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 06  27.29295  13 24 13.164  -08 15 52.60  24.9w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 07  07.29150  13 24 10.431  -08 15 19.36  24.8w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2016 07  07.29554  13 24 10.434  -08 15 19.51  25.2w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2017 02  24.64250  13 36 50.214  -09 18 51.90        15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2017 03  28.57437  13 34 52.779  -09 05 49.26        15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2017 03  29.43565  13 34 48.983  -09 05 24.47  24.8w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      
2017 03  29.45933  13 34 48.866  -09 05 23.74  24.0w 15GF54    568  C~2lV6      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.02
     2   0.0713  -1457.82    -0.32      70.25    -0.31
     3   0.0768  -1594.43     0.09      75.78    -0.08
     4   0.1367  -3213.43     0.10     132.39    -0.17
     5   0.1393  -3286.54    -0.04     135.07     0.10
     6   0.1394  -3289.88    -0.19     135.22     0.16
     7   0.1396  -3293.17     0.07     135.06    -0.08
     8   0.1451  -3447.33     0.10     140.10    -0.08
     9   0.1504  -3595.74     0.03     145.35     0.32
    10   0.1559  -3749.59     0.20     150.00    -0.01
    11   0.2321  -5715.02    -0.11     216.02    -0.04
    12   0.2571  -6238.80     0.06     236.29    -0.07
    13   0.2572  -6241.29    -0.07     236.52     0.08
    14   0.3309  -7239.69     0.11     293.50     0.00
    15   0.3335  -7257.95    -0.04     295.54     0.07
    16   0.3882  -7339.22    -0.04     335.56     0.06
    17   0.4075  -7230.13     0.07     349.30    -0.01
    18   0.9558   5210.49     0.19     850.47     0.06
    19   0.9722   5079.99    -0.01     868.87     0.03
    20   0.9723   5078.52    -0.12     868.91    -0.05
    21   1.0569   3668.92     0.23     960.94    -0.05
    22   1.1170   2140.41    -0.03    1021.07     0.01
    23   1.1334   1689.12     0.11    1036.40     0.03
    24   1.1934     45.66    -0.22    1088.84     0.36
    25   1.1960    -22.01    -0.56    1090.66     0.06
    26   1.2070   -302.69     0.20    1099.34     0.01
    27   1.2671  -1631.02    -0.03    1143.67     0.00
    28   1.2865  -1959.23     0.12    1156.76     0.07
    29   1.3493  -2592.17     0.15    1195.84    -0.14
    30   1.3493  -2592.41    -0.03    1196.12     0.12
    31   1.3767  -2642.43    -0.05    1211.93    -0.13
    32   1.3767  -2642.33     0.04    1211.80    -0.26
    33   2.0128   9240.22    -0.07    1803.14     0.13
    34   2.1003   7332.66    -0.11    1899.26    -0.16
    35   2.1026   7271.19     0.16    1901.84    -0.01
    36   2.1027   7269.31     0.02    1901.89    -0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GF54    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.202    39.234    39.169
ecceobj         0.277     0.279     0.276
incobj         10.741    10.741    10.741
qmin           28.086    27.874    28.065
qmax           51.557    51.638    51.437
amean          39.455    39.455    39.455
amin           38.981    38.986    38.968
amax           40.024    39.997    40.013
emean           0.249     0.252     0.247
emin            0.190     0.185     0.190
emax            0.289     0.293     0.287
imean          12.708    12.392    12.996
imin           10.319     9.773    10.612
imax           15.362    15.465    15.990
excite_mean     0.334     0.333     0.336
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.924     2.925     2.923

libcent 0       178.3     179.4     179.8
libamp  0        93.1      87.5      98.8
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       280.6     273.5     287.3
kozaiamp         69.9      77.1      74.2